BTC 1MONTH CANDLES - LET'S ZOOM OUT AND PREDICT HOW 2018 ENDS :)
Updated
This monthly candle seems crucial.
I see two major scenarios that can play out from here.
Scenario (A):
If September candle closes above the green support line, then we go bullish for the remainder of 2018. HODL and accumulate BTC on dips. This is the relatively easy scenario.
Scenario (B)
If September closes below the green support, then we could go bearish for the remainder of 2018. I would start to develop some healthy fear if you have a lot of your money in BTC.
The green support line would become resistance.
The purple support line is where I would expect a bounce if the bearish scenario starts to play out. Don't get trapped trying to trade a bounce from the $5800-$5700 zone. There are too many people eyeing this price zone, which makes it extremely dangerous. Wait for a solid confirmation in either direction instead. Again, DON'T GET TRAPPED TRADING THE $5800-5700 PRICE ZONE, OR A WHALE WILL EAT YOU ALIVE.
I'd expect the price to follow the red resistance line down to $3,000 or worse if scenario (B) plays out. Then, I'd expect a reversal and bear exhaustion around $3,000, but an even lower price wouldn't be completely out of the question.
Another possibility for scenario (B), let's call it (B.1), is that the price doesn't head straight down, but instead tests the green line as resistance after bouncing from the purple support line. Failing to break it, it would then head back down toward the blue line at $3,000.
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Some final thoughts for 2018...
Don't listen to people who say that BTC "can't" go lower than a certain price, whether because of mining profitability or whatever other reason.
There's no mathematical "rule" that will keep BTC above a certain price if the market goes full bear, and you should be ignoring people who are claiming that there is a "certainty" the price can't go lower at any point.
Now, this wouldn't mean BTC would go to $0 and die. It probably won't ever completely die like that.
Mining will always find its way, whether it moves to lower electricity cost locations, or moving to alternative energies, or some other unforeseen scenario. The point is, the profitability of mining failing isn't a guarantee the price goes to $0 and BTC dies by any means.
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My bias is bearish for the rest of 2018. But I'm not confident enough in either scenario's probability to trade it with any sizable position. I would start buying at ~$3,000 in any case.
Good luck, and see you in 2019!
I see two major scenarios that can play out from here.
Scenario (A):
If September candle closes above the green support line, then we go bullish for the remainder of 2018. HODL and accumulate BTC on dips. This is the relatively easy scenario.
Scenario (B)
If September closes below the green support, then we could go bearish for the remainder of 2018. I would start to develop some healthy fear if you have a lot of your money in BTC.
The green support line would become resistance.
The purple support line is where I would expect a bounce if the bearish scenario starts to play out. Don't get trapped trying to trade a bounce from the $5800-$5700 zone. There are too many people eyeing this price zone, which makes it extremely dangerous. Wait for a solid confirmation in either direction instead. Again, DON'T GET TRAPPED TRADING THE $5800-5700 PRICE ZONE, OR A WHALE WILL EAT YOU ALIVE.
I'd expect the price to follow the red resistance line down to $3,000 or worse if scenario (B) plays out. Then, I'd expect a reversal and bear exhaustion around $3,000, but an even lower price wouldn't be completely out of the question.
Another possibility for scenario (B), let's call it (B.1), is that the price doesn't head straight down, but instead tests the green line as resistance after bouncing from the purple support line. Failing to break it, it would then head back down toward the blue line at $3,000.
---
Some final thoughts for 2018...
Don't listen to people who say that BTC "can't" go lower than a certain price, whether because of mining profitability or whatever other reason.
There's no mathematical "rule" that will keep BTC above a certain price if the market goes full bear, and you should be ignoring people who are claiming that there is a "certainty" the price can't go lower at any point.
Now, this wouldn't mean BTC would go to $0 and die. It probably won't ever completely die like that.
Mining will always find its way, whether it moves to lower electricity cost locations, or moving to alternative energies, or some other unforeseen scenario. The point is, the profitability of mining failing isn't a guarantee the price goes to $0 and BTC dies by any means.
---
My bias is bearish for the rest of 2018. But I'm not confident enough in either scenario's probability to trade it with any sizable position. I would start buying at ~$3,000 in any case.
Good luck, and see you in 2019!
Note
So the monthly candle landed right on the green support line. I would call this indecision. I would sit on the sidelines and wait for a stronger confirmation one way or the other. It's really hard to call at this point. Better to wait for a lower risk play and miss out on a little bit than to jump in too early for a risky trade, right?
Nonetheless, I have bearish bias.
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