Bitcoin Elliott Waves & Where We Are Going
After my predicted short term pullback (see related idea) took place Bitcoin failed to bounce off the the uptrend lines that were present at the time. As you can see on the chart Bitcoin has now broken another uptrend line, which shows that the correction will be heavier than previously thought.
Without spreading FUD - this is an analysis - we have to consider that this move might be the start of a new corrective Elliott Wave. My main issue with Elliott Waves is that it is difficult to count the waves correctly. So at times people might mistake a wave 5 for a wave 3. This is also true for this situation here: Some people think we are coming out of a wave 3 and seeing a wave 4 with this correction. A strong hint that we might be just coming out of a wave 5 though is the last analysis from Goldman Sachs which spoke about a wave 5 all the way to just below $5000.
On this chart we can see where the next possible reversal zone lies: Bitcoin might find support and reverse between the ~$3600 support line and the 0.382 Fibonacci level. If Bitcoin reverses there it will be a positive sign that we might well be in a wave 4, which would then reverse into a strong upwards movement. But should Bitcoin break the ~$3600 support line we will have a strong sign that wave 5 ended with Bitcoin's move to ~$5000 - meaning that we would be in a strong A-B-C pattern right now, which could send Bitcoin as low as $2400 - $2200.
For a comparison of the Bitcoin chart with Elliott Waves and the A-B-C pattern see this:
Image
Conclusion: Bitcoin is in free fall. Sit and watch for the possible reversal zones. If it doesn't reverse before ~$3600 we might see very low numbers.
Without spreading FUD - this is an analysis - we have to consider that this move might be the start of a new corrective Elliott Wave. My main issue with Elliott Waves is that it is difficult to count the waves correctly. So at times people might mistake a wave 5 for a wave 3. This is also true for this situation here: Some people think we are coming out of a wave 3 and seeing a wave 4 with this correction. A strong hint that we might be just coming out of a wave 5 though is the last analysis from Goldman Sachs which spoke about a wave 5 all the way to just below $5000.
On this chart we can see where the next possible reversal zone lies: Bitcoin might find support and reverse between the ~$3600 support line and the 0.382 Fibonacci level. If Bitcoin reverses there it will be a positive sign that we might well be in a wave 4, which would then reverse into a strong upwards movement. But should Bitcoin break the ~$3600 support line we will have a strong sign that wave 5 ended with Bitcoin's move to ~$5000 - meaning that we would be in a strong A-B-C pattern right now, which could send Bitcoin as low as $2400 - $2200.
For a comparison of the Bitcoin chart with Elliott Waves and the A-B-C pattern see this:
Image
Conclusion: Bitcoin is in free fall. Sit and watch for the possible reversal zones. If it doesn't reverse before ~$3600 we might see very low numbers.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.