We recently made our 4th Monthly green close. Where will this month take us?!?! BTC has been killing all expectations, when people have been calling shorts since 6k. As much as we all like to think we know BTC like our best friend, we don't. BTC has been recovering after every aggressive selloff. The market absorbed the Binance hack, the Tether Controversy and every other sell off like as if they never happened. But mustn't all happy endings come to an end? More likely than not but nothing is impossible. After all if you look at the chart below, it took us 12 days for BTC to hit 20k after it broke out of it's 8.4k range.
The state of BTC right now just makes you want to clench your butt cheeks. It's like climbing up a very weak ladder wondering how high will you go before the ladder just breaks. If the ladder were to break how far will we fall? Let's look at some evidence. If we don't make a new high above 9100 pretty soon, then BTC will have lost its momentum. Once we lose momentum I think we'll go for our retest of 8k again and when that fails, I expect that's when our real correction begins. I think we can go as low as 6.2k where our 0.5 Fib retracement is and also where we have our PoC on our Volume profile. This is where I believe we can find strong support at. I think BTC will make a wick to 6200 before closing somewhere above for the month of June. With all TA aside, the fundamentals of cryptocurrency as a whole has been very bullish. From new developments to increase adaption to new solutions. With big institutions coming in, I think the world is slowly welcoming BTC as King.
The state of BTC right now just makes you want to clench your butt cheeks. It's like climbing up a very weak ladder wondering how high will you go before the ladder just breaks. If the ladder were to break how far will we fall? Let's look at some evidence. If we don't make a new high above 9100 pretty soon, then BTC will have lost its momentum. Once we lose momentum I think we'll go for our retest of 8k again and when that fails, I expect that's when our real correction begins. I think we can go as low as 6.2k where our 0.5 Fib retracement is and also where we have our PoC on our Volume profile. This is where I believe we can find strong support at. I think BTC will make a wick to 6200 before closing somewhere above for the month of June. With all TA aside, the fundamentals of cryptocurrency as a whole has been very bullish. From new developments to increase adaption to new solutions. With big institutions coming in, I think the world is slowly welcoming BTC as King.
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Looks like BTC could be continuing its uptrend for the short term if we break back above 50 SMA(green line) yet again on our 4hr chart. So far BTC has tested this 50 SMA multiple times(yellow arrow) making new highs(green arrow) each time. Will we make a new High once again?
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Looks like BTC got rejected off our 50 SMA on our 4hr chart. If we go to Daily, things are looking grim.
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Sorry I was mistaken, There was a close below 12 EMA(yellow) once towards the end of April.Note
Now we test 8100 and then 7800.Note
Going to do 4hr to Daily to Monthly Chart. BTC overall is struggling to get back to 8000. On our 4HR chart, the 12 EMA(yellow line) is pressuring the price downward against the 200 SMA(red line). We can also see a 50 SMA(green line) and 100 SMA(orange line) bearish crossover. All of which are signaling loss of momentum for the short term. How far will we go if the 200 SMA fails as support? We'll go over to our daily chart below to find some evidence.
On our daily. we're still getting the same overall signal of a of losing momentum and a downtrend eminent. Here we have the 26EMA (purple) pushing prices downwards. Here I think we can find our next support at 6800 where our .618 Fib Retracement is and as well as our 50 SMA. For the most part I think BTC will find supports along all of our points on the Fib Retracement. After .618, I'm looking for our next support at the .5 Fib retracement. I think this is where we can see the bottom of our short term downtrend and I'll be going to our Monthly chart below to find some evidence that that is indeed the bottom. Most bearish scenarios would be at 5500 then back to 3k. But I highly doubt it will go that far down, but nothing is impossible. I just think it's less likely.
Nothing much has changed on our Monthly given its only 6 days into this post. Everything still remains the same, HVN node on our Volume Profile at 6400. Also near our 12 EMA(yellow line) and .5 of our Fib retracement. I think we can find this area to hold strong support.
MY Conclusion.
We go down to 6200 and maybe come back up to form a Monthly hammer. My other scenario would be a monthly inside bar in a more bearish scenario.
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I posted the wrong Monthly chart for my most recent update.This is the one I meant to post.
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Short term consolidation is about to end on 1HR chart below. Where will BTC go?To the downside we have found resistance on Stoch indicator could signal sell action. There's support at 7800.
Upside action, we have resistance at 8100 where our 200 SMA (red line) resides.
On our 4Hr chart, prices could continue to consolidate between our 50SMA (green line) and 200 SMA (red line). A close below the 200 SMA could lead us towards next support at 6800.
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Testing 200 SMA (redline) 4hr chart at 7700
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If 7700 fails, we'll go back to test 7500. IF that fails we could see 7000 then 6800Note
Looks like we could be trading in a range between 7500 and 8100 for short term before BTC makes next move.
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Or Ascending triangle
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.