This is a post so I could do a self evaluation of my trades. I'm a long term bitcoin bull but trading this as a bear market. Overall, I have done extremely well but want to look for areas of improvement while also providing information that is educational to new traders. Links to these updates here:
tradingview.com/u/rzmb44/
Nov 20 - Bitcoin Compared to Silver Parabola
I started moving to cash.
Dec 8 - Bitcoin Bull Flag
Short update where I was looking for a break up or down out of this channel.
Dec 22 - Bitcoin Price over Next 3-10 Days
I traded a dead cat bounce targeting $15400-$16500 area and suggested selling that area. Expected we could retest lows in 3-10 days. We retested lows 8 days later.
Dec 23 - Support Becomes Resistance
Show that area of resistance which was the top of the this short move up.
Dec 24 - Update on Bitcoin Bearish Move
I was still cautious. Not short but concerned that it would fall below $11000
Dec 28 - Bitcoin in Danger Area
Made a move up and then fell back below that line quickly. I really wasn't trading this much during the holidays.
Dec 29 - Bitcoin in Dangerous Area Again
More warnings and updating the key support lines, but in cash still was hoping to see bitcoin make a move.
Dec 30 - Bitcoin: The Battle to Stay Above $10k Begins
Still in cash. No decisions made, looking for some signs of a strength to see if we can make a move. So my mistake here was not going long.
Jan 12 - Bitcoin Getting to Another Critical Level
Generally in cash but identified clear bullish and bearish cases.
Jan 20 - Bitcoin at Critical Level Again ---- *****MY DECISION TO SHORT*****
I finally received enough information to tell me that Bitcoin was going down (6 weeks after the top).
Feb 2 - Did Bitcoin Just Bottom: - ****LONG AT $7600
I added when we moved to $9000 and dipped to the .618 at $8200. My average was $8300.
Feb 3 - Trading the Bitcoin Reversal
"I'm taking partial profits from $9200 to $9500 from my average buy around $8300."
I was looking to get short at $10k but it never happened.
Feb 9 - Trading the Bitcion Reversal Take 2
My first buy was just below $8000 on that pullback, but that turned out to be a good trade. I ended up taking partial profits
Feb 17 - Concerns About Bull Trap
Bitcoin was back at $11000 and I was showing a chart of Bitcoin in 2014 where it had a monster bull trap.
Feb 20 Close to the top ($11700) - *****One of the RARE traders to short
Everyone was super bullish but I shorted this perfectly
Feb 26 - Bitcoin Turning
In this post I just talk about going long until $9800 where I did end up taking profits on my long position and started looking to reshort. I should have held a bit longer.
Mar 5 - Understanding the Bitcion Parabola
Important post where I expand on history of Parabolas.
I attempted several shorts from $10k to $11700 and got stopped out before I eventually was able to get into a good short position at $11500.
March 18 - Today is an Incredibly Important Day for Bitcoin
We were at a critical level with some support so I attempted to go long but stopped out.
March 29 - With Bitcoin Expect the Unexpected
Overall I didn't trade much in March, but I was looking for a bounce here. I was cautious but eventually recognized accumulation and went long at $6500. Called the short squeeze.
At this point, I'm long and still evaluating. I'm expecting to signs of weakness in 3-10 days where I will reshort. My biggest mistakes were taking profits and not letting trades work longer. So I don't want to get to eager to go short. It is possible that bottom is in but I would need to see more signs to stay long. If the bear market continues I will update with a part 2 from this point.
tradingview.com/u/rzmb44/
Nov 20 - Bitcoin Compared to Silver Parabola
I started moving to cash.
Dec 8 - Bitcoin Bull Flag
Short update where I was looking for a break up or down out of this channel.
Dec 22 - Bitcoin Price over Next 3-10 Days
I traded a dead cat bounce targeting $15400-$16500 area and suggested selling that area. Expected we could retest lows in 3-10 days. We retested lows 8 days later.
Dec 23 - Support Becomes Resistance
Show that area of resistance which was the top of the this short move up.
Dec 24 - Update on Bitcoin Bearish Move
I was still cautious. Not short but concerned that it would fall below $11000
Dec 28 - Bitcoin in Danger Area
Made a move up and then fell back below that line quickly. I really wasn't trading this much during the holidays.
Dec 29 - Bitcoin in Dangerous Area Again
More warnings and updating the key support lines, but in cash still was hoping to see bitcoin make a move.
Dec 30 - Bitcoin: The Battle to Stay Above $10k Begins
Still in cash. No decisions made, looking for some signs of a strength to see if we can make a move. So my mistake here was not going long.
Jan 12 - Bitcoin Getting to Another Critical Level
Generally in cash but identified clear bullish and bearish cases.
Jan 20 - Bitcoin at Critical Level Again ---- *****MY DECISION TO SHORT*****
I finally received enough information to tell me that Bitcoin was going down (6 weeks after the top).
Feb 2 - Did Bitcoin Just Bottom: - ****LONG AT $7600
I added when we moved to $9000 and dipped to the .618 at $8200. My average was $8300.
Feb 3 - Trading the Bitcoin Reversal
"I'm taking partial profits from $9200 to $9500 from my average buy around $8300."
I was looking to get short at $10k but it never happened.
Feb 9 - Trading the Bitcion Reversal Take 2
My first buy was just below $8000 on that pullback, but that turned out to be a good trade. I ended up taking partial profits
Feb 17 - Concerns About Bull Trap
Bitcoin was back at $11000 and I was showing a chart of Bitcoin in 2014 where it had a monster bull trap.
Feb 20 Close to the top ($11700) - *****One of the RARE traders to short
Everyone was super bullish but I shorted this perfectly
Feb 26 - Bitcoin Turning
In this post I just talk about going long until $9800 where I did end up taking profits on my long position and started looking to reshort. I should have held a bit longer.
Mar 5 - Understanding the Bitcion Parabola
Important post where I expand on history of Parabolas.
I attempted several shorts from $10k to $11700 and got stopped out before I eventually was able to get into a good short position at $11500.
March 18 - Today is an Incredibly Important Day for Bitcoin
We were at a critical level with some support so I attempted to go long but stopped out.
March 29 - With Bitcoin Expect the Unexpected
Overall I didn't trade much in March, but I was looking for a bounce here. I was cautious but eventually recognized accumulation and went long at $6500. Called the short squeeze.
At this point, I'm long and still evaluating. I'm expecting to signs of weakness in 3-10 days where I will reshort. My biggest mistakes were taking profits and not letting trades work longer. So I don't want to get to eager to go short. It is possible that bottom is in but I would need to see more signs to stay long. If the bear market continues I will update with a part 2 from this point.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.