Crypto spam box 6. Whales have 5 weeks left to cash out.

Updated

Warriors Bitcoin started moving Aaaaaaaaahhh I want to fight!

Want to know why 2018 looks like a copy paste of 2014? Self fulfilling prophecy.
The whales that went throught a bear market know what to expect. With or without them it will happen, but since they control half the supply and have this past experience, their actions follow what happened last time, just like all the crypto guru's that joined in 2017 keep calling for BTC bottom because "it always goes up" and that's all they know. Like Pavlov dog experiment... Pretty depressing than most human beings are no smarter than dogs but whatever I'm used to it now.
For the whales thought, following a path just like 2014's is the least risky choice.

I set short orders in the first box around 10300, I feel this is riskier than usual lol.
The whales are trying to cash out and they'll push the price if they have to to be able to do so. Today we saw a large move up with no volume.
They don't even need to risk that much to push the price.

In june (mid or late we will see) I will enter shot positions with great confidence, but until then it's rather risky and have to be babysitted, I'll have to take profit and always be careful the price doesn't move back up hard while I'm looking away.

10300 is a good short area for me for several reasons, they are secret. Ok it's a monthly level and there's some fibo's that are there.
+ RSI getting high.

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I know some people like the bagholder quotes, here is a thread about Blizzard, their stock dropped so fast trading was halted lol.
reddit.com/r/investing/comments/8gsm67/atvi_shares_dive_5_all_trading_halted/

Someone asked why the stock dip so much if earnings are correct and someone answered "Meaning the investors are being dumbasses for no real valkd reason."
Sums it up.
Oh and the good old "It's ok I'm still in the green", always here.

Lmao that thing still going down after capitulation riiiiip.

The funniest remain the BTC crypto guru's or whatever you call them that have been calling the bottom on BTC since 17k. How are people still listening to them?
They're just going to keep calling bottoms until one is found and tell every one how right they were...

Bet LMT would go up (opened a bull put):

Zooming out so you see the gravity of the situation:

Good morning, you have been margin called.
reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/8gpwz8/good_morning_you_have_been_margin_called/

Oh let me remind you how BTC looks like:

If BTC goes up and today's people make money they are so lucky XD
Still, I make more ROI trading waves and forex every day than BTC going to let's say 50k in 6 months.

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Trying out a new indicator.
If BTC goes down from here then it's good otherwise it's bad :D

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Tether sent 100 million back to their reserve wallet.
I don't know what that means and if it's reason for FUD.
Would be glad if someone that knows told me if it has any signification.

omniexplorer.info/tx/e98d31ca6dcc628291132db4898d8b79189d675a4bc33ec31a3c47281d607962
omniexplorer.info/address/1NTMakcgVwQpMdGxRQnFKyb3G1FAJysSfz

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About my hedge short... The BTC I lost if I close now... the funding I received is 15% of that.
I shorted 80% not full account but even if I did, so I'd miss on the pump but I'd still get 15% of that pump goodness through funding? Damn this is just TOO easy.

Come on o.0

Goes down = I make BTC don't lose anything Goes up = I make some money with 0 risk so I can actually short more up there.

If you short just the right amount... you could end up being 100% sure to get passive income... + limit orders for tiny rebate...
People hate math that much?

I'm just figuring when it goes up and everyone longs you receive funding and if it goes down you pay it...

That tasty funding just stays with you forever. Bonus. And if it ends up going down your unrealized loss disappears, and if it goes up you assume it's going to retrace at some point and keep shorting...

At some point it's a balance between going small step by step to guarentee a win 100% but not going so small that you make ridiculous amounts of money.

I prefer this 100 times than the usual "oh this head and shoulder and BS TA has a risk to reward of 4:1 remember to cut your losses".

A WARRIOR NEVER LOSES MUAHAHAHAHA.
On really good entries, it's ok to risk a bit you got to make some money at some point not just 45$ or something a day lol.

And then there's the possibility to find guarenteed patterns...
Let's just say I don't care anymore about crypto because Forex is actually free magical money that grows on trees. I can't believe it.

"But you could have made more" lmao.
This is how casino's get their money back when there's a big winner right?
They offer him drinks bring girls to keep him around and tease him to try to double his money to "make even more".

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Let's say I hit my head on a rock and I think this is "the epic bullrun start of a wonderfull journey we beat the big meanies bears that want us to get out of our chairs and video games and don't want us to be happy and smoke all day".

Ok so let's say NOW is this miracle bull run to make a bunch of lazy idiots rich and we're as bullish as BTC in 2015 at the end of 7 months of accumulation after capitulation and when the market cap was much smaller.
So... even in this totally delusional scenario, BTC would retrace 8% once it hits 11000~ AND then we go to the moon and retrace 40% back to where we are right now.

Even in the most bullish impossible scenario, it's near impossible to miss out....
If BTC goes past 15k I'll be the first one calling for a potential bull run giga bubble and going long on pullback...

Even in a fantasy scenario I'll make money... "Uuh but you could have made moar" <=== you don't need much money to buy a rope ;)

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Crypto enthusiasts missed out today since they were busy with crypto.
Some stocks went up double digit percents hahaha.

Also some shitstocks with 1500$ volume daily went up 300%
Haha missed out.

Fking monkeys...

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Looks pretty natural

So what it retraced exactly to the very cent?
Retail traders just happened to buy the pullback at this price.

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Want to see a cool magic trick?

Illoominati!

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Forgot one fibo.
If you manage to see anything, it's pretty magical.

All in.

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Someone remind me to short 5 figures at 10700 & secure profit on 500$ dip no greed.
And short 6 figures past 11000 hehehe.
Yes, yes go up to the moon! gogogo baghodlers you will be rich keep buying!

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I see highly intelligent professional analysts in suits calling for 25k because Goldman Sachs will enable its clients to trade Bitcoin.
Here is my view:

What actually happened when CME launched their futures (that are settled in cash):

Reminder, Lisk:

I had an idea on Lisk about their rebrand where I posted 4 scenarios. My most probable one was we dump and then go up later on.
This is what is happening, imo we aren't done dumping thought. I don't even know why I even made 4 scenarios "to be unbiased" lmao.
Pure waste of time it was absolutely certain this would happen.

youtube.com/watch?v=zjedLeVGcfE

Sources for facts:
Dec 1 CME announces they are launching BTC futures.
Source: cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2017/12/01/cme_group_self-certifiesbitcoinfuturestolaunchdec18.html
I didn't find anything before that date.

Dec 1 CBOE announces they'll offer futures BEFORE CME (lol)
Source: cboe.com/blogs/options-hub/2017/12/01/cboe-bitcoin-futures-announcement

Now... for the punchline...

Dec 17 news of Goldman Sachs opening a BTC trading desk appear once again:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/goldman-is-said-to-be-building-a-cryptocurrency-trading-desk

Feb 2 news that Goldman Sachs had a Bitcoin trading desk since 2015 (LOL):
cryptoslate.com/goldman-sachs-already-crypto-trading-desk/

May 02 news that GS are opening a trading desk in the next few weeks (they'll trade via CME/CBOE I guess?)
nytimes.com/2018/05/02/technology/bitcoin-goldman-sachs.html

PS: Maybe Dimon and his buddies are the whales looking to unload their BTC? XD
Everything would make so much sense, the 1HR pump from 6000's the low volume etc...

PSPS: I don't even know what usually happens when GS offers something new or how many products they let their clients trade.
All I can find on google is porn, tons of articles on how much day traders really make, how to get rich quick with no effort from your home, more porn, more pleb stuff etc more dumb useless stuff.

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Well I said I wasn't emotional that isn't true.
I discovered something and I'm absolutely losing my shit right now.

12 years ago I was the first human being (probably) to discover something (not telling) and now I found something again.

I'm going crazy. My heart feels so tense.
Ok I'm emotional.

What do you do when you discover things so big you don't even know what to do?

I think I'm the greatest mind of all times.

Muahahahaha when I reveal all that stuff it will be so funny.

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Declining volume... as high as we've been in weeks...
Going long at the bottom when we were sitting on weekly MA50 and oversold was interesting (especially ETH I wish I followed my own idea and longed some rather than "play safe" XD Well I did but sold early), longing BTC when it went past the correction line was interesting (that what I did went long at 8800 a bit late but it's k I expected 20% upside from 8300 that almost got reached - I closed last week at 9700 where I actually shorted it as I said).

NOW thought, going long STINKS. Lmao some people say I'm biased but I called to go long at the bottom (wasn't sure about that one) & go long on trendline break around 8500 guarenteed.

If it goes up I'll short, but I rather neck myself than long now!
Oh btw technically I was long since 8800$ since my mex account is in XBT, I hedged it along the way progressively and now I got a short position for 120% of my account (was at 100% on 9700). ;)
Literally didn't miss a crumb of the moves.
Just took a loss on Kraken where I opened a swing trade short at 8300$ and didn't manage it well :'(

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Oh MagicPoopCannon is calling to go long if we go past 9900-10000 in his latest lesson.
Increasing the size of my short orders in that region.

tradingview.com/u/MagicPoopCannon/

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Trying to find out how markets scale on google (can I enter 10MM positions?) is fun!
Spammed with useless answers "How much can you make" and more stupid stuff to trigger people greed, page after page.
Well, I tried.

On EURUSD there is commonly thousands of lots (fxcm) on trading view volume traded per 15 min, so that means 1000*100000 = 100's millions traded every 15 minutes? That seems too much...
I have no idea what the truth is, that info that is actually useful is impossible to find!

But sure if I want to get ads for a dumb article telling me "what the life of day traders really is" or a paid program to "get rich quick and with 0 efforts" I'll have nooo problem finding that.
Well, it's what people want and this is why I can make money off them, so I can't really complain...

If daily is 5 trillion and EURUSD is 20% ==> 1 trillion day = 41 billion/hour in total and since I'm in no dealing desk I guess that means I have access to all of that?
I really wonder what the cap is... Maybe I should start looking for "how much do they really make" XD

The rich people with money to waste getting 10MM liquidated on bitmex offer us all that money, so there is money to be made for sure.
Millions of little fish chasing pumps + whales throwing millions of their money away = all for the exchanges? Plus a few select ones scraping bits here and there?

We're going to get into the week end, don't expect much to happen in crypto.. maybe this evening, maybe tomorrow who knows.

At some point I'll get my money out of crypto, it's a waste of time.
I'm a trader I couldn't care less if I trade crypto stocks currencies or dirt in panama.
So after June-July where I expect volatility, if I believe not much will happen I'm out till something moves.

Going to have to look at past years again.

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Since we had 2 impulses and EW is almost complete, this is when Elliot Wave theory comes in handy.

So, we shall look at fibo's, this could be 5 top, or 5 could go higher to 10300 or a bit more (didn't calculate exact value the maximum is around 10500).

If indeed we started ABC, then the fibo's are such:
How magical, 0.618 is on this support where I have my biggest buys waiting for 2 weeks. (Evil plan).

I really do'nt think we go below that before June. SO not on that retrace, buuuuut BTC is so slow and going slower and slower... maybe it takes 1 month to complete that small move since bagHODLers hold tight because they saw a big green candle & sharp move up... every time ...

Speculation let's see if that happens :p (Has 0 impact on the way I trade):

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Oh ye btw, (first) ABC USUALLY end around the lows of wave 4.
Here that's above 0.382 so above 8600.
Closing short hedge here, but not going long I only go long on support at 7700-8300 zone.

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Ok so listen carefully, according to chats and twitters that act smart:

* TA is useless and facts don't matter.
* When the number of short positions skyrocketed it meant we are going up.
Now that the shorts are at all time low and longs are 50% more, it doesn't mean we go down.
* When CBOE and CME opened futures it caused BTC to go up near 100% no other reason. Hence Goldman Sachs news will make Bitcoin double now! BUT when Bitcoin crashed from 19800 to 10700 in 5 days starting the very second CME futures opened, it had no correlation, the reason was something else. So GS won't crash the price it will just keep going up.

These kind of affirmations get the most love...
Make sure to use BS facts but only when they go in your direction.

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I think this 2014 count is legit...

If we go to 11k we're going to need an ABC and then a new 12345.
BTC going down slowly and consolidating 1 week at a time...
There's just not enough time to get there.
Idk if the whales will get to dump up there...
I think I better start a swing trade on 10300 if I'm lucky enough to get a short entry there.

If we get close to 9500 on da first days of Junes I guess I'll short there...

99% people are bullish now right? Eveeery one except me and a few chosen ones rofl.
The bears that wouldn't change their mind are now giving up (probably some of them just want to be left alone tbh) and bagHODLers are celebrating and being arrogant.
Exhuberant at its peak.

I wonder what happens historically when exhuberance hits its peak? :}

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Bagholder quote of the day:

Source:
twitter.com/elonmusk/status/992388944774938626

I don't know if a bottom of Tesla has been reached, what I know for sure is:
- He kept saying his bags would explode for the past weeks and it kept going down
- He keeps shilling his company saying his model 3 has so much success the stock is going to go parabolic and all his investors are gunna get rich

What I know is it won't go parabolic because of some car and this won't be the short burn of the century.

He probably thinks his bags will make him so rich he'll have the money to start a colony on mars rofl.

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I feel like I heard this one before...

"As an investor and shareholder, I don't need any discussion, your vision and innovation and hard work to transition us to a sustainable future is enough to make me buy even more #TSLA stocks whenever the evil and misguided Wallstreet cabal pushes the price down!
We will prevail!"

Think, think, oh right it's the same sentence I heard 100 million times.
"Wall street big meany tries to keep us down but we are the future this is a revolution".
Source: twitter.com/vinylzone/status/992362817985671175

Gosh Elon Musk Twitter and Tesla forum's (officuial + TMC) is a cesspool of bagholders telling each other motivational quotes...

"My forecast is - it will go down and then it will go up and up and up and up and up."
Elon Musk answer: "Exactly"

If I shorted that I'd spam them with screenshots of my profits.

Ok so let's sum up:
- 10 years ago gold was a revolution that would change economics and rid us of inflation and teach Wall Street a lesson.
- Tesla is a visonary revolution that will change the world and guide 7 billion people to a sustainable future and well all gunna get rich and beat the misguided Wall Street bullies.
- Bitcoin is a revolution that will rid us of the banks and "cabal" cruel Wall Street, Wall Street will disappear as individuals now rule the world from their basement thanks to their decentralised crypto.
- Etc... I could make a long long list... maybe later.

So for 100 years "This is a new paradigm and the bullies at wall street want to bring us down but we'll show 'em who's boss and we'll change the face of the world" <<=== Say greedy investors that only want to make money.

And during that time what has happened? These fools have lost EVERY SINGLE TIME. And Wall Street has kept making money of these idiots...

How many times can the same repeat itself?
The exact same sentences, every time...It's just so unreal...

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Oooh ye "evil" wallstreet I forgot that one rofl.

"Evil" short sellers too. Wtf...

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For some reason its hard to find info's on why the FED aim for 2% inflation every year.
Well I got that for ya:

Where it all began... 1995 Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Quotes by Janet Yellen, Governor of the Federal Reserve System (part of the board of governors)
"Each percentage point reduction in inflation costs
on the order of 4.4 percent of gross domestic product, which is about
$300 billion, and entails about 2.2 percentage-point-years of
unemployment in excess of the natural rate."

"Fortunately, the goals of price stability and output
stability are often in harmony, but when the goals conflict and it
comes to calling for tough trade-offs, to me, a wise and humane policy
is occasionally to let inflation rise even when inflation is running
above target."

federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19950201meeting.pdf

And what the federal reserve says:

For price stability and maximum employment.
federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm

So basically it's the most humane thing to do.

Why is deflation so bad for the economy and poor people (yes they are the ones that suffer most), explained here on investopedia:
investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/030915/why-deflation-bad-economy.asp

Hey want to know what was the last time the USA experienced deflation? During the great depression XD Soooo people want another great depression? Sounds amazing. For guys like me it's an opportunity to make lots of money on the back of the public, profiting from their misery. Go ahead I don't mind.

Same stuff as usual, do something to help people, they complain how the big meanies are playing and trying to steal their money.
I don't know why these administrations try so hard to help...

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Most unlucky trader in the world, still manage to make money.

May ending in a doji calling it now.
Then July big fall, then bounce, and then a slow decline.
Get your money out after that, trading crypto will be over.
I'll keep a tiny amount "just in case", maybe.

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I swear in my own life Bitcoin cannot continue this parabolic move.
I will cut my hands on stream and put knifes in my eyes if Bitcoin keeps this parabolic rise without god himself intervening.

Know why? It can't go back in time....
Lmao

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Oh btw, Bitcoin ended it's 2017 parabolic rise when it had to go back in time to continue it (and it also stopped going up).

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So close... but not getting there. BTC and its suspense.

Latest bagholder quote, by Elon Musk:
"Looks like sooner than expected. The sheer magnitude of short carnage will be unreal. If you’re short, I suggest tiptoeing quietly to the exit …"
I get it sir shiller shorters will get obliterated and will strongly regret it and they better reconsider, you've been saying that for 4 months now.

Advice: be careful you don't get addicted to crypto like most people.

Thought I was free when I lost my addiction to playing league of legends.
Now got an addiction to looking at charts and making fun of people addicted to cryptocurrencies... So I'm no better just another addict.
Still better than an addiction to smoking/drinking/porn/food.

Going to try to go back to an addiction to bodybuiling but with a bit of trading too.
Best addictions, constructive addictions.

I haven't played video games in months, I see Syberia 3 was released last year, and then I see the reviews are terrible, why oh why.

Money to buy every single game but none is interesting.
People that want to get rich to be lazy, what do they plan on doing with their time? Get bored to death? It's not as fun as it sounds better believe me...

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Every time BTC went past 10000, got to dump that somewhere I'll find it.

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Hasn't gone anywhere yet...

Maybe now that crypto is so big and mainstream it won't do anything during the week end as it's waiting on SPX to come back?

So if in 2 weeks BTC has neither:
- went above 10000
- went below 8000
- went to ~ 8000 and bounced fast

I'm getting at least 2/3 of my money out of crypto and I recommend every trader do the same. There's just way more opportunities elsewhere.

Some stock or major forex pair or gold or other commodity running into resistance or support levels on a daily.
Bitcoin just sitting there weeks at a time and with it all of crypto.

For real traders it's not interesting, and even for gamblers it's not interesting as they have to wait so long to get their dose of excitement.
Scalpers have better opportunities elsewhere AND NO LAG "sorry the exchange is overloaded".

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What the hell?

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I was tired of filling excel files and doing calculations and estimates for EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD and GOLD (titan task!) so I took a look at popular crypto ideas.

No one bothers to look at the past...

All time most popular ideas for BTC:

Bitcoin USD Buy-in/Re-buy Levels (End of Correctoin + Altcoins)

BitcoinUSD (BTCUSD) @ BitFinex - The Next Move

The One Coin to Rule Them All, Chapter I

RAW AND NASTY! BEAR MAGIC IS BACK!!! BITCOIN! (BTC)

Go Ahead! Take Money From The Lions Mouth! BITCOIN! (BTC)

Aftert that they ARE a few (1 out of 10 more like) good ones, and some educative posts too, but I think this is enough.

In the top 200 I managed to find an idea from 2014, it's actualy right! He thought it would go down way faster thought, but it was a slow slow death.

$BTCUSD: 3-in-One | $BTC #BTCe #Bitfinex #Bitstamp #bitcoin

2014 idea between top 200 and 350:

Bear Brass Bare-Knucle Brigade Pummel Bulls $BTC #bitcoin #Forex

Bitcoin Forecast: The One and Only Forecast

After 350 most popular ideas from 2018 & 2017 I managed to find some from 2015 (& 2015).
Late 2015 and 2016 is dead, absolutely no interest. That was the point of maximum financial opportunity.
From 2014- early 2015 ;)

$BTCUSD #bitstamp Stomped, Mulls Decline | #bitcoin $BTC #forex

BTCUSD - STILL REMAINS IN OVERALL BEARISH CYCLE - (UPDATE)

Note: At least 95% of top 100 popular Bitcoin ideas are from 2018... ;)
There are a few from late 2017 and 0 from 2015-2016.

Bonus: Tron, second most popular idea all time for crypto:

******* Conclusions *******
So what can we make of all this?

1/ The most popular ideas are almost all wrong.
2/ The top 5 ideas are totally wrong saying we go up when we are at the very top or calling for 0 when we are at the very bottom.
3/ It started in 2017 and in 2018 crypto currencies became insanely popular. There are no new buyers, so my guess is the popularity comes from people that joined in 2017. Ran to buy and then start doing research. Someone I know irl admitted he fell for it, but now after losing a few grans he's making money trading. I started with a loss too, I went long at the worst possible time, right before the biggest flash crash Bitcoin has ever had (and it was after a large dip). Made it all back and way more. So unlucky...
4/ 95% of the time When the most popular ideas say we are at the bottom that's when we go down and we are far from it. When the most popular ideas call for new lows and say we're in a sucker rally, that is when a bull market starts.

You know what you have to do...

These are undeniable FACTS.
You can check BTC most popular ideas on TradingView yourself.

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What an exciting week end!

If this was it and wave 5 is over I look at the 2 lower boxes, otherwise BTC goes up and I short it.
Right now the price bounced off 0.382 of the smaller move, and we can see looking at the large moves the lows fit perfectly with fibo level's.

If it goes down to 0.382 larger move (8600$) I close my little hedge short and there's probably a little bounce, I'll cash out (short with margin 0) and go long only if we reach 0.5-0.618 fib of whole thing (7800-8250).

I spent the whole week end filling excel files looking at EURUSD and USDJPY charts and I looked at gold a bit too. There's way more action there.
Problem with crypto every thing is correlated so you can't look at other opportunities...

Personally I am done with it, I don't mean I just quit, but I will only:
- Open swing trades on ETH & LTC when they are in extreme conditions (oversold or overbought) and near support/resistances (kraken).
- Gamble trade Bitcoin semi-major moves on bitmex with *15 lever, moves like this for example if BTC goes to 10500 I short it for a few days (or hours?) if it goes 8k I long.

I will spend most of my time looking at USD currency pairs, gold probably too and may be a few other commodities if I don't see an opportunity some day.
I'll be able to find a good opportunity there almost every single day.
Unlike crypto...

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TIL there are shill bots...

Just like "5000 ETH giveaway" get hundreds of likes and comments saying how awesome they are, Bitcoin bull posts get thousands of likes and suspicious accounts comment on how right that is...

Why you should only trust the chart...

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Can't even trust the chart most of the buying is exchanges bots pumping the price...
Just do what works and don't trust anything.

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The Tether reserve wallet has grown again...
omniexplorer.info/address/1NTMakcgVwQpMdGxRQnFKyb3G1FAJysSfz

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Fell an stopped but hasn't bounced, 5 - 15 min & 1 HR RSI recovering, looks like it's getting ready for another plunge. Cool, finally something? Or it's just pretending to do something...?

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Seing as it hasn't bounced off 0.5 we can guestimate this is

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a bigger correction and we will go lower.
If we go below 0.618 (9150) we go to 9000$ which might not hold will have to see, and then to 0.382 of whole move (8650).

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Someone posted this, we might have a new resistance where to short if we go up again.

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RSI recovered, could be getting ready for another dip.

On the daily, still an uptrend thought.

When this thing goes down all the Bitcoin bagHODLers that are calling
for new highs and saying Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are old idiots
will all have "bought at the bottom sold at the top".
And they'll find random excuses and minimize their ridicule.
Right now they spend their time cheering and preparing what
they'll say and how victorious they'll act when Bitcoin goes
to 500k and is used by every one on the planet as they know
will happen. So lame.

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Thought I had some Bytecoin to dump on monkeys but I can't find them :'(
Maybe they're on my Poloniex account for which I lost the F2A... accident but a save might be somwhere. W/e.

I bought a tiny bit of every 0.0 something shitcoin when they were down.
Maybe I forgot to buy this one? Why oh why? :(

Idk if I posted this but a couple of months ago it was a good idea to get terrible worthless crap priced a few cents because noobs love that and they can easilly get pumped 200% like what happened now.

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Buying 1 BTC priced $1000 the 01 01 '17 versus making 2.5% a week since that date versus 5% a week versus 10% a week.

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Where are all the people that bought the dip at 9500 and said that was the bottom and it was going to 11k next?

It's like a ghost town, wuhuuu where are youuuu?

Every one is so silent all of a sudden.

I guess they all sold right before it went down, right? :}

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I found out what would happen when we go down this summer.

All the plagues of humanity, the cancer that affects the world, that are the Bitcoin shillers, the past month they've been telling every one to buy, how right they were and making fun of Warren Buffet Bill Gates etc, they've been celebrating and saying they're the best and insulting anyone short.

You know what is going to happen? Of course they'll be silent, but if you give them the treatment they gave to every one they're going to say you should focus on yourself not others and call you childish :D

Hope these monkeys end up like Lord Ashdrake :)

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Time for some maths.

First of all let's humor the HODLers and say Bitcoin IS going to 1 million usd.

Then set the facts.
Every market every large stock when it got that overbought (+2000% in a year? rofl that never even happened not that much) just went down into accumulation zone always hundred of times every single time. The more people (from the public) are in the more likely it is to happen. 1929 2000 2008 etc.
So there's a very high probability Bitcoin will do the same. At least 99% right? ALWAYS happens. Even in 2014 when BTC was derided and the public wasn't in it did it. Let's be favorable to the bulls and say the probability is 80% (would mean out of 100 times it happens 80 which is not true it's way more than this).
If Bitcoin goes to 1 million it will have to pass 20k.

Now that this has been set it means:
A/ We consider Bitcoin IS going to go to 1 million usd.
B/ The probability of going straight up from here has been set at 20% to have some kind of "upper limit".
C/ If we go up the buy will be at 20000.

So, if we go up from here we will have missed our cheap buy and will end up buying at $20000, going past 20k would mean we go up up up so we buy (target 1 million). (Would actually reject 20000 first before going past it).
The other choice is buying at 9000$ hence getting more more than twice as many BTC but with a 20% chance.

1 million/20000 = 50 times ROI
1 MM / 9000 = 111 times ROI.

Now, that has to be weighted by the probability.

Buying at $9000 = 111 * 0.2 = 22.2
Buying at $20000 = 50 * 0.8 = 40

Conclusion: Buying at 9000 sucks!

It's also possible to scale, not buy all at once.

Of course a delusional bull would say "100% we go to 1 million straight up now I saw a gree candle on the 30 minutes chart".

Note

From Trolly McTrollface (that's his name):

"Do Bitcoin maximalists know fractional reserve banking precedes the Fed & was in practice, unregulated, during the gold standard? A limited supply of money made bank runs &failures much more frequent, without addressing any of the problems cryptoclown experts claim it will solve."

Tbh Bitcoin maximalists don't even care about any of that, we all know they only care about the price going up lol.

Note

How does one take a break from crypto where anywhere I whatever I do outisde inside I get messages like this

"Bitcoin is money without borders.
Start with as little as €1. Luno makes it safe, easy and secure. Sign up with Luno France today."

Anywhere all the time.

So the only way for me to stop getting harassed with crypto is go in the woods?

Note

Thanks to Facebook spying on every one, we now know there's around 14 million online traders in the world. (And they all suck and have money to give me :>)

brokernotes.co/modern-trader/

Note

I'd like to have a thought for the brave men and women living on cardboards shaking tins.
They never gave up, never surrendered.
Till they got margin called.
Quitting in for loser!

These motivational quotes and the amount of cheering they get makes me laugh so hard I should start a one man show make fun of them.
No wonder there's so many satires/humoristic people every where.
Soooo much material in this day and age.

Half the world population is fat 13% is obese (counting starving africans in the stats probably 30% taking only murica europe Australia).
They never surrender never give up never back down quitting is for losers, yet they can't resist a frikking piece of cake :'D

:}

Note

Step 1 - Get tired of crypto bulltards
Step 2 - Let's go check something else, maybe learn something
Step 3 - Wow Oil is pretty big biggest commodity by far, let's check it out
Step 4 - Full of Bulltards getting boners because there's green candles
Step 5 - ...

What a chart represents is totally irrelevant. I could just rename BTCUSD #A etc.
Trade it just the same.

The only problem is unless I use some brokers I don't want to use I have to have separate accounts for crypto and for the rest.

Lots of brokers have been wanting to add crypto for years but they're facing regulations or idk what.
Just make it happen!

Note

If we could just go lower so I close my short and take a few percents on the bounce on my bitmex account, would be great.
Should bounce a few hundreds.

Note

Might be going up.
Target 9550.
Not trading this.

Maybe a lower top on the daily, or maybe 10-11k thx for giving me a short entry.

Going to love shorting ETH :)

Note

I found some stats (some more) on Bitcoin investors
fortune.com/2018/01/24/young-men-buying-bitcoin/
This for example:
"Those few Bitcoin investors are of a fairly consistent demographic. An overwhelming 71 percent of them are male. The majority — 58 percent — are young, between the ages of 18 and 34 years old. And unlike the broader U.S. population, nearly half of them are minorities."

books.google.fr/books?id=XaiF6MeXFmQC&pg=PA83&lpg=PA83&dq=unemployed+average+IQ&source=bl&ots=FXRkF3pGhv&sig=lSHBR6JwtG54MFytzoEz6YETxxU&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjhluLp0vjaAhUF7RQKHQW_Dl4Q6AEIXzAG
(Stats about mean IQ with links)

+ plenty of other stats easy to find on the internet.

So, and this can be done for anything on which we have stats (thanks for spying on people facebook):
- More than 50% of Bitcoin investors are young unemployed and hoping to get rich.
- Nearly half are minorities in the US.
- These groups have an average IQ between 80 and 90 depending on the research (and IQ average is between 100 and 105)
- The average IQ without these groups is still around the same, maybe half a point difference.
- Women IQ's are much centered around - you guessed it - the center. They don't change the result.

So, taking 85 for the average IQ of the unemployed & 100 for the rest with 100 as average (80/90 vs 100/105), we get, AT BEST:
0.5 * 85 + 0.5 * 100 = 92.5
The average IQ of Bitcoin investors CANNOT be higher than 92.5 with 99% certainty.

Add to that the following facts:
* A large number of minors are interested in Bitcoin (obviously lower IQ than adults)
* People that fall for ponzi's ARE going to fall for Bitcoin, regardless of whether it is a scam or not.
* IQ drops when you are in a group ==> psychcentral.com/news/2012/01/24/iq-drops-when-youre-in-a-group/34036.html

With these facts I could even prove that the average IQ of a Bitcoin enthusiast investor is close to that of a monkey (chimp sitting at ~50).

(*v*)/<3 Blows a kiss and flies away (*v*)/<3

Note

As I was saying... A bunch of idiots.
cnbc.com/amp/2018/05/09/astrology-is-telling-ex-nfl-star-ricky-williams-to-invest-in-bitcoin.html

I know theres some youtubers and athletes that lost money in crypto, I wonder if its people like them that get 10MM liquidated in mex.
Clearly its not trading legends or mathematical masterminds...

Note

Creating new trading accounts outside of crypto and transfering money is so fast now that no one is interested XD
Probably because every one is so obssessed with crypto.

I'm still waiting for the price to go up to 9600 come on you can do it rich dumb guys!
Do I have to wait for Uranus to be perfectly aligned with Taurus for my short orders to enter Uranus?

Note

You should love this:

Zooming it:

Guess what happened? :D

Cringe.

A bagHODLer quote I love "What I love about Bitcoin is no one can take them from me". No one will take you your precious bags I promise :D
Noooo one will want to buy them either ;)

Note

Yeee...No.

- From twitter user twitter.com/BagholderQuotes compiling these so I don't have to go hunt all over the internet.

(Maybe he'll make money off a bounce).
pbs.twimg.com/media/DcyQRzQU0AUhyiA.jpg:large

"Dear Investors those who are serious to give a try and fight against this company Helios & Matheson to get back their hard earned money....they can seriously write down their names,contact number and email id's....we all can unite and go to media first and then go for judicial steps....but it can be done collectively and with the efforts of all...."
facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1285858098149801&id=869495026452779

Good luck :'D

The news on this were pretty bad. Been seing bagholder posts for over a month now :p
Now they really got slapped and really lost every thing (95% +)
finance.yahoo.com/news/owner-moviepass-crashing-saying-burns-171200909.html

Note

Ok so the twitter pro's are making 20% a day according to what they're saying, perma posting their wins in crypto.
Since they've been around for more than a few months, easy 1 year usually, we can calculate how rich they are.

1.2^365 = 79644319771494430769549456384,853 ==>7964431977149443076954945638485,3 % ROI
Not bad! pure pro's.

Let's say every day isn't that awesome and they only make 5% a day, less than what they claim:
1.05^365 = 54211841,577

So if they started with $1000 they're now at 54 billion dollar. Not bad!

Wow I'm impressed, all these pro's shitcoin pumps chaser are among the richest in the world.

In a few months we will get alot of Lord Ashdrake bis: just disappear without leaving a trace :)
They'll probably ask their followers for money to help them out in PM :)

I'm going to gloat so hard when they're shaking tins in the street :}

Note

This *might* go down very fast.
To avoid missing because of exchange lag make sure to prepare your orders boys!
Let's rek some delusional noobs.

Btw, 50% of new gym members quit within the first 6 month *wink* if you know what that mean *wink wink*
zenplanner.com/community-and-retention-at-gyms/
"This time it's different" Ye let me sit right here and see how different "this time" will be.

Note

The bounce was minimal, less than 5%. bad.
But if we keep going down there should be a significant bounce even if BTC doesn't resume an uptrend.
It has to bounce before 7700$ very high probability.
Probably I just miss out for now lol, just waiting on it to be really down.

Note

Fun fact of the day: 10% americans do not have a bank account.
And that's the lowest it has ever been.

Other fun fact: digital wallets and prepaid debit cards have been around longer than magical internet worthless virtual money, work better, and no one ever called them the revolution of not needing a bank anymore.

How much people praise the fundamentals of Bitcoin is directly correlated on its last price move.

Note

Getting pretty low but I don't want to close my mini short yet, could it just go swing low 8650 real quick then bounce maybe 5-7%?

Note

Should get a little bounce, oversold + bullish div.

Note

May 4rth I see MPC posted he is long so I increased my short position.
Fast forward 7 days I am very happy I listened to his advice again ^^
Thank youuuu Magic you trully are a legend!

Note

Testing the magical line. Shhhh don't tell anyone it's a secret!

Note

Closed me short. Another win. I don't count it as a trade as it was small and more of a hedge with a little bonus. 130% of my account hedge so hedge +30%.

Getting ready to go long.

Trade active

This is what I want to see :D

Started going long but 95% of my orders are at 7700-8200.

Note

Just ended up at buying at market "the system is currenctly overloaded" I HATE CRYPTO AAAAAAH.

These crooked exchanges and it's not entirely their fault, MILLIONS of people are trading crypto MILLIONS.

They're like gaz sellers, Oil barrel price goes down, price stays the same for 6 months at the pump station.

8540$ buy rather than 8515 ... whatever started tiny.

Note

Seeing 3 levels before the abyss

Note

4HR RSI's already at a record low.
If we fall to 7800 then bounce it would be a 20% flush, nothing special for BTC.
Going to 7000 or below would be so much. Pretty unlikely imo.
I'm so cashing out once it bounces a few percent not risking it.
Still got 90-95% or my orders in the 7700-8300 region don't want to risk buying higher than that.

Note

I might have missed something, but it the past 4 years I haven't found a drop of more than 25% and 4HR RSI wasn't oversold like now.

So, we're at extreme oversold levels and already down 16%.
Getting a -25% would bring BTC down to 7500$

Ok so if this time BTC has the biggest dip of its entire history with such an oversold RSI and with supports, it just keeps falling, there's something wrong and it's just bad luck.
Odds of bouncing before 7000$ are super super high. Not risking too big, but going big enough.

MtGox has had worse but... They admitted they lost all Bitcoins so...45% rofl ye I get liquidated if that happens.

Back when Bitcoin was really small:

Market cap was around a billion.
coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Note

Regarding the 4HR RSI, it's not the lowest ever right, but it's in the low zone.
Lowest Bitcoin ever went apart from major capitulations.
If pricve keeps going down, it's going to reach levels not seen in years.

Btw the lowest I could find going back a few years was during last bear market capitulations. Yet another way to confirm it.

If you braindead buy when RSI is super low just like me, can't miss it :p
I got alerts on extreme RSI's on Germany USA France HGK etc indices XD
Got alerts on half a dozen commodities 4HR.
All these things that are secondary and I don't trade often, I set alerts on them and go long/short when the RSI is extreme :p EZ.
I only need to watch EURUSD USDJPY Bitcoin Oil Gold and all the rest (about 25) got alerts on them. I look at ETH & LTC if BTC is at an extreme level only.
Recommend that tactic +++
Trading View making it easy for us :p

Note

Watch out for traders that open long positions on "the dip".
Exchanges are going to want to liquidate & get that tasty money.

Note

(Not from me):
Open Source Gold: Bitcoin
Open Source Contracts: Ethereum
Open Source Arrogance: IOTA
Open Source Ego: Bcash
Open Source Revenge: Cardano
Open Source Clone: NEO
Open Source Confusion: XRP
Open Source Darkness: EOS
Open Source Pump: Tron
Open Source Privacy: Monero

<3

Note

Closed half long.

Probably goes further than this, but can't tell how far, I probably close rest at 0.5 fib.

Note

Some info from CME futures trading volume (for the month of June).
(cmegroup.com/trading/)

Thursday the 10th:
Oil = 750k futures, or > 50 billion usd (I think this is 10 times what is "really" traded daily I mean actual buying of oil to refine it and sell it to car drivers that stuff)
Gold = 375k futures, nearly 50 billion usd

Bitcoin = 3k futures (5 BTC / contract, BTC futures for May are the biggest ones traded), or ~ 125 million usd. Copper at 7 billion.

Futures are not just for traders but also industries that use them to hedge/ limit their risk (example farmer makes money with short future if there's a drought and his harvest is bad). I do not know what % they represent and what % speculators represent. But since BTC has no value we can assume only speculators trade it.

I don't know if this means crypto is small or not, crypto still gets traded more than stocks on the NYSE, so can't really tell :/
Futures trading matter more to traders looking to profit from the volatility, 0 impact on an investment perspective.
I don't think Bitcoin at $10 would matter really.
If it got that low thought, just open long contracts for 10 billion, then use a few million to pump the price, profit!
So it will have some correlation if price gets too extreme.

What I know for sure thought is Oil is super volatile, and has gigantic volume (the total traded in a day for every months not just next one is 100 billion or more),
there has to be so much money to be made there...

Note

Good thing I cashed out half my little long :D
If we go down now, there's a pretty good chance we bounce on 0.618 fibo, I can set bigger orders there, all spread out around that level.

Apparently for 15000 contracts on bitmex, 11 million bitcoins are required as margin. Interesting.
"System is overloaded" "System is overloaded" "System is overloaded" "System is overloaded" "System is overloaded" "System is overloaded"

Note

Cool Tom Hall published a short idea for 8900 (coinbase) that's where I close my long - what's left of it - and hedge my account with a short.
Happens tomorrow I hope, want this to move faaaast!

Trade closed: target reached

I don't really know where it's going next right now, but I closed at 8800 and hedged 55% of my bmex acc. If BTC goes to 8950 I hedge entirely.
I think I won't short unless it goes 11k, and won't long unless 8000.

We'll see.

MrRenev

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by MrRenev

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