Bullish and Bearish cases for Bitcoin right now
It is the question on Everyones lips right now
Where next for Bitcoin
And there are so many options available to look at
To start on the Bullish . The chart above is very dependant on PA still following previous cycle patterns and, if it is, then we still have a long way to go as we have only just entered the 4th section of a 4 year cycle. As you can see, ATH;s are reached when we break over the top line...and we are not even half way there yet.
As you may know if you have seen my previous charts, I believe we are following a fractal of the 2013-2017 ATH cycle.
The Circle on the left highlights where I thin we are on that fractel and you can see it involves 4 months of range. PA came up to the line, ranged below for 4 months and then broke through
We have crossed that line in this cycle and began ranging
We have just begun the 3rd Month
If we look at that fractel a little closer
https://www.tradingview.com/x/osKeP9He/
We can see how PA has followed Fractal and how, right now, we are about to break under it.
We did that in August to October 2023 and it could be sauid that that period was very nearly and entry into a Bear market. Onchain data indicated that.
This is where I begin to get bearish. But I still believe that Q3 & Q4 will be good for BTC
Maybe we will repeat that August - October 2023 -18% Dip.
So, Why am I also Bearish
There are a number of reasons. The First and most suggestive reason is simply the Weekly MACD is overbought, up high, higher than it was in 2021 ATH zone.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xOGpadWs/
I have never seen the weekly MACD range high like that. the closest was back in 2013
Now this does not mean PA will Drop but it does mean PA is overbought and it will react.
RSI is way up high also
And one of the easiest ways of seeing the Bearish case is simply the chart below
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ooj5CVbN/
PA has reached the Rejecting trend line that rejected PA 2017 and 2021 - BUT, a valid trendline requires a minimum of 3 touches. PA has not fully reached the trend line yet, there is another 5%, so one last push is still possible, to around 110K
And then we have Mr Trump and his pre election promises of Bitcoin reserves that now seem to be put on a shelf.
As we are seeing, Mr Trump uses words as leverage and negotiates his path with them.
Tarif threats to China, for instance, have resulted in a "Talk about future deals"
Was his Bitcoin Talk only there to use as leverage against Banks to get what he wants.......
I remind you, As of February 4, 2025, Eric Trump, the son of Donald Trump, has publicly endorsed Ether, suggesting it's a "great time" to invest in the cryptocurrency. This endorsement came as the Trump family's crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, transferred over $307 million in crypto to Coinbase Prime, including $212.6 million in Ether.
ETH is the favoured one in the USA, they can controll it.
So, whats next for BITCOIN?
We have to wait, there are arguments for and against
We have just entered the 4th year of a 4 year cycle, historically, the year of ATH
Sentiment is good and Bitcoin acceptance by corporations world wide has spread rapidly.
Numerous technicals suggest more to come after a cool down
Conversly, we do seem to be under pressure from other Technicals that may tip the balance against further rises on Bitcoin.
Macro situations are becoming more volatile.
The USA economy is facing rising inflation again and with Trumps policy, may suffer a major reset, which would knock the wind out of the Crpyto market.
If the $ becomes Stronger, as it is expected to do, this will knock the wind out of the Crpyto Market
We are also seeing GOLD take a lot of money again, keeping Bitcoin from taking that money.
We all need to watch very carefully right now.
Thigs could change VERY quickly in either direction.
For me, I have plans in place and I am waiting, watching
Be Ready my friends.....do not be caught by surprise
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.