Short

Bitcoin begins to form downward run

Updated

In the previous detailed analysis, the upper points and targets were determined: based on TIs = 4H/5H U/BB ~ 7770, and also based on SMA/EMA = 5H EMA100. So, bitcoin has almost reached the set targets by touching ~ 7750. For the last few hours, bitcoin has been traded near daily SMA20 (M/BB), without forming clear signals for further growth or fall, and without visible movements to test the upper or lower boundaries.

1) Let’s analyze the further possible movements based on TIs, as now it is more possible to run new opportunity for downward swing trade.

At the 4H TF, we have a number of potential downward projections: CCI=61 (negative trend, downward cross of 100), ROC=2 (negative trend), MACD=35 (MACD seeks down to the signal line), DMI=17 (+ DI seeks down to -DI), %R=-36. At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF.

At the daily TF, TIs are giving mixed signals: CCI=6 (positive trend), ROC=-6 (negative trend), MACD=-220 (MACD > signal line), DMI=30 (+DI < -DI), %R=-15.

Generally, TIs indicate a possible end of the upward trend and a transition to a drop to L/BB ~ 7400.

2) If we consider the analysis based on SMA/EMA, then we can highlight the following important points:

At the 4H/5H TF: EMA6 seeks down to EMA9; EMA12 > EMA26; SMA10 > SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA100 (except 5H TF). MAs clearly do not indicate a drop, although if we have further drop to M/BB, then SMA/EMA projections may change - and then we can expect testing down to SMA/EMA50 ~ 7530–7580.

At the daily TF, SMA10 seeks up to SMA20. EMA6, EMA9, EMA12 seek to ~ 7600, while EMA: 6 < 9 < 12 < 26 < 50 < 100.

Generally, MAs indicates a possible deep test down to L/BB ~ 6900.

Finally, if bitcoin would fix above 5H SMA100, securely fixing above daily SMA20 (daily M/BB), then we might expect growth to the specified 7800–8200.

Now I’m more inclined to think that we are at the beginning of the formation of an opportunity for a downward swing trade down to L/BB ~ 6900–7400.

Take care of your BTC and USD

Note

Quick update.

In last analysis two important things were mentioned:
1) Based on 4H/5H TIs, it was indicated about possible end of the upward trend and a transition to a drop to L/BB.
2) Based on 4H/5H MAs, it was expected to have testing down to SMA/EMA50 ~ 7530-7580.

Generally, it was concluded, that we are beginning to form a downward swing trade, down to L/BB ~ 6900-7400.

So, if anyone is following this boring TA, than longs should have been already closed at 7650 and shifted into fiat or into shorts.

Now 4H/5H TIs (CCI, MACD, DMI) have negative trend, %R is not yet oversold, ROC is neutral. Moreover, 4H/5H MAs also have negative trend: EMA6 < EMA9, EMA12 seeks down EMA26.

So, bitcoin might break down 5H SMA50, 4H SMA100 and targeting to 4H/5H L/BB.

Note

Note

In the last analysis a downward target was formed: based on 4H/5H MAs, it was expected to have a decline to SMA/EMA50 ~ 7530–7580. After this bitcoin rebounded up from the support at 5H SMA50, and immediately slowed the further growth at 5H SMA100.

Lets analyze further possible movements:

1) Based on TIs, we can distinguish the following:

At the 4H TF, we have a number of potential downstream projections: CCI=2 (negative trend), ROC=0 (negative trend), MACD=15 (MACD < signal line, DMI=13 (+DI < -DI), %R=-43. At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF.

At the daily TF, TIs are giving down-signals: CCI=0 (negative trend), ROC=-7 (negative trend), MACD=-200 (MACD seeks down to signal line), DMI=30 (+DI < -DI), %R=-18.

In general, TIs point to a significant transition to L/BB ~ 7450.

2) Based on SMA/EMA, we can distinguish the following:

At the 4H/5H and daily TF: EMA6, 9, 12, 26, 50 are concentrated around 7600–7650, with small positive projections.

In general, MAs indicates a possible increase to 5H U/BB and 5H EMA100 ~ 7740–7780, though with further rejection.

Finally, if bitcoin would fix above 4H EMA100 ~ 7680, then we can expect growth to 5H EMA100 ~ 7740–7780. Nevertheless, if such growth takes place, I would recommend further increasing of short positions, while increasing SL (including the first short entries) to the level of “entry + daily ATR” ~ 8050–8090.

The targets for a potential downward swing trade are still the same, at daily L/BB ~ 7000–7100.

Note

Bitcoin is traded on very small volumes, waiting for a breakout up or down, and traders are hanging over the buy/sell button to open their positions in time, depending on the trend.

In the last analysis, I pointed out: if bitcoin would fix above 4H EMA100, only then we would expect growth to 5H EMA100 - but during the last few hours bitcoin was traded only above 4H/5H SMA50 and below M/BB, while BB "tightens"; and on the daily TF, bitcoin was traded near daily SMA20 (M/BB), which puts downtrend.
Let us analyze further possible movements, although the changes from the past analysis are minimal:

1) On the basis of TI, we can check the following:

At the 4H TF we have a number of potential downward projections: CCI=-44 (positive trend), ROC=0 (negative trend), MACD=6 (MACD < signal line, DMI=13 (+DI < -DI), %R=-59. At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF.

On the daily TF, TIs are giving mixed signals: CCI=14 (positive trend), ROC=-10 (negative trend), MACD=-190 (MACD > signal line), DMI=30 (+DI < -DI), %R=-21.

In general, TIs points to a slight drop to 4H/5H L/BB ~ 7550.

2) Based on SMA/EMA, we can check the following:
At the 4H/5H: SMA10 < SMA 20; SMA10 seeks down to SMA50; EMA6, 9, 12, 26, 50 are concentrated around 7600-7650, with small positive projections.

Overall, MAs indicates a possible increase to 5H U/BB and 5H EMA100 ~ 7750.

Finally, if bitcoin would jump to 4H EMA100, then we might expect an increase to 5H EMA100. Nevertheless, with such growth, I would recommend further increasing of shorts, while increasing SL (including for the first shorts) to the level of "entry + daily ATR" ~ 8100.

The targets for the potential downward swing trade are about daily L/BB ~ 7000-7100.

Note

So, shorts... If anyone reads my boring TA: opened at 7650, SL at 7950.

Now, its time to take some minor profit at 7400. Next target at 7100, further at 7000. SL moved to 7600 to have them all profitable, in any case.

As I wrote at the very beginning of this swing, 3 days ago: I'm more inclined to think that we are forming a downward swing trade, down to L/BB ~ 6900-7400.

Trade closed: target reached

If briefly - I recommend to close shorts, so we completely fix the profit.

The target at daily L/BB (current downward swing trade) is nearly reached. The most reasonable and risk-free option is to move all positions into fiat, in order to wait for the more clear trend. But I suggest the following risk: now we might start working with an upward swing trade, so at this stage we might open long, with target at 7600-7900, SL will be set lower than the daily L/BB (if the daily L/BB is broken down at 4H/5H TF, then we should again go short).

I will write mores details later. Good luck to all!

DvdGoldberg

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