basic BTC logic, game-theory.

Updated

50% (fib) is a motivational driver. 60% motivates. 100% motivates.. and out of drivers.

people make up stories and reasons why something runs, with the PT's and so on?

I find Fibonacci to be convenient? (ie fib shows you the strength of trend, that u cant fake. since it's math)

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using fib for spx. You can do it two-ways? it's more of a psychological driver, than rule. People seek conviction and "crowd" safety. Third "wave" would be the 2024 rally, led by NVDA and AI? trend was broken due to Q1 tax-deadline approaching? maybe trend can continue, but who knows. NVDA looks expensive, btc has been struggling, ie it's psychology over anything.

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here is fib's universal "1:1.6" law. It's math but interestingly fits with the markets, maybe due to psychology (ratios feel appealing to eye or something?). In short- the first 1 unit (or 100%) comes trough grind and 1.6 gets filled easily, but trend becomes weak. Look at BTC at 48k to 68k (1->1.6).

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here is one for pandemic crude oil. From 44$ to 70$ (or 1->1.6). The 1->1.6 came easily, whilst first 44$ came trough grinding. Doesn't fit perfectly but it's more of an art than science. later price above 70$ was a grind (and I assume different drivers? ie in longterm graph, 73$ was the 50% middle point, ie new opportunity).

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other way to look at it is first 2/3 is safer? and the rest is the 1/3 push. (or final wave). new pattern emerges

crude oil above 85$? SPX above 4600. BTC above 48k etc?

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-> greatest traders or speculants are ones who find themselves in "easy" markets, ie path to least resistance works in your favor not against. It's easier said than done obv.

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NVDA wouldnt fit this logic until you change to log. view. It's psychology.

citsvar

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