Good Friday morning, traders. As we can see, price has continued to follow the path we outlined earlier this week as it has worked through its retracement. Again, retracement is a good thing since it allows buyers (in this case) to gain some support and build momentum for another impulsive wave series up. As usual, there are no guarantees in trading, so a move below $6100 would likely set up a retest of the recent $5755 low and probably end up targeting as low as the $5250 area. However, current continued price action development does not support this path.
I have drawn out what I believe is currently happening on this 1H chart and where it may lead. This is the same thing we have discussed during the daily live streams. It also fits the narrative of a retracement finding support between 50% and 61.8% of the movement up from the previous low, as well as retesting the prior 2 month-long resistance line as support, and ultimately bouncing out of support (blue box). What we have believed to be the ascending channel has yet to be confirmed, so this move down during the retracement should put price at/near what may be the bottom of the channel as seen on the 6H chart. This area is at the bottom of the 6H cloud, providing yet more support for this likely price path.
Ultimately, we want to see price bounce out of that blue box and, ideally, remain above the pivot point at $6225. A breach of this pivot point and close below it suggests that the market is bearish on this 6H time frame. If, on the off-chance, we see price breaching the swing high at $6784.90 prior to all of this, then we should expect to see it target R2 at $6990. This being said, should price continue following the outlined movement, then we can consider it to be Wave 2 and we should then expect to see an ensuing Wave 3 targeting the 1.618 extension at $7405.90, which is right below R3.
I have drawn out what I believe is currently happening on this 1H chart and where it may lead. This is the same thing we have discussed during the daily live streams. It also fits the narrative of a retracement finding support between 50% and 61.8% of the movement up from the previous low, as well as retesting the prior 2 month-long resistance line as support, and ultimately bouncing out of support (blue box). What we have believed to be the ascending channel has yet to be confirmed, so this move down during the retracement should put price at/near what may be the bottom of the channel as seen on the 6H chart. This area is at the bottom of the 6H cloud, providing yet more support for this likely price path.
Ultimately, we want to see price bounce out of that blue box and, ideally, remain above the pivot point at $6225. A breach of this pivot point and close below it suggests that the market is bearish on this 6H time frame. If, on the off-chance, we see price breaching the swing high at $6784.90 prior to all of this, then we should expect to see it target R2 at $6990. This being said, should price continue following the outlined movement, then we can consider it to be Wave 2 and we should then expect to see an ensuing Wave 3 targeting the 1.618 extension at $7405.90, which is right below R3.
Note
Bitcoin's market dominance has increased to 42.5%. As I have mentioned before, increasing BTC dominance is usually a precursor to a bullish cycle, whether it is just short term or a complete reversal, so traders should be watching it as well.coinmarketcap.com/
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.