BTCUSD Weekly Chart: Bull vs. Bear

Updated

This is an EW analysis on the weekly chart for BTCUSD on a log scale. It removes a lot of the noise and provides more prospective on a relative basis with broader context. With this approach we can see the entire history of BTCUSD and get a better view where we are in the cycle of the larger wave sequence and is not intended to address any smaller time frame excursions.

The Intermediate wave sequence is labeled in light blue with parenthesis. We are currently in a corrective wave (4) position. The question is have we completed wave (4) and resumed the bullish trend and in the early stages of development of impulse wave (5) to complete impulse Primary Wave 1, Dark Blue circles, and register new ATH or is wave (4) still under way and not yet fully matured with more corrective price action is store.

There are reasonable arguments to support the bullish view as price action has met its minimal requirements to consider the correction complete and has printed an ABC Zig-Zag, labeled in pink circles. However, the primary guideline and most common retracement for corrections lie in the area of wave 4 of one lesser degree. In this case minor wave 4, labeled in green, and has a travel span between $5000 and $3000 and highlighted in yellow. Wave 4’s generally alternate in both form and time duration from that of wave 2’s. In this case intermediate wave (2) was a simple zig-zag and took quite a long time to unfold. So the most likely count for wave (4) would be a complex Flat or something other than a simple zig-zag and may unfold more quickly. It is certainly possible to unfold as a zig-zag and the rapid pace at which it unfolds may be enough to satisfy the guideline of alternation. How the sub-divisions of the larger wave unfold remain to be seen but under either scenario we would still be looking for intermediate wave(4) to extend itself to the area of minor wave 4, green, of one lesser degree and into our buy zone between $5000 and $3000.

Link for Daily chart and a more detailed view of intermediate wave (4):

“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”- Warren Buffet

Note

Yesterday I posted charts that favored further correction within intermediate wave (4) in our continuing quest to plot its completion in an effort to identify the resumption of the larger bullish trend. We had examined two possible counts, a Flat and a Zig-Zag both pointing in the same direction to the downside. With a hard rejection at $9755 opens the door to a third alternate count possibility. With the rejection at $9755 we now have three points to consider a potential contracting Triangle unfolding as part of a combination correction and also points to the downside before resuming the larger bullish trend.
Triangles are sideways movement that takes a long time to unfold and reflect the indecision of market participants. Triangle usually appear in a fourth wave position and generally follow an ABC initial corrective wave sequence forming a combination correction and are generally an indication that the larger bullish trend is about to resume. Triangles are terminal moves and price usually breaks the triangle with a thrust in the opposite direction of the larger trend before resuming the larger trend. The length of time it takes for triangles to unfold can simply wear us down and combined with the tendency of E waves to stage a false breakdown will put into question our conviction as to the resumption of the larger trend and challenge our psychological discipline and our emotional fortitude.
We’ll have to keep a close eye on it and see which count will unfold however I am confident that we have one more push lower before resuming the larger trend and breaking ATH.
Link to Daily Chart outlining our alternate triangle count: tradingview.com/chart/hFLmgOwp/

Note

The triangle in my last update has broken structure and so it is no longer valid. However I have not given up yet on a possible Triangle. I have adjusted the top line of the triangle so that wave C of the triangle coincides with a .618 fib level (very common levels for triangle waves) which lands at $10,000 and reflects a strong psychological level. Should this level hold I will keep this as our preferred and operative count.
However should $10,000 failed to hold as resistance we will have to consider an ABC flat as a more probable count in search of wave B of one larger degree. If we find ourselves having difficulty making sense out of the market with overlapping price action we are probably in a wave B. Wave B of 4 often times will breed complacency and lead us into a false security that the market has resumed the larger trend only to set us up for a bull trap. Many times we call the completion of wave 4’s long before their maturity and full development.
Fourth wave positions are corrective waves and they correct the advances made in the previous impulse (wave 3) and they form a basing process for the onset of the ensuing final impulse in the sequence (wave 5). The primary guideline and most common retracement for a wave 4 is the area of wave 4 of one lesser degree. Wave 4’s are generally the most difficult to count and more often than not unfold in a complex formation. While wave 2’s can scare the sh!t out of us because of the depth of the correction, wave 4’s simply wear us down because of the complexity of its count and the extended time it takes to unfold.
They rarely unfold as a single ABC but rather as a combination correction such as a double-three or triple-three. A double-three is the most common and is two three wave corrections in succession, ABC + ABC. In Elliott Wave Theory a Triangle that follows an initial ABC corrective wave sequence is considered a double-three even though the Triangle has five overlapping waves. And the completion of the Triangle is also considered the completion of wave B of one larger degree and technically labeled as an X wave. The X nomenclature simply refers to a combination.
Fourth wave position almost always alternate in both form and time duration than that of wave 2’s. While wave 2’s, generally speaking, are a deep and sharp correction, wave 4’s tend to be more shallow and meander in a slower sideways type movement. This can happen in reverse order but it is not common; what is more important is the guideline of alternation. There should also be alternation within the wave as well. If a wave 4 correction begins with a three wave ABC zig-zag construction for wave A then look for an ABC flat or a triangle formation for wave B and look for wave C to unfold as a 5 wave impulse or an ending diagonal.
We’ll continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as we look for price action that either confirm or invalidate our thesis.

Note

Our Triangle remains intact for now and continues to be the preferred and operative count. And while we have several daily bearish candles that support this count we are not out of the woods yet. We would need a break below 8647 to add credence to this count as we can easily continue the march northward fueled by the organic bullish energy. So should the triangle break structure we should prepare ourselves for an alternate interpretation and allow ourselves to quickly adapt to the changing market structure and adjust our perspective so we are not caught off guard by unexpected events.

We are still in search of the likely completion of wave B of (4) and should our preferred count fail the next most likely structure is a flat. We can safely eliminate an expanded flat and a running flat as price structure does not support their development. So by elimination we are left with a regular flat to consider, labeled in pink circles. Wave b of the flat is roughly 90% of wave a of the flat and therefore satisfies the minimal requirement for a regular flat.

Corrective waves like to stay within channels so if we connect the bottoms of the potential flat and draw a parallel using wave a of the flat as the starting point we can then extend out to estimate the area of wave c of the flat. Fibonacci time extensions are also useful to help locate a likely completion of wave c of the flat. Common extensions are equality with wave a and 1.382 fib extension of wave a.

This presents us with a major problem and conflict because all of the bulls out there are labeling our wave a of the flat as wave 1 of a new impulsive move and wave b of our flat as wave 2 of the impulse and is a perfectly reasonable wave count and interpretation. Well any break above 11,780 (our wave a of the flat and wave I for the bullish count) the bulls will consider confirmation that wave 3 of the bullish count is under way and buyers will pile in convinced the bullish move has resumed. Herein lies the rub- the bull trap.

How do we reconcile these two perfectly reasonably interpretations 1) the bearish view that favors further corrective price action and 2) the bullish view that favors that the bottom is in and we have started in on the early stages of development of the next impulsive move.

There are several major factors that lead me to favor the bearish scenario.
1) Wave 4’s rarely unfold as a single ABC correction. To take the bullish view would presuppose that this is the rare occasion that goes against the primary guidelines. Is it possible, yes; is it probable, no.
2) Wave 4’s primary guide for its correction lies in the area of wave 4 of on lesser degree. The exception to this guideline is if the 5th wave of the preceding impulse was an extended wave and it was not; wave 3 was the extended wave of the preceding impulse.
3) Wave 4’s generally take a long time to unfold. Ziz-zags, flats and triangles are all ways a 4th wave can extend itself and delay the onset and resumption of the bullish trend.
4) Wave personality: No waves are identical as we can’t step into the same river twice. However, the emotional swings from pessimism to optimism and back again present in corrective price structure are similar in nature are likely to react to the extremes of corrective channels.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds. Be careful and good luck trading.
Here is the link to the daily chart and alternate count should the triangle fail.

Note

Our triangle remains intact for now and it appears we are completing wave D of the triangle. This continues to be our preferred count. We have been tracking this triangle as our operative count and have offered an alternate count in the event of a triangle failure; namely a flat that would travel to 14,000 area before breaking down (and still possible). However we have not yet considered the implications of the triangle failing to the downside. Triangle waves generally travel to the .618 fib level of alternating waves within the triangle. The .618 level for wave D falls at 6640. This level needs to hold for the triangle to advance in wave E of the triangle. The market is not looking very bullish and should 6640 give way it appears that 5000 to 3000 becomes within reach. So I have posted this alternate count in the event of a triangle failure to the downside. It is a larger double zig-zag; two ABC’s connected by an X wave. The first target is equality with wave A at 4595 and the second target would be .618 of wave W at 3358. This level is less likely however would be a bargain buying opportunity as we continue to look for the completion of larger (4) and the onset of the fifth and final wave of the intermediate wave sequence.
We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds. Never get married to a position. Keep an open mind and have a plan for any eventuality.

Note

Our Triangle remains intact and continues to be our preferred count. We got a nice bounce at the 7000 level, however, wave D may not be complete yet as the .618 lies at 6640. So we are not caught off guard I have adjusted the bottom line of the triangle to form the B-D trendline at .618 at 6640 that allows for further decline and still maintain structure. So a break below 7000 does not invalid this count. So long as 6640 holds the triangle remains valid. A break below level we could see a quick fall to 5000. Let's see how she unfolds. Have a great weekend !

Note

Our Triangle remains intact for now and continues to be our preferred count. In my last update I pointed out and highlighted to be on guard for the possibility of further decline in the completion of wave D of the Triangle while maintaining structure and shift our focus off the 7000 level. The market fell to 6628 over the weekend and almost to the pip of the .618 D wave fib extension before stalling. I should note that wave D appears to be more of a five wave structure (NOT common for triangle waves but valid). If this level holds we should see price advance in an ABC structure or a triangle within the triangle for wave E. Given the overall bearish nature of price development and current negative market sediment I would be on guard for the possibility of a truncated E wave. E waves often times will under shoot or over shoot its technical target; in this case at 8800ish.

Should our recent low not hold our alternate count would come into play (see May 29th update) and we could see another sharp drop in the market and a free fall to 5000 and lower and place price squarely in the area of wave 4 of one lower degree before finding its terminal target between 3000 and 5000 and our long awaited buy zone.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds. “The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”- Warren Buffet

Note

Thanks to our friend dmazar101 we have a chart with pre-2012 data and I, as he, were interested how the pre-2012 data may change the wave count. So here is my response to dmazar101 and a clean chart connecting the intermediate (1)-(3) wave and a parallel (2)-(4) trend line and falls in line with our previous post. Thanks again to @dmazar101.

dmazar101, Hi. Sorry for my delayed response. But thanks so much for the feed with pre-2012 data. I had looked before on trading view but must have overlooked it somehow. Anyway I finally got a chance to take a look at it and appears the main difference is the internal decomposition of intermediate (1) and you can see from the attached chart I have adjusted Minor wave 1 and 2 (Green) of intermediate wave (1) light blue and it fits so much better. But it appears to be a difference without a distinction from the larger view and EW perspective as the intermediate wave levels are the same with small differences due to different feeds.

Now that I have a clean chart to work with (thanks to you) I have drawn a trend line connecting intermediate wave (1) and (3) and have drawn parallel starting with intermediate wave (2) completion and we can get an idea where intermediate wave (4) may complete and it appears to be in line with my previous post and places price squarely into the area of wave 4 of one lesser degree: minor wave 4 , green and into our long awaited buy zone between 3000 and 5000. It could also drop lower as the intermediate count remains valid above 1177: completion of intermediate wave (1). We will have to see how price unfolds.

Thanks again for bringing that to my attention and good luck trading. Stay in touch.

Note

Well, clearly price is breaking down and in line with our overall short term bearish bias while we patiently wait for intermediate wave (4) to mature and fully develop. We indicated in our previous post that if 6640 gives way that we should shift our focus to our alternate count (see update 29 May 2018). Our alternate count remains valid and points to the downside and reflective of further corrective price action.

However, I would like to review our triangle that we have been tracking for so long. First, let me start by saying, that when we look for price patterns or wave progressions still under development we need to continually keep an eye on the market and look for price action that either supports or challenges our view of the market and remain flexible and quickly adapt to changing market conditions. This is why it is important to always have an alternate count in the event our preferred count fails or breaks structure. We also need to go back and properly label the failed structure so we are better equipped to follow the wave that is actually unfolding. We need to account for that price action and put it in proper context. Our alternate count is one way we could account for price as the structural development remains intact.

It is also worth considering that our triangle did not fail but rather completed wave D at 7000 as originally drawn followed by a very truncated wave E to completed the triangle. If this is the case we would want to see impulsive type movement following the completion of wave E. If we drill down to lower time frames we can clearly see that type of impulse underway.

While it is not yet clear which of these counts is in operation they both nonetheless point to the downside with the expectation of lower lows before resuming the larger bullish trend and the completion of the final and fifth wave of the intermediate wave sequence.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

Price continues to support our short term bearish bias in search of the completion of intermediate wave (4). It appears that we have completed the first leg down and in the early stages of development of a 5 wave structure following a very truncated wave E and triangle completion and subsequent breakdown. The break to the downside substantially increases the probability of continued downward price action and into our buy zone between 3000 and 5000. However, it should be noted that a measured triangle move takes us all the way down to 1500. I know it sounds impossible but it is possible. I don’t know if we will go that low so we should keep a close eye on the current impulse to see how she unfolds. I have charted a possible path based on fib ratios in line with EW guidelines that are sure to change as price unfolds. Currently we are looking for price to correct in Minute wave 2 somewhere in the neighbor of 7000 to 7200 before Minute wave 3 gets underway. Once we have confirmed wave two is complete we can adjust our fib ratios to estimate wave 3 targets.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

Price has unfolded to the down side and in line with our bearish view however I have adjusted the current impulsive count (see 4 hr chart) to reflect recent price action and what appears to be a better fit. Our immediate targets for Minute wave 1 lies between 5723 and 5392. I originally had this as completed but the sub- divisions seem to fit better under our revised count. I started to take a harder look at the sub-divisions following price failure to breach 6850. The recent drop below this year’s low at 5920 is very bearish and supports our current and revised count.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds. Be patient and let price come to us.

4HR Chart:

Note

Prices continues to support our view of the market and our current impulsive count to the downside. It appears we have now completed minute wave 1 at 5780. Minute wave 2 should unfold as a 3 wave abc structure before minute wave 3 gets underway and we should expect minute wave 3 to unfold as a 5 wave structure with a target near 4200.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

4Hr Chart:

Note

We were expecting an abc zig-zag correction for minute wave 2 and it appears to have invalidated. It is too early to call a bottom with regard to current price action however it appears the correction is unfolding more in line with a flat. I am currently labeling this as a regular flat just so we have something to work with as I am sure we are all trying to make sense out of current price action but this could easily morph into an expanded flat or a running flat as there is no evidence the pattern is complete. A break below 5780 would lead me to believe that an expanded flat or a running flat would be more likely. A flat, any flat, in wave 2 position of a bearish impulse is very bearish by its nature. A flat correction is different from zig-zags in that the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zig-zag, the B wave reaction seems to inherit this lack of counter-trend pressure and terminates near the start of wave A. Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zig-zags. This tends to occur when then trend of one larger degree is strong and is reflective of the impulsive continuation of one larger degree.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provides updates as price unfolds.

Note

Well, this is the quickest update I have ever posted. AS we can see price made a lower low from our last update just a few hours ago and still no evidence that wave (b) is complete but has retested the bottom of the previous impulse at 5780 so I am not ready to give up on a regular flat yet and keep it as our operative count but I have adjust wave c target to 6365. This wave c should unfold as a 5 wave structure.

Should we break convincingly below 5780 I will switch my count to an expanded flat. In expanded flats, wave B ends beyond the the low of the previous impulse (the start of wave A) and wave C ends more substantially beyond the completion of wave A.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

Price unfolded in line with our previous post and over shot our target and appears now to have completed a 5 wave structure for wave c of ii on the lower time frames. However should wave c of ii further extend itself or should wave ii evolve into a complex correction any further upward movement should be limited to 6750 as we look for wave iii to get underway to the downside with targets near 4000.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

Appears I prematurely called for the completion of wave c of ii however the limits we set yesterday still hold. It looks like have one more small push to the upside to complete wave 5 of c of ii. The 6750ish level should hold as we look for wave iii to get underway to the downside with targets near 4000. Wave iii should unfold as a 5 wave structure.
We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

I am still expecting one more small push to the upside to complete the wave sequence however it may not breach our recent high at 6664. I have labeled the micro degree (orange) and the technical terminal target is at 6658 (creating a truncated 5th wave at the micro level) so long as 6304 holds as support. At any rate the limits we set early this week at 6750ish should contain price as we look for minute wave iii to get underway with a terminal target near 4000.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

Price has unfolded in line with our previous post and made another push to the upside and slightly exceeded our limit before stalling at 6792. However price has failed to develop any real bearish impulsive type movement that we were expecting. Following our recent high at 6792 price action appears more corrective than impulsive. We need to break below 6413 and 6365 and eventually 6259 to gain a level of confidence that minute wave ii has in fact completed and minute wave iii is underway.

The most common fib retracement level for a wave 2 correction is the .618 and that lies at 7022 (see post of 26 June). So there is still room for further advances while maintaining the overall bearish structure. However to gain confidence that we have made the turn I would want to see price stay within the area of wave 4 of one lesser degree which has a limit at 6841.

So for now my working count favors a bearish impulse but we need to start breaking down soon, alternatively we will have to consider a more complex correction for minute wave ii.

Note

Price has made yet another push to the upside before stalling at 6820 (just below the limit of wave (iv) of one lesser degree at 6842). Our friend deraltekoenig had put on notice last week of the possibility of wave 4 at the micro level may still be underway and unfolding as an expanded flat or a running flat. It appears to have unfolded as a running flat as wave C remained within the limits of wave A.
Congratulations to deraltekoenig for what seems to be the more appropriate call and allowed price to push to higher highs in wave V. Each of the highs in this sequence however has been shallower than the previous high and each of the five waves appear to have unfolded more in line with an ABC format suggesting that the overall structure of wave C of ii may be an ending diagonal and not so impulsive as first appeared.

I have relabeled the chart as an ending diagonal. Bottom line is that we are still expecting a reversal as a rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began (5780) and typically much further. The support levels we identified last week at 6413, 6365 and eventually 6259 need to give way as early confirmation signs that minute wave iii is underway with a terminal target between 4805 and 3561.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

Chart correction: I had mislabeled the location of subminuette wave iv completion. I have adjusted the chart to show the proper location. This changes the bottom line of the diagonal slightly with no changes in our conclusions as they remain the same with the expectations of a sharp drop.

Note

Price unfolded in line with our previous post and made a sharp decline and appears to have completed minuette wave (i) at 6270. We are expecting price to correct in the area of 6540-6600 before another sharp decline with targets between 5660 and 6000.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

It looks like I may have jumped the gun in calling the completion of minuette wave (i) as it seems to have had more room to the downside. So to reflect recent price action I have adjusted the completion level for minuette wave (i) to 6085 and likewise have adjusted the internals for wave (i). Also, I have re-drawn the fibs for the anticipated levels for wave (ii) correction and the projection for wave (iii) accordingly.

Note

To reflect recent price action we adjusted the completion of minuette wave (i) to 6072. Minuette wave (ii) appears to be unfolding as a ABC zig-zag. Micro wave C equality with wave A is at 6386 and place wave (ii) within the limits of wave iv of one lower degree and the corrective channel and previous support, now resistance. So we are looking for price to push slightly higher in the 6400ish area followed by a sharp drop as we look for minuette wave (iii) to get underway. This should be the strongest and deepest part of the current decline as this will be a three of a three; minuette wave (iii) of minute wave ((iii)). It should also sub-divide into a five wave structure. We also adjusted the wave (iii) projections to between 5222 and 5676.

We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

Price has clearly invalidated our short term count as the bulls came in with force. However don’t be so quick to board the moon rocket as we are still trading below our longer term X wave triangle at 7790 which leaves us in a very grey zone. We need additional price data to resolve the conflict between the short and long term view. I am not ready to abandon our longer term view while price remains below 7790. So there are no updates at this time as we let price unfold and show us a clearer picture as we review the charts for possible alternate counts. I will update the charts as soon as possible.

Note

As I indicated in my last post I have been waiting for additional data to see if 7790 would hold and to get a clearer picture. While it is still a bit early to completely disregard the bears I am posting this alternate count that suggest the bottom may be in and if so I would expect the current upward movement to unfold as an impulse and minute wave ((iii)) is still unfolding and while it is too early to call I expect the sequence to complete somewhere around 9900 for the first leg of the minor wave sequence (green).
We will continue to monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

In our last post we started tracking what could be a new impulsive move to the upside on the daily chart. That count remains intact and if correct we should see some impulsive type movement to the upside with targets near 9000ish.

Lets drop down to the 4HR chart and take a look at the wave development. Minute wave ((iii)) appears to have completed at 8496 and minute wave ((iv)) appears to be in its later stages of development. It has traveled to the wave (iv) area of on lower degree in a three wave combo WXY with overlapping price action. Price needs to remain above 6820 to keep this count valid.

As I have mentioned before, even though we are plotting an impulse to the upside, I have not yet totally dismissed the bears yet. A break down below 6820 and we could still be looking at 5000 and lower.

We will continue monitor the wave development and provide updates as price unfolds.

Note

Our bullish count on the 4HR chart needs to stay above 6820 to remain valid. It looks like we are threading the needle as we hit 6835 and are moving sideways. We need to see price advance in an impulsive manner in order for the bulls to regain confidence.

A break below 6820 will invalidate this count as the bulls fail to create enough bullish organic energy to develop a five wave structure. We will shift our focus again to a bearish view as price would favor a ABC zig-zag for the final leg down in completing intermediate wave (4) targeting 5250.

4Hr Chart bullish count:

Chart bearish count should 6820 give way:

Note

sorry the 4Hr bullish count did not copy

4 Hr bullish and operative count while we trade above 6820:

Note

The bullish count we were tracking on the 4HR chart invalidated as the bullish energy was just insufficient to develop a five wave structure. This suggests we may have additional corrective price action in store before our next bullish impulse gets underway. I am as anxious as you to see a bull run to test ATH however we may need to be a bit more patient. We may have a triple zig-zag structure forming on the daily chart that targets the area of wave 4 of one lesser degree. I would prefer to see us tag this area before the next bull run so we are not left with unfinished business. It would add confidence that the intermediate wave (4) correction is complete.
If we drop down to the 4HR chart we can see with more granularity how price may unfold in the first leg of our last ABC of the triple zig-zag.

Daily Chart :

4 Hr Chart:

Note

BTCUSD continues to remain under pressure and the triple zig-zag (WXYZ) remains intact and is my preferred count. However, there is an alternate count that is a bit less bearish, namely an Ending Diagonal that has a terminal target near the 5000 level.

On the 4 HR chart it appears we have completed a five wave minuette sequence and in kind minute wave 1 or wave A of the alternate count. Under either count we are looking for a pullback to the 7000ish area before further decline.

Weekly Chart Alternate Count:

Daily Chart :

4Hr Chart:

Note

Price remains in a corrective channel on the 4 HR chart and it appears we have one more push to the upside between 7000 and 7200 to complete wave b before further declines.

4HR Chart:

Daily Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our previous post and we appear to be in the fifth and final wave of the impulse of (c) of ((b)) with a terminal target near 7200.

4 HR Chart:

Note

To reflect recent price action I have adjusted the terminal target for wave ((5)) of V of (c) of ((b)) to between 7338 and 7500 before wave ((c) gets underway and further declines.

1 HR chart:

Note

Price is unfolding in line with our impulsive count to complete wave ((5)) of V of (c) of ((b)). Recent price development points to a terminal target near 7400ish. The .618 fib expansion of wave ((3))/((4)) lies at 7390 and the 1.618 fib extension of wave ((4)) lies at 7405. The .618 of wave ((a)) lies at 7495 and coincides with the top of the corrective channel and the area the bears need to defend to support the daily bearish view.

1 HR Chart:

Note

Price continues to unfold in line with our impulsive count, however, I have made some adjustments to the internals of wave ((5)) of V to reflect recent price action and provide us with a better fit and allows for a terminal target near 7500 before wave © gets underway to test the yearly low.

1 HR Chart:

Note

Price fell just short of our projected target at 7465 and found resistance at 7411 followed by a strong and impulsive decline breaking the corrective channel to the downside. While we have not yet completed a five wave structure on the subminuette degree however it appears imminent as we start in on the early stages of development of a larger bearish impulse of wave c in the final zig-zag of the daily ending diagonal.

Wave iv of the subminuette degree is still unfolding with a projected target at 6576 before wave v gets underway with a projected target near 6050ish to complete Minuette (i), one larger degree.

1 HR Chart:

Note

4 Hr Chart:

Daily Chart:

Note

Daily Chart:

Note

It appears we may have completed minute wave (i) at 6094 and are now correcting in minute wave (ii) with a projected target near 6600 before minute wave (iii) gets underway to the downside.

1 HR Chart:

Note

Price continues to unfold in a corrective manner and we appear to be in the last leg of a three wave abc structure. Wave ((c)) of (ii) appears to be unfolding in a five wave structure and based on recent price action has a terminal target projected between 6550 and 6600. This is a relatively shallow pullback for a wave (ii) correction as the most common fib level for corrective wave 2’s is the .618 level. So this could morph into a more complex correction. However given the fundamentals and the generally bearish sentiment I would expect a more shallow correction as we look for wave (iii) of the larger bearish impulse to get underway.

1 Hr Chart:

Note

Price continues to unfold in a corrective manner as we try to home in on the terminal target for minuette wave (ii)) correction. I have adjusted the count slightly to allow for what appears to be a better fit for the sub-divisions of micro wave 3, lavender circles and allows for a slightly deeper correction. Micro wave 5 should unfold in a five wave sub micro degree structure also and points to a terminal target near the 6750ish area where we also have a cluster of fib levels and more in line with the character of wave 2’s typical development as we look for wave (iii) of the bearish impulse to get underway. This count will be invalidated if price breaks below 6316.

1 HR Chart:

Note

Sorry, I forgot to delete yesterdays commentary from the chart. New comments for today's chart and price development is written above.

Note

Just to be clear here is the same chart with today's comments:

Note

Price has failed to create an impulsive five wave bearish structure on the 4HR Chart and instead unfolded in a three wave structure with overlapping price action leaving it in a corrective nature. It has been strongly rejected just prior to what would have been a wave (iii) confirmation at 6094. It would appear that corrective wave (ii) has some unfinished business above price and its structure has morphed and is most likely unfolding as a flat. Typical fib expansions for flats are the 1.272 and the 1.382 levels which lie at 6732 and 6786 respectfully. The .50 fib retracement of wave (i) lies at 6753. Price remains likely to travel to this area before wave (iii) of the bearish impulse gets underway.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our previous post and has reached our target zone and beyond before stalling. However, it appears we have some more upside price action in store before finding our terminal target for wave (ii) as the sub divisions of a “C” wave of a flat should unfold in a five wave sub structure; in this case the micro degree, lavender circles, and while still too early to call currently point to a target area between 6900 and 7000.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price was contained at 6826 just shy of the .618 retracement level of wave (i) and has been followed by a completed five wave bearish impulse at the micro degree, lavender circles, and appears to have resumed the larger bearish trend. Price is expected to correct to near 6600 in an abc zig-zag pattern where we expect wave iii of (iii) to get underway with a preliminary target near 5500.

4 HR Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our previous post and reached and exceeded our target area. And although it unfolded in a three wave sequence the 4HR chart remains a bit unclear and giving us mixed signals. We were expecting a sharp and impulsive type movement upon the completion of the corrective sequence at the lower degrees. Price has been clearly rejected at 6792 however has since stalled and thus far failed to followed through.

When a chart is unclear it is best to go up in the time frames until it becomes clear. So until we get more clarity we will focus on the daily chart and re-visit the bigger picture.

We had initially started this thread back in April 2018 on a weekly time frame looking to identify a level where Intermediate Wave (4) may find its terminal target in an effort to position ourselves to participate in the next bullish impulsive movement at the larger degree. In April 2018 we had pointed to several reasons why to expect further correction at the Intermediate Wave Degree and we had specifically homed in on the area between 3000 and 5000 as target area for Intermediate Wave (4). We use the smaller time frames for more granularity and to either confirm or invalidate our counts and attempt to trace out the footsteps of the larger correction as we look for the next bullish impulse at the larger degree to get underway.

This is my updated daily working chart where our longer term bearish and operative count remains intact for now as we approach our target range (between 3000 and 5000) for Intermediate Wave (4). We need to hold 7400ish and the upper trend line of the Ending Diagonal to keep this count valid. A break above 7400ish and we will have to start to look at the possibility of the bottom in place and consider alternate bullish counts.

Daily Chart:

Note

This follows my post yesterday where we review the daily chart and all of the comments made yesterday remain applicable today. Before we start in on the analysis, there is a housekeeping matter to address. In reviewing my daily charts I had noticed I had skipped a degree as I dropped down to the smaller charts. So I have adjusted the degree labeling however all the levels remain the same and the respective relationship within the waves.

The market is at a major fulcrum and starting to shows signs of a bottoming process. It is possible that we have put a bottom in already and have started in on the early stages of development of the fifth and final wave of the intermediate wave sequence with targets near 50,000 (guesstimate). If we are not at the bottom then the bottom is near. I personally am of the opinion that we have a push lower near 5000 before we make the turn. I took a little time off yesterday to relax and allow the market to unfold. It has not moved much from yesterday but having focused on the daily chart there is no confirming evidence that we have made the turn.

To be honest it really does not matter. It is not our chart analysis that makes us money; it is our trade plan, execution and trade and risk management that makes the cash register ring. Most young or novice traders spend 90% of their time studying and analyzing charts and have an overwhelming desire to be right rather than make money. It should be reversed; we should spend 90% of our time on our trade plan and only 10% of our time analyzing charts. We don’t need to know what the market is going to do next to make money; we just need to know what we are going to do once the market moves.

In our current environment the levels we need to watch for to confirm the bearish view are 6100, 5900 and 5800. The levels to confirm the bullish view are 7400 and 8500. These levels are rounded off as they are a bit different with different data feeds. I am comfortable with either scenario playing out and have a trade plan for both scenarios.

It is my opinion that the probability is in favor of a push lower near 5000. That represents a 30% discount from current trading levels. So to the extent the probability is slightly in favor a new low I am willing to wait to get that discount and moreover be in a better position to manage risk. However, if the bullish scenario unfolds then I will put trade plan “B” in to effect. I more than likely will have to pay a mark up from current levels and take on slightly more risk but I will at least have some confirmation as the market shows us her hand rather than trying to pick a bottom.

So I have put together a bullish count should the market break 7400 and 8500. It is the same daily chart as yesterday with a bullish count overlay highlighted in the green, aqua and blue colors.

If we drop down to the 4HR Chart we can take a look at how the preferred bearish count may unfold should we get final confirmation at 6100ish (depending on your data feed). We need to see a sharp and impulsive drop from current levels if wave 3 of iii is to unfold to the downside and should also unfold as a five wave structure.

Daily Chart with alternate bullish overlay:

4HR chart bearish view:

Note

Price action is not supporting my current view of the market on the lower time frames and is changeling the current count. We currently have the position labeled as 3 of iii of v of (c) of V of Y of (4). A 3 of a 3 wave normally is where we expect to see the meat of the move with the sharpest and most impulsive type movement. Price is not reacting that way. Although it has broken out of the corrective channel it has since hesitated and has failed to follow through the way we would expect a 3 of a 3 unfold. While it is still possible to break down from current levels it needs to do so soon. Price is starting to look more corrective with overlapping price action than impulsive.

The Ending Diagonal on the daily chart remains intact for now while we trade below the7400 area. Yesterday we presented a daily chart with an alternate bullish count that would need to break 8500 to confirm itself and likewise would be invalidated on a break below 5780. So for now the Ending Diagonal is our operative count. If the final abc structure of the Ending Diagonal is still in play and to the extent price fails to break down and continues to show overlapping price action we need to consider additional corrective price structure development before we break down. There are only three basic corrective structures, zig-zags, flats and triangles. A triangle is the most likely candidate and is typically found at the end of a structure of one larger degree and would require that we adjust the completion of wave (b) of one larger degree to coincide with the completion of the triangle.

The key levels remain the same at 7400 and 8500 to the upside and 6100 and 5780 to the downside.

Daily Chart:

Note

There is not much to update as price continues to move inside the triangle at the subminuette degree (orange) leaving it intact and the operative count in search of the completion of wave (b) of the final bearish zig-zag of the larger Ending Diagonal (see daily chart).

Triangles reflect indecision as price contracts failing to make higher highs and failing to make lower lows. Triangles waves generally travel to the .618 fib levels of alternating waves within the triangle. So the technical target for subminuette wave c (orange) is projected at 7040. I have added the micro and submicro count to take a look at the internals of subminuette wave c. We may have found interim support between 6460 and 6500 as we advance in subminuette wave c (orange) in further development of the subminuette triangle.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price has move sharply and impulsively to the downside and invalidated our triangle. Moreover price has confirmed wave iii of the alternate bearish impulse is underway with a break below 6094. We should shift our focus to the bearish impulse and look for lower lows.

4HR Chart:

Note

I remain bearish short term and we appear to be in the (c) wave unfolding as a bearish impulse of the final zig-zag of our daily Ending Diagonal. I have adjusted the count however adjusting the completion of wave ii to reflect the corrective nature of price action and what appears to be a better fit. This count has the same implications as our previous count and only slightly adjusts our projected targets. The alternate count allows for further corrective price action under a expanded flat scenario and is overlaid in the second chart in bright aqua. A break below 6055 will support and favor our bearish impulse while a break above 6660 would support additional corrective price action before we break down . Let’s see how she unfolds.

4HR Chart preferred count:

4Hr Chart alternate count highlighted in aqua:

Note

It has been difficult to make sense out of the market especially when we get as much as a $1200 difference in price from one exchange to another as we recently just had with the USD Tether panic sell off. Having said that, we have been using Bitstamp data feed that peaked at 6756 during that sell off so we will continue our charting with the Bitstamp data feed.

We have been trying to map out the fifth and final abc zigzag of the daily Ending Diagonal which remains intact and we have wrestled with whether or not wave (b) has completed. In our last post we labeled it as complete with the early stages of development of the final bearish impulse underway to complete the sequence. We had allowed for the possibility of additional correction before further declines in an abc flat scenario. While price unfolded more in line with this alternate count it did so in three waves and failed to extend beyond wave A. Wave C of a flat should unfold in a five wave structure and generally extend beyond wave A. And while that count is still technically valid it is looking less likely. That leaves me to consider that the extended and continued overlapping price action in a corrective nature with lower highs may be forming a larger barrier triangle to complete wave (b) of the daily zig-zag. The implications are the same, it all points to the downside. It may slightly alter our projected targets that we can home in on once and if the bearish impulse gets underway. But I am still targeting 5000 or lower.

4HR Chart:

Daily Chart:

Note

The market has struggled to make any headway one way or the other. Our daily Ending Diagonal remains intact and continues to be our preferred and operative count as we look to complete the daily wave sequence in its final stages of development.

On the 4HR chart the triangle remains our preferred count and while too early to call may have completed triangle wave e of (b) at 6475. If so, then we should be looking for a thrust type movement to the downside in an impulsive manner in a five wave structure with a terminal target near 5000.

And likewise complete intermediate wave (4) and start the early stages of development of the next intermediate bullish impulse with targets between 36,000 and 48,000.

Daily Chart:

4HR Chart:

Note

The triangle we were tracking to locate minuette wave (b), red, seems to have invalidated. However we continue to move sideways with overlapping price action in a corrective manner as the daily Ending Diagonal remains intact with terminal targets near or sub 5000ish. So I am revisiting my original count (see post 15 Oct 2018) where wave (b) completes at 7412 followed by the early stages of the final 5 wave impulse to complete the daily Ending Diagonal. We appear to be completing wave ii of that count and have a strong confluence of resistance at 6660 and anticipate wave iii of that final impulse to get under way to the downside.. The only thing I don't like about this count is that it appears to be a triangle inside a wave two (almost never happens) and the move seems to be a bit long in the tooth however we have been contained by the .618 fib level at 6908 typical of wave 2's. It is also possible that it is not a triangle but rather a expanded flat with wave c of the flat unfolding now. If so then we may travel to 7000ish area before breaking down. Anyway, let’s see how she unfolds.

The key levels to watch for are:

7412 on the upside, invalidation point
6055 on the downside, confirmation point.

4HR Chart, triangle:

4HR Chart, expanded flat:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our previous post and the bearish impulse confirmed breaking 6055 and 5780 in an impulsive manner. Wave 3 at the subminuette and micro degree of our final zig-zag of the daily Ending Diagonal are still in progress and no sign they are complete yet. Our terminal target for the completed sequence remains near or sub 5000.

4Hr Chart:

Daily Chart:

Note

As expected, price unfolded in line with our preferred count and has made a push to new lows at 4046. I have adjusted the count at the micro degree to reflect recent price action. While it is still too early to call I am expecting one more push lower to 3500/3600 level after some consolidation in a wave iv subminuette degree. It is possible that that the pattern is complete so I would keep a close eye on it to see if we are able to advance in a five wave impulsive structure or if we consolidate with overlapping corrective price action.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our short term preferred count and slightly exceeded our target area registering new lows at 3475. The nature of the steep and rapid drop however has put into question the structural integrity of our daily Ending Diagonal as the operative count. Price has clearly broken the lower boundary of the diagonal and while it is not uncommon for an ending diagonal to initially spike and overshoot its terminal target, similar to triangles, we should nonetheless consider our alternate count and see if we can get a clearer picture and proper context of our current environment.

In early August we posted a daily chart that outlined a potential triple zig-zag (see 09 Aug 2018 post) and it appears that may be the more appropriate operative count as supported by recent price action. While the Ending Diagonal targeted the upper boundary of our target range (btwn 3000 and 5000) the triple zig-zag targets the lower boundary of our targeted range. It would appear that we have one more push lower near 3000 to complete the sequence. It is possible that the pattern is complete so again I would look for a five wave structural advance for signs that a bottom may be in place. Overlapping corrective price action however will support further declines. A break below 3475 is needed to confirm the bearish continuation.

Daily Chart Triple Zig-Zag :

4HR Chart:

Note

Looks like the daily chart did not copy, lets try again.

Daily Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our preferred count and reached our targeted area in an abc corrective sequence before stalling in the area of wave 4 of one lesser degree at 4410. However, price has not followed through with a bearish impulse as we were expecting. Price may be morphing into a double three wxy combination correction with a terminal target near 4800/4900ish area before we break down.

As long as price continues to unfold in an overlapping corrective manner we will continue to look for one more push lower to complete the larger intermediate wave sequence with a terminal target near 3000/3100ish.

4HR Chart:

Note

Alternate bearish count: BTC seems to lack enough bullish energy to push above our recent high at 4410. Price is contracting and appears to be forming a triangle that points to the downside with a terminal target between 2600 and 3100. We can home in on the final target once the bearish impulse gets underway.

4HR Chart:

Note

Yesterday we posted a potential triangle that appeared was in its latter stages of development. Should price continue to overlap we may have an extended triangle in development that will take longer to fully mature with internal compound triples and wave B of the triangle is just completing now. The implications are the same and we would expect the triangle to break to the downside. It is difficult to measure the depth of the subsequent bearish impulse until the triangle completes, however I would guesstimate it between 2800 and 3100.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price has broken down below3475 and has confirmed its bearish continuation as the fifth and final wave of the subminuette degree is underway with a terminal target near 3000.

4HR Chart:

Note

I dropped down to a 30 minute chart to get a more granular view of our current bearish impulse. It looks like sub-micro wave 4 is unfolding as a flat so I would look for it to move a bit higher before breaking down. I have labeled the terminal target at 2900 for now as it is equality with wave 1 at the micro degree. However the .618 fib expansion measures all the way down to 2750. Not sure we will get that low as wave 3 micro is very extended which often times will translate to a shortened and even a truncated wave 5. Also note the descending channel is just a rough visual guide for now and we will adjust it in accordance with Elliott Wave guidelines after micro wave 3 completes.

30 minute chart:

Note

Price has unfolded in line with our preferred count and reached our target area before stalling and reversing at 3633 and continues to support our short tern bearish view with a terminal target sub 3000. It is not possible to apply fib ratios at the micro degree until wave 3 micro completes. I have adjusted the descending channel to better estimate the more likely micro degree channel. We need to break below 3210 to confirm the bearish continuation and confirm sub-micro wave 4 is in in place.

The invalidation point for the Intermediate Wave sequence is at 1163. While I would prefer to see price stay above 3000 and within the limits of wave 4 of one lesser degree it appears we will drop below 3000 however we would still be well within our limits of a continued valid Intermediate wave sequence and support of our overall larger term bullish view.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price has unfolded in line with our preferred count and 3210 has given way and has confirmed the bearish continuation with further anticipated declines to 2950ish to complete sub-micro wave (5) and micro wave ((3)) . I have adjusted the micro wave channel slightly to coincide with a .382 fib level corrective pullback at the micro degree to 3450ish before making its final run down in micro wave 5 and subminuette wave V near 2800ish.

4Hr Chart:

Note

Price continues to unfold in line with our preferred count and has maintained structure as we look for price to break below 3122 and stall near 2950ish before making the next correction at the micro degree followed by a 5 wave bearish impulse to complete the sequence. We can home in a bit more on the terminal target for the completed sequence as price unfolds a bit more. For now we need to see 3293 hold as near term resistance.

4Hr Chart:

Note

Our most recent count at the minuscule and sub-micro degree has invalidated, however, the micro degree count remains valid (for now) and has an invalidation level at 3861 and a confirmation level at 3122. So far the recent move upward has unfolded in 3 waves and still within the area of wave 4 of one lower degree (sub-micro) and we appear to be in a consolidation. I have adjusted the micro degree channel using wave 2-4 trend line and used a parallel anchored to wave 3 at the micro degree. Should 3590 hold as resistance we should expect one more push lower near 2880 to complete the micro wave sequence (preferred count). However should 3590 give way and form a 5 wave structure we may have found a bottom and our long awaited trend reversal in the early stages of development. Let’s see how she unfolds.

4HR Chart:

Note

The bearish count has invalidated and it appears we have completed a 5 wave structural advance. This supports that we may have put in a bottom and possibly completed Intermediate wave (4) and have started in on the early stages of development of Intermediate Wave (5) with a terminal target above ATH and technical level near 50,000. We should expect an ABC correction for wave ((2)) at the micro degree near 3428 before further advances. We would like to see price move in a clear impulsive manner through the 4410 level in wave ((3)) at the micro degree to add confidence to a trend reversal and bullish continuation.

4HR Chart:

Note

I have dropped down to the 1HR chart to take a more granular view of our current bullish impulse at the micro degree and accordingly have adjusted the count to reflect recent price action and my premature call for the completion of the impulse at the micro degree. I have also decomposed each of the advancing impulsive waves and it seems to fit better, especially given recent price action. Our overall theory remains the same with the levels adjusted a bit to reflect price action. I would expect wave ((1)) micro to complete in the area of 4200ish. I have not yet adjusted the fib ratios for the balance of the waves at the micro degree. Let’s confirm the completion of wave ((1)) micro and then we can make our adjustments in accordance with Elliott Wave guidelines.

1HR Chart:

Note

Looks like the chart did not copy, let's try again.

Note

Price continues to advance in an impulsive manner. I have adjusted the count for what seems to be a better structural fit given recent price action. It appears that we may have just completed an expanded flat and in the final and fifth wave to complete micro wave ((1)). It should unfold in a five wave structure at one lower degree with a terminal target near 4500/4600ish before our next larger correction. Let’s see how she unfolds.

4HR Chart:

Note

A break below 3675 rendered our count invalid so I have adjusted the count to reflect recent price action. Micro wave ((1)) appears to have completed at 4235 and we are still in an ABC correction for micro wave ((2)) with a terminal target near 3500ish before resuming the upward movement. The .618 fib expansion of A/B lies at 3516 and the .618 fib retracement of micro wave ((1)) lies at 3551.

4HR Chart:

Note

I have made a few slight adjustments to the count with the thesis remaining the same. The terminal target for micro wave ((2)) remains at 3500ish with the internal structure slightly changed as a result of shifting the completion of sub-micro wave (B) to 3841. I have made this change to allow for a better structural fit of the internals of sub-micro wave (B). While it is a minor change and does not materially change our terminal target for micro wave ((2)) it nonetheless changes the structure slightly and I thought it was worth noting. If we are correct and 3500ish holds as support micro wave ((3)) target is in the area of 5800ish. Key levels for the micro count are confirmation at 4235 and invalidation at 3122. Key levels for the miniscule count are confirmation at 3566 and invalidation at 3693.

All the best to everyone for a Profitable and Happy New Year!

4HR Chart:

Note

Price has turned sharply to the upside within the last hour since my last post and has invalidated our minuscule count. So I have adjusted the count again to reflect this price action and have again shifted Sub-micro wave (B) unfolding as a triangle with a thrust to the downside finding support at 3566 and followed by a sharp reversal to the upside and what appears to be the early stages of development of micro wave ((3)) underway. We could still be in a larger ABC correction. Our key levels however for the micro wave count remain the same; confirmation at 4235 and invalidation at 3122.

4HR Chart:

Note

As I had mentioned in my previous post we may be in a larger ABC correction with a deeper micro wave ((2)) still to unfold with a terminal target near 3400ish before we resume the bullish trend at the micro degree. The key levels remain the same ; confirmation at 4235 and invalidation at 3122. Alternate count should 3566 give way. Thanks to our friend insate4838 for his observations and contributions to this count.

4HR Chart; alternate count:

Note

Our preferred count at the micro degree remains intact for now as 3566 holds as support. The confirmation level at the micro degree remains at 4235, however we really need to see 4410 (completion of wave iv of our previous bearish impulse at the subminuette degree) give way to add credence to our thesis with near term target at 5300 and a terminal target at the micro degree near 6000. A break above 3970 in a vertical fashion is how we would expect this part of the count to unfold as we may be printing a series of 1, 2’s. While a break below 3566 will not invalidate the count at the micro level but rather may suggest that we have a more complex and deeper micro wave ((2)) correction near 3400ish; a break below 3122 will invalidate this count as wave 2 may not extend beyond the origins of wave 1.

A break below 3122 will also invalidate the Intermediate Wave (4) correction as complete and suggest further bearish declines with support near 2750ish.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our alternate count and it appears we have one more push lower near 3425ish to complete a five wave structure for wave c of corrective wave 2. The key levels remain the same at 4235/4410 to confirm a bullish continuation and 3122 to invalidate the bullish count.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our previous post and has reached and exceeded our target before stalling at 3402. The key levels remain the same at 4235/4410 to confirm a bullish continuation and 3122 to invalidate the bullish count. We are now looking for price to break the corrective channel to the upside in an impulsive manner to add a level of comfort that the correction is complete and in the early stages of development of our next impulsive move to the upside.

4HR Chart:

Note

Not much has changed in the past week as price continues to hover around the 3400 area. Our count remains technically intact. I have adjusted the internals of wave c of ii to reflect recent price action and provide a better fit. Likewise I have adjusted wave iii terminal target to 5115 to account for the recent new low in wave ii. The key levels remain the same at 4235/4410 to confirm a bullish continuation and 3122 to invalidate the bullish count at the subminuette degree. Wave ii is starting to look a bit long in the tooth and if our bullish count is correct then we need to see price start moving impulsively to the upside soon. Let’s be a bit more patient and see if 3322 can hold as support as we look for wave iii to get underway.

4HR Chart:

Note

Still not much change in either price or structure however our interim support at 3322 has held as support as the market has made a modest advance at the submicro degree. While this price move is consistent with our overall preferred count it is not very convincing as we look for a 5 wave structure to develop at the submicro, micro and subminuette degrees. The count remains intact and the key levels remain the same at 4235/4410 to confirm a bullish continuation and 3122 to invalidate the bullish count.

4Hr Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our previous post and preferred count which remains intact and our operative structure. We reached and exceeded our target area at the micro degree before stalling at 3955. While it is a bit early to call we are labeling our working chart as a completed 5 wave structural advance at 3955 at the micro degree; if it is not yet complete it completion is near and we can adjust our count later to reflect changing price action. Wherever it completes, from our recent high at 3955 or slightly above, we will expect it to correct in an ABC zig-zag (5-3-5) pattern and in the neighbor of the .618 fib level of wave 1 micro degree, currently falling at 3563.

However, it is not uncommon for price to re-test the center line of our recently broken corrective channel which lies below our technical target for the correction at the micro degree. And it is not uncommon for price to make deeper than normal corrections at major swing turns in the market reflective of the strong emotional swings of traders and investors from optimism to pessimism and back again as we try to confirm a bottom and the completion of the larger structure at the Intermediate Degree Wave (4) at 3122 and the early stages of development of Intermediate Wave (5).

The key technical levels at the subminuette degree remain the same at 4235/4410 to confirm a bullish continuation and 3122 to invalid the bullish count.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price made a slightly higher high at 4000 (as we suspected it may) and is now printing a corrective wave structure and in line with our bullish view however I am presenting the possibility of an alternate count that points in the same direction however slightly more bullish. Our recent move up substantially exceeded our target and it seems to have created a disproportionate relationship within the wave and more recent price action suggest that the current correction is more supportive of a flat (more common in 4th wave positions) and so it may be possible that we are printing a series of 1, 2’s of a stronger advance. This count is more bullish and provides a better fit for the internal subdivisions. The main difference technically is that places us in a wave 4 position at the smaller degree with the expectation of a more shallow correction and the expectation of higher advances. We will home in on the projected targets of this count in line with EW guidelines after further price development; for now we can use our upwards sloping bullish channel on the 4HR Chart as a rough visual guide.

The key levels remain the same at 4235/4410 to confirm a bullish continuation at one larger degree and 3122 to invalidate the bullish count.

4HR Chart:

Note

Our recent alternate and more bullish count invalidated with a hard rejection at 4190. I have adjusted the count to reflect price action. I had to slightly change the preceding bearish impulse and the location of corrective wave ii to stay within the EW rules and guidelines. It appears that we have completed micro wave 1 in a clear 5 wave structure at 4190 and are now correcting in micro wave 2. We are testing the upper limits of the corrective channel as we look for price to print a 3 wave corrective structure with a terminal target near 3650 before resuming the bullish movement.

The key levels remain the same at 4235/4410 to confirm a bullish continuation and 3122 to invalidate the bullish count.

4HR Chart:

Note

I have made a slight adjustment to our terminal target of corrective minor wave 2 to near 3500ish. We can adjust this level again after submicro wave (B) completes (estimated at 3900/4000ish). We will be looking for equality with submicro wave (A). For now we will use the .786 fib level of micro wave 1 where there is a confluence of support at the upper limit of the corrective channel and the lower limit of the new projected bullish channel in blue.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our previous post and preferred count and it appears wave (B) of our correction completed at 3950 and we are in the final leg of the correction in wave (C) which should unfold in a five wave structure. I am keeping 3500ish as our terminal target of the correction for now until we see further price development.

The major key levels remain the same at 4190/4410 to confirm a bullish continuation and 3122 to invalidate the bullish count.

4HR Chart:

Note

Correction: the major key levels for the bullish continuation lie at 4235/4410

Note

We may have prematurely called the completion of submicro wave (B) as price has pushed to a new high in submicro wave (B) before stalling at 4040. So we are still looking for one more push lower in submicro wave (C) to near 3500ish, [the upper limit of the corrective channel (red) and the lower limit of the projected bullish channel (blue) and equality with submicro wave (A) and the .786 fib level of subminuette wave i] to complete the corrective pattern before we resume the bullish movement at the micro degree.

It is possible the correction is complete and if so we would want to see a vertical type movement as this would be a 3 of a 3 where we would expect the most impulsive type movement. But for now price is still looking corrective with overlapping type price action suggesting one more push lower before ((3)) of iii gets underway.

The major key levels remain the same at 4235/4410 to confirm a bullish continuation and 3122 to invalidate the bullish count.

4HR Chart:

Note

Additional Note:
There is a confluence of support at the 3500ish area:
1. It is near the upper limit of the corrective channel (red) at the subminuette degree.
2. It is near the lower limit of the new projected bullish channel (blue).
3. It is near equal to wave (A) at the submicro degree located at 3515.
4. It is near the .786 fib level of subminuette wave i located at 3507.

Note

Not much has changed since our last post. Price inched slightly higher in submicro wave (B) to 4055 and has since started its decline in submicro wave (C). I have added a new corrective channel (dashed maroon) and this lines up with our expected target and support level near 3500ish. As I mentioned in my last post it is possible that the correction has completed at 3658, near the .618 fib level of micro wave ((1)) but that is looking less likely at this stage. Let’s keep a close eye on it and see how price unfolds.

Key levels to watch for a bullish continuation are 4190, 4235 and 4410. And 3322 on the downside with 3122 to invalidate the bullish count.

4HR Chart:

Note

Recent price appears to be advancing in an impulsive manner so I am presenting an alternate count that completes the correction at 3850.45 at the submicro degree. This count labels the advances against 3658 as a leading diagonal that completes at 4055 followed by a three wave ABC correction. We would still need to break above 4055 for confirmation and to add credence to this count as we could still be developing a more complex WXY correction at the Micro Degree. However given the impulsive nature of recent price action against 3850 the leading diagonal is the more likely count. If this is the case then wave ((3)) target at the Micro Degree is near 4500ish. We still have a few hurdles to overcome in route, namely, 4190, 4235 and 4410. Let’s see how she unfolds.

4HR Chart:

Note

I just notice that in my last post I did not label my chart for the most recent price action. So here is basically the same chart with the EW labels to reflect recent price action. All other comments in my last post remain applicable.

4HR Chart:

Note

While price has broken above 4055 in a five wave impulse and technically is a confirmation of a bullish continuation if our leading diagonal is the operative count as I laid out in my recent post it should be noted that price stalled at 4130 which happens to be 0.90 fib retrace level almost to the pip of wave (A) of the correction and therefore qualifies for a possible flat and we could still move lower to 3658 to 3600ish in a flat formation before resuming the bullish movement. So I am presenting this as another alternate count. While flats are not typical for wave 2 corrections it is interesting to note that price is currently divergent with RSI at the default settings and has encouraged to post this as an alternate.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our most recent bullish count and has impulsively broken through all of our key levels before temporarily stalling just shy of 5100. This is the type of vertical and impulsive movement that we would expect to see in a third of a third of a third. We should continue to advance to complete wave sequence at the submicro degree with a terminal target near 6500ish. This supports our bullish view however there is still reason to be cautious. While it may appear that a bullish continuation is etched in stone given recent price action the daily picture tells a little different story as we have still only advanced in three waves so if we fail at the top we could fall hard and fast and test our yearly low. While I am maintaining a bullish preferred count with a terminal target near 7500 at the larger subminuette degree. It is not a time to throw caution to the wind. We need to keep an eye on our risk and not relax our trade management and risk exposure.

4Hr Chart:

Daily Chart:

Note

Price continues to unfold in line with our bullish impulsive count and submicro wave (3) looks complete at 5337 with a clear five wave internal subdivision. We are still consolidating within corrective submicro wave (4) which appears to be unfolding as a flat with a corrective target near 4700 to be followed by a five wave advance in submicro wave 5 and likewise the completion of micro wave ((3)). We have adjusted the approximate target for micro wave ((3)) to 5600/5700ish for now until submicro wave (4) completes.

Our current correction at submicro degree could also be unfolding as a wave 4 triangle in which case the corrective target would not be as deep and likewise we would adjust our wave 5 target at the submicro degree.

We have advance beyond the 1.1618 levels of both the mciro and the larger subminuette degree, which are very close to each other, and this strongly supports the bullish continuation however it remains important to note we are still vulnerable to downside risk until we complete a five wave structural advance at the larger degree on the daily chart.

4Hr Chart:

Daily Chart:

Note

We were expecting a bit more corrective price action in the form of a larger abc flat in Submicro Wave (4) before advancing in the fifth and final wave at the Submicro Degree. The correction however was much quicker and unfolded as an abc zig-zag followed by an ending diagonal to complete the wave sequence at the Submicro Degree. We are now consolidating within Micro wave ((4)) and while still too early to call is most likely to unfold as a flat with a terminal target near 4800ish before resuming the bullish advances at the Micro and Subminuette Degrees.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price unfolded in line with our preferred count and we appear to be consolidating in corrective wave ((4)) at the micro degree with a terminal target near 4800ish before resuming the bullish advances. The .382 fib level at the micro degree falls at 4849 and equality with wave (A) of the correction falls at 4776 assuming wave (B) of the correction is complete at 5325.

4HR Chart:

Note

Price has move a bit higher in our (B) wave of the correction as we wait for price to unfold. The correction to 4800ish remains in play from current levels or from not much higher. We have for now anchored the (B) wave of the correction at 5365. The 0.90 fib level of wave (A) falls at 5413 (a common level for regular flats). Let’s see how she unfolds.

4HR Chart:

Note

I went to Hong Kong for a mates wedding and afterwards to mainland China. Between travel and connection issues in China I simply wasn’t able to post updates. Anyway, I am back at home base and anxious to get back on schedule.

I would like to take a look at the daily chart and focus our attention on the bigger picture to see if we can get a better feel for the overall structure of the market. Price has unfolded in line with our larger bullish count at the subminuette and minuette degrees as we try to map out the lower wave excursions on the smaller time frames.

In our last post (about 2 weeks ago) we were following the development of corrective wave ((4)) at the micro degree and had a preferred count as a regular flat that invalidated on a break above 5466 [completion of micro wave ((3))]. The next most likely count would have been a expanded flat and correctly called so by SentiSurf, one of our contributors, on 27 April. However that also invalidated on a break above 5627, the completion of the B wave of the correction, and morphed into a running flat. Running flats are impossible to call in real time and are bullish by nature as they lack sufficient bearish energy to extend beyond the completion of wave A of the correction. Based on recent price action our terminal target for wave iii at the subminuette degree is projected near 6100ish before correcting again at the subminuette degree.

Daily Chart:

Note

It has been a few weeks since our last update and price has blown through our upside targets in a parabolic and impulsive manner and has taken out some major key levels at 6500, 7400 and 8500. So I have adjusted the count to reflect this recent price action. However, before we get started I’d like to note a few housekeeping matters. Mostly, I have changed the degree labeling and color scheme to make it easier to see the relationship between the waves and respective degree. So more specifically, I am labeling our current bullish count that is still unfolding at the Minor degree and have colored it in green and all the internals or subdivisions are also adjusted accordingly relative to the Minor degree development.

I would like to stay on the daily chart to get a clear orientation where we are in the wave sequence. I have anchored wave ((3)) at the Minute Degree (blue circles) completion at 8390. Price momentum finally appears to be slowing down as we start to consolidate in wave ((4)) at the Minute degree (blue circles). Price has pushed above 8390 it what may be a triangle or an expanded flat. The projected guesstimate for the terminal target of Wave 1 at the Minor degree (green) near 10,000 is based on the correction unfolding as a triangle with a completion near 7400. However, if price unfolds as an expanded flat the correction will be much deeper and more in the area of wave 4 of one lower degree at the Minuette wave sequence (red parenthesis) with a span between 5000 and 5500 and is highlighted in yellow with an invalidation level at 4236. Let’s see how she unfolds.

Daily Chart:

Note

Our alternate correction as an expanded abc flat would unfold more like this before resuming the bullish advances to complete the sequence at the Minor Degree (green).

Daily Chart Alternate Count:

Note

Price appears to have completed a tighter triangle than we were expecting and may be completing the final leg up in wave v of ((V)) of 1. We have two possible counts unfolding in the completion of the wave sequence and likewise the completion of the larger wave structure at Wave 1 (Green) of the Minor degree.

First lets look at the Daily chart for continuity and orientation. Wave ((III)), blue circles/Minute Degree was an extremely strong and impulsive move and has over extended itself as compared to blue wave ((i)). So we should we should be on guard for a shorten or even a possible truncated wave (v) of ((V)).

The preferred count shows us that the triangle completed at 7511 and that we are in the latter and final stages of development of a strong trend. On the four hour chart we can see the details of that move so we have adjusted the count to reflect recent price action. The 10,000 level certainly has a strong gravitational pull. If this count holds and price follows through our technical terminal target for the larger sequence (Green) at the Minor degree lies near 10,500 to 11,000.

However if we fail at the top we may still have a larger triangle in development (Alternate Count). The price level that invalidates the bullish continuation lies at 8090 and I would switch our focus to the alternate. The alternate larger triangle also has a terminal corrective target near 7500 and likewise a bullish wave sequence terminal target at the Minor Degree (Green) near 10,500 to 11,000.

Either way, it is clear we are getting over crowded in this trade and near its completion with the anticipation of a larger correction at the Minor Degree (Green) with an initial target near 6000 before resuming the larger bullish advances at the Minor degree in Wave 3.

Traders that accumulated a position in the 3000 to 5000 area are looking to cover and reposition themselves following the correction. Traders that did not participate in this recent impulse should not get FOMO at the top and have patience to allow the market to reset and can initiate a position near 6000 or lower with Wave 3 (Green) targets near 35,000.

Daily Chart:

4HR Chart, preferred count:

4HR Chart, alternate count:

Note

It has been awhile since my last post as price had blow through all of our upside targets as we waited for the completion of wave 1 (green, Minor degree) and the larger correction which is clearly under way now.

We are now trying to find potential terminal targets for corrective wave 2 (Green) for long entries so we participate in the next major bullish impulse in Wave 3 (Green) with targets near 40,000.

We have met the minimum requirements to consider the correction complete as we have printed an ABC corrective structure terminating at 9050 however, I feel we need a bit more balance and a deeper correction from an Elliott Wave perspective.

So, it maybe we are unfolding in a connecting X wave and then looking to repeat another ABC corrective structure with initial targets near 7500ish.

There is a strong confluence of support at this area. It is the .618 fib level of Wave 1 (Green) and it is the limit of wave ((4)), Blue Circles, of one lower degree as well as intersecting with our up sloping trend line drawn against 3322, the lower limit of the base channel and the lower limit of the overall corrective channel, Green.

I would like to see 11,200/300ish are hold for the completion of this X wave creating an abc flat for the internals of wave X, to add credence to our count looking for lower lows before wave 3, Green, gets underway.

Daily Chart:

Note

Price has finally broken the upper limits of the corrective channel that has contained price for the last 6 months. Price has unfolded with overlapping price action in a corrective structure since the beginning of July 2018 and is now showing initial confirmation signs of a resumption of the larger bullish trend. While we are not out of the woods yet it is looking much more promising as we have printed a daily close above the corrective channel in what may be our first impulse of a new bullish acceleration channel that could last well into the latter half of 2020 in Wave 3 at the minor degree (Green), not shown.

I have adjusted the labelling for the overall corrective structure to reflect price action and have extended our connecting “X” wave completion to 10,465 with its subdivisions unfolding as a triangle to provide a better fit followed by the second ABC of a double compound correction and have anchored the completion of Wave 2 at the minor degree (Green) at 6417.

The advances against 6417 appear to have some momentum and for now are unfolding as an initial impulse of a new bullish move. Should price follow through I would expect to see continued vertical type movement with a local target at or near 10,500 for wave (iii) at the sub-minuette degree (light green) before consolidating as it is likely to find resistance at the limits of the connecting “X” wave of the double combo.

Let’s see how she unfolds.

Daily Chart:

Note

Bitcoins long term logarithmic price curve. All info on chart:

Note

Just a quick update to adjust the fib levels to reflect recent price action.

Daily Chart:

Note

Still eyeing 10,000
4HR Chart:

Note

This remains my preferred count with a terminal target near 10,000 to complete impulse ((i)) at the minute degree, orange circles.

There is a lot of resistance up near 10,000/10,500. As you can see it is was a bearish swing turn and key level during the previous corrective structure that contained price for 6 months. A impulsive break of that corrective structure is extremely bullish however a re-test of the upper limit of the corrective channel is likely in wave ((ii)) at the minute degree , orange circles, before further advances.

Daily Chart:

4HR Chart:

WaveRider1423

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