Bitcoin bear market... is it over?
It's been a rough year for Bitcoin. I've seen many people's opinions, some like to draw a descending triangle while others like to draw a wedge. I've seen some people take its low volume as a warning sign while others like to draw a giant resistance line, all the while re-adjusting it every time the price breaks through while claiming there will be a giant "break out" anywhere from 25k to 1 million. What we have to realize is that a lot of trends we see are SUBJECTIVE, and just because you see a trend doesn't mean it will play out.
As a general rule, if a price pattern could be interpreted as either bearish or bullish then either you are pushing the limits of technical analysis, or you should look at the price from a different perspective. Which brings me back to the question: Is it over? The answer is have have LIKELY found the bottom, but the the chance of a breakdown below 6k support can't be ruled out completely. Contrary to popular belief, up isn't the only way crypto can go. Right now we are moving sideways with supply and demand being pretty much equal, which is a positive sign but the bear market isn't over yet. It's over only when we have confirmation of a bull market, which will be when both volume picks up, AND the price is able to hold above a previous resistance/above long term moving average.
Until we see that happen anything else is just speculation. Forget shapes and oscillators we need to go back to the basics. Moving averages, support/resistance and volume are the only RELIABLE indicators for evaluating if BTC is out of a bear market. What we also have to realize is that when the bear market is over, it is very unlikely to be a "break out" like i've seen some people claim. Don't mistake price jumps for the next bull run, BTC needs to gain momentum over time. My answer probably isn't what people want to hear, but its the truth. Rather than getting hyped up over every little price jump or whatever news gets released, look at the bigger picture and wait for confirmation.
As a general rule, if a price pattern could be interpreted as either bearish or bullish then either you are pushing the limits of technical analysis, or you should look at the price from a different perspective. Which brings me back to the question: Is it over? The answer is have have LIKELY found the bottom, but the the chance of a breakdown below 6k support can't be ruled out completely. Contrary to popular belief, up isn't the only way crypto can go. Right now we are moving sideways with supply and demand being pretty much equal, which is a positive sign but the bear market isn't over yet. It's over only when we have confirmation of a bull market, which will be when both volume picks up, AND the price is able to hold above a previous resistance/above long term moving average.
Until we see that happen anything else is just speculation. Forget shapes and oscillators we need to go back to the basics. Moving averages, support/resistance and volume are the only RELIABLE indicators for evaluating if BTC is out of a bear market. What we also have to realize is that when the bear market is over, it is very unlikely to be a "break out" like i've seen some people claim. Don't mistake price jumps for the next bull run, BTC needs to gain momentum over time. My answer probably isn't what people want to hear, but its the truth. Rather than getting hyped up over every little price jump or whatever news gets released, look at the bigger picture and wait for confirmation.
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