Downtrend impulse wave: In 2nd Wave
Updated
Good morning traders. Hope your cup of joe is good and sets your day right!
Inverted Chart
*NOTE* I have my monitor in portrait view which may make the chart look bad for those in a widescreen view. Let me know if I need to screen shot anything for a better/clearer view.
Looking at the Weekly chart today, it seems the currently weekly candle has already nearly touched the .236 fib and with 5 days left.
So lets assume this is a Impulse downtrend wave for this idea(also continuing my hypothesis from my last idea *attached*)
Once this correction wave (wave 2) completes, next stop will be .618 fib. I have a feeling that when it travels to that fib, it will close below the .618 level.
Now, the 'scary' bit.
Elliott Wave theory has changed since it's inception. Current market data suggests, or rather has shown, that waves travel more frequently in a 3 wave impulse system rather than a 5 wave impulse. So hopefully after touching that .618 level, BTC will consolidate and finally attempt to figure out where it's value really stands.
However, the possibility of a 5 wave system could happen. If so, BTC could touch as low as 13.7k. But trying to predict that is weeks away and requires the above for any real confirmation if that could be a possibility.
I personally do think it will happen though.
Why do I think that?
2021, The year of Crypto! Crypto's popularity has grown a lot and very quickly recently. Companies picking BTC and ALT coins for payments, banks are adding crypto(mainly BTC from what I've seen/read), and even governments around the world are seeing Crypto as a positive thing. Unfortunately my Gov. doesn't, and is currently against it.
With the adoption of BTC in things like, VISA, BANKS, and payments at places like Newegg, Overstock, Microsoft, Playboy, and more, BTC is probably going through a 're-evaluation' of it's worth and value.
If Bitcoin only kept being used for trading(mostly like the past), I could see it's value continuing to go up. Now that Bitcoin is being integrated into a real market for more real use, it's once
65K price tag makes no sense in that situation.
Technicals
MACD
Assuming the histogram stays symmetric in curvature shape, and assuming this week is the peak of that, there are several weeks worth left before the MACD pinches and closes to indicate a new uptrend.
Volume
Volume for the current candle is low, but there are 5 days left as well. The Volume MA/OCS is sloping downward still. That tells me there's not a lot of volume to make big movements in either direction, most importantly the one everyone wants which is back up in a uptrend.
RSI
It is pointing up and hasn't touched oversold. We are in the 2nd wave of a downtrend, so it makes sense that in this small uptrend gain, we will see the RSI slightly pointing up. I expect this to change over the next few days.
Stoch
Doesn't look great; sloping downward and crossed indicating further downtrend.
Thank you for reading, enjoy your day, and happy trading Traders!
Inverted Chart
*NOTE* I have my monitor in portrait view which may make the chart look bad for those in a widescreen view. Let me know if I need to screen shot anything for a better/clearer view.
Looking at the Weekly chart today, it seems the currently weekly candle has already nearly touched the .236 fib and with 5 days left.
So lets assume this is a Impulse downtrend wave for this idea(also continuing my hypothesis from my last idea *attached*)
Once this correction wave (wave 2) completes, next stop will be .618 fib. I have a feeling that when it travels to that fib, it will close below the .618 level.
Now, the 'scary' bit.
Elliott Wave theory has changed since it's inception. Current market data suggests, or rather has shown, that waves travel more frequently in a 3 wave impulse system rather than a 5 wave impulse. So hopefully after touching that .618 level, BTC will consolidate and finally attempt to figure out where it's value really stands.
However, the possibility of a 5 wave system could happen. If so, BTC could touch as low as 13.7k. But trying to predict that is weeks away and requires the above for any real confirmation if that could be a possibility.
I personally do think it will happen though.
Why do I think that?
2021, The year of Crypto! Crypto's popularity has grown a lot and very quickly recently. Companies picking BTC and ALT coins for payments, banks are adding crypto(mainly BTC from what I've seen/read), and even governments around the world are seeing Crypto as a positive thing. Unfortunately my Gov. doesn't, and is currently against it.
With the adoption of BTC in things like, VISA, BANKS, and payments at places like Newegg, Overstock, Microsoft, Playboy, and more, BTC is probably going through a 're-evaluation' of it's worth and value.
If Bitcoin only kept being used for trading(mostly like the past), I could see it's value continuing to go up. Now that Bitcoin is being integrated into a real market for more real use, it's once
65K price tag makes no sense in that situation.Technicals
MACD
Assuming the histogram stays symmetric in curvature shape, and assuming this week is the peak of that, there are several weeks worth left before the MACD pinches and closes to indicate a new uptrend.
Volume
Volume for the current candle is low, but there are 5 days left as well. The Volume MA/OCS is sloping downward still. That tells me there's not a lot of volume to make big movements in either direction, most importantly the one everyone wants which is back up in a uptrend.
RSI
It is pointing up and hasn't touched oversold. We are in the 2nd wave of a downtrend, so it makes sense that in this small uptrend gain, we will see the RSI slightly pointing up. I expect this to change over the next few days.
Stoch
Doesn't look great; sloping downward and crossed indicating further downtrend.
Thank you for reading, enjoy your day, and happy trading Traders!
Note
4 Days left on the weekly candle, and it's almost touched the .236 fib.Note
This looks to be spelling a bit of trouble. If the weekly candle doesn't close on the fib, we're looking at probably a larger correction wave. Waiting on the weekly candle to close for confirmation of course.
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