Part 2 - Bitcoin and the Next Crypto Bull Market
Part 2 – Daily Chart – Bearish Correction & Projections
Cycle Wave II (black) – Elliott Wave Analysis
BTC/USD, as previously mentioned in Part 1, has been unfolding with a downwards momentum ever since the peak back in October 2017.
The down-trend has been classified as a Complex Corrective Structure, more exactly as a Triple Three in its Primary WXYXZ (red) sub-waves.
Primary Wave W (red) unfolded as a Zig-Zag pattern, with a sharp reaction in Intermediate (A) (orange), then followed by a Double Three correction in the Minor WXY (purple) sub-waves of Intermediate (B) (orange). Intermediate (C) (orange) commenced a very powerful five-swings sequence, one which reached as low as $5920.01 levels, thus officially shaking the crypto market to its core.
Primary X (red) represents the failed attempt for a bullish continuation and it shows the typical three-swings sequence in its (A)(B)(C) (blue).
As the corrective structure became more and more complex, Primary Y (red) has also been unfolding as a Zig-Zag pattern, but with Intermediate (A) (orange) presenting a Leading Diagonal. Intermediate (B) (orange) presents a Simple Corrective Structure, with an Extension in its Minor C (blue) sub-wave. Intermediate (C) (orange) represents the effect of the second failed attempt for the BTC bulls to regain control and consist of a clean five-swings sequence in its Minor 12345 (red) sub-waves.
BTC/USD tried the third time to start a bullish trend, however, the second Primary X (red) in the overall Triple Three structure also failed to break-out of the Descending Channel.
After these three attempts to break-out of the Descending Channel, it seems as if BTC/USD could be gaining even more bearish momentum.
The last leg within Primary Z (red) would also need to be formed out of a three-swings sequence, thus resulting in labeling the first drop as Intermediate (A) (red).
Because of the fact that Intermediate (A) (red) presents a five-wave sequence as well, and also because the entire structure is corrective by nature, Primary Z (red) would also present a Zig-Zag pattern. This would result in classifying the entire correction in Cycle Wave II (black) as a Triple Zig-Zag.
Intermediate (B) (red) also presents a Simple ABC correction, retracing a considerable amount of Intermediate (A) (red), but getting rejected by the upper trend-line of the Descending Channel.
Primary Z (red) would be located at current times in bearish Intermediate (C) (red), and would unfold as a five-swings sequence, in an impulsive manner.
Intermediate (C) (red) already shown the first leg downwards and the retracement of that, with Minors 1 and 2 (red) finalized.
Moving forward, Minor 3 (red) could continue the bearish sentiment towards the $4800 levels, where the 100% Fibonacci Extensions of Intermediates (A) & (B) (red) would allow Minor 4 (red) to retrace approx. 38.2% of Minor 3 (red).
It can be noticed from most, if not all, of BTC’s impulsive swings, that wave five is actually the strongest. This fact could reflect towards BTC/USD finding its bottom below the $4200 levels and could even reach as low as $3500 levels.
During Part 1, the long-term view was shared and presented, and during this part (Part 2), a medium-term view has been covered.
Further to come, Part 3 will contain the short-term view and analysis, on the 2H time-frame.
Cycle Wave II (black) – Elliott Wave Analysis
BTC/USD, as previously mentioned in Part 1, has been unfolding with a downwards momentum ever since the peak back in October 2017.
The down-trend has been classified as a Complex Corrective Structure, more exactly as a Triple Three in its Primary WXYXZ (red) sub-waves.
Primary Wave W (red) unfolded as a Zig-Zag pattern, with a sharp reaction in Intermediate (A) (orange), then followed by a Double Three correction in the Minor WXY (purple) sub-waves of Intermediate (B) (orange). Intermediate (C) (orange) commenced a very powerful five-swings sequence, one which reached as low as $5920.01 levels, thus officially shaking the crypto market to its core.
Primary X (red) represents the failed attempt for a bullish continuation and it shows the typical three-swings sequence in its (A)(B)(C) (blue).
As the corrective structure became more and more complex, Primary Y (red) has also been unfolding as a Zig-Zag pattern, but with Intermediate (A) (orange) presenting a Leading Diagonal. Intermediate (B) (orange) presents a Simple Corrective Structure, with an Extension in its Minor C (blue) sub-wave. Intermediate (C) (orange) represents the effect of the second failed attempt for the BTC bulls to regain control and consist of a clean five-swings sequence in its Minor 12345 (red) sub-waves.
BTC/USD tried the third time to start a bullish trend, however, the second Primary X (red) in the overall Triple Three structure also failed to break-out of the Descending Channel.
After these three attempts to break-out of the Descending Channel, it seems as if BTC/USD could be gaining even more bearish momentum.
The last leg within Primary Z (red) would also need to be formed out of a three-swings sequence, thus resulting in labeling the first drop as Intermediate (A) (red).
Because of the fact that Intermediate (A) (red) presents a five-wave sequence as well, and also because the entire structure is corrective by nature, Primary Z (red) would also present a Zig-Zag pattern. This would result in classifying the entire correction in Cycle Wave II (black) as a Triple Zig-Zag.
Intermediate (B) (red) also presents a Simple ABC correction, retracing a considerable amount of Intermediate (A) (red), but getting rejected by the upper trend-line of the Descending Channel.
Primary Z (red) would be located at current times in bearish Intermediate (C) (red), and would unfold as a five-swings sequence, in an impulsive manner.
Intermediate (C) (red) already shown the first leg downwards and the retracement of that, with Minors 1 and 2 (red) finalized.
Moving forward, Minor 3 (red) could continue the bearish sentiment towards the $4800 levels, where the 100% Fibonacci Extensions of Intermediates (A) & (B) (red) would allow Minor 4 (red) to retrace approx. 38.2% of Minor 3 (red).
It can be noticed from most, if not all, of BTC’s impulsive swings, that wave five is actually the strongest. This fact could reflect towards BTC/USD finding its bottom below the $4200 levels and could even reach as low as $3500 levels.
During Part 1, the long-term view was shared and presented, and during this part (Part 2), a medium-term view has been covered.
Further to come, Part 3 will contain the short-term view and analysis, on the 2H time-frame.
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