Current Bitcoin narratives

Updated

Good:

It's still bitcoin. 1 BTC = 1 BTC
BTC ETF on-ramp.
Inflation is continuing to be real shit for most countries around the world. Bitcoin was designed as a hedge to inflation.
ETH ETF lends credit to cryptocurrency as a whole.
ETH ETF may have staking rewards in Hong Kong.
USA inflation and employment/pay are trending downward, and the Federal Reserve is considering reducing interest rates in response.
Donald Trump is presenting as a cryptocurrency friendly candidate for USA presidency.

Bad:

Bitcoin mining centralization (due to prohibitive costs and some companies just simply being better) is a growing problem that has not been resolved yet. Censorship is a threat. Mining rewards not yet withdrawn are a warchest waiting to be dumped to protect the mining companies in case of price depreciation instead of appreciation first. Similar to how Luna had a warchest of bitcoin as a reserve, waiting to be dumped to preserve the peg.
Ethereum's inflation has been increasing since the Dencun fork due to reduced fees and L2s taking a share of transactions. Reducing Ethereuem block rewards would reduce inflation or induce deflation for the nodes...that just hold Ether...to make more Ether...because it's...in their interest...to make the network be good...?...still, Ethereum inflation has been significantly lower since PoS.
Mt. Gox is in the news again. Remember when the trustee repeatedly market sold in 2018 and at first nobody believed he would actually do that?

ETH ETF is tomorrow, so being bearish here has a nice and short timeframe for invalidation. My 1 month bias is chop high 50k to mid 60k, with invalidation at 70001. Without invalidation, price should test support under 50k. I don't think expressing a bearish bias makes sense in ETH or SOL due to ETH having an ETF and SOL having a casino. With invalidation, meme coin holdings should cover any bullish scenario...

Further reading:

Spot bitcoin ETF net flow: theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/bitcoin-etf/spot-bitcoin-etf-total-net-flow
Eth staking HK ETF: dlnews.com/articles/markets/hong-kong-will-have-ethereum-staking-etf-in-six-months/
USA interest rate cut: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-12/traders-start-to-bet-on-a-supersized-fed-rate-cut-in-september
reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-faces-wave-data-before-deciding-end-of-summer-rate-cut-2024-07-19/
(this one's not a positive) axios.com/2024/04/17/interest-rates-inflation-us-economics
Donald Trump and cryptocurrency: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-21/-almost-everyone-in-crypto-s-a-winner-in-a-second-trump-administration
Bitcoin miner centralization:
cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-btc-mining-centralization
tftc.io/bitcoin-mining-pool-centralization/
decrypt.co/123266/very-lucky-solo-miner-solves-bitcoin-block-for-148k-reward
ocean.xyz/about
Ethereum supply: cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-supply-inflated-for-73-days-straight
China interest rate cuts: reuters.com/markets/asia/china-central-bank-cuts-short-term-policy-rate-2024-07-22/
Mt. Gox: cointelegraph.com/news/effects-of-mt-gox-trustees-400-mln-sale-on-bitcoin-market
cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-bitcoin-repayments-bitstamp-test-transactions

Other minor narratives:

Note

More narratives and news:
Bybit exit scams France
cointelegraph.com/news/bybit-exchange-halts-operations-france

SEC has paused the push for classification of some alt coins as securities
nasdaq.com/articles/sec-drops-battle-crypto-tokens-solana-cardano-hook

Powell Says Fed Could Cut Rates ‘As Soon As’ September Meeting
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-31/fed-officials-hold-rates-steady-signal-first-cut-is-nearer

Market cap went under 2T, historically a bounce point.

Note

This isn't a narrative, I found it interesting. It's not often that two CME gaps at happen at similar prices.

NeoButane

My published indicators: tradingview.com/u/NeoButane/

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