Another Heavy drop of BTC to 6k~7k area incoming.
Updated
hi guys, welcome to another analysis of btc.
first, i have to say, i cannot explicit how bearish btc has been, having not testing what it should have.
most of the times, when btc falls down under 200ma daily, it tests 200ma, closes above, tests upper zone to
50ma, now at 9k areas.
however, at the point now where btc has 50/200ma death cross looming, this seems very difficult at the moment.
we have touched the 7700 support at 200ema(2day) for some times now, and it has managed to break above a bit.
however volume of buying at support is coming low, even with the daily bull divergences.
historically, when we have 200/50 ma death cross, which imply heavy drop to accumulation zone.
scenario until next month, more likely mid november we have two scenarios.
1. 8200~8500->8100->8.4~8.5k->7400~7700->8.5~8.7k->6k areas
2. 8200-8500->8100->8.4~8.5k->7.7k->7.7k~8.2k->6k areas.
first and the second scenarios have one difference. which is that it can give a low and go up again until early november. or, it can just get wrecked all at once.
at any scenario, it is pointing downwards. however, i do think that from late october to early november we will see a short alt season, mainly with bitcoin cash(hardfork at nov 15th), so we have to look after that.
so heavy drop can come from mid november, especially when president trump will sign the trade terms with china in apec 16~17th. a minor drop should come before that though.
so now is time where, you have to accumulate shorts from 8250~8320/8.4~8.5k/8.7k in order.
people say it would go up to 9k, but at the moment, i heavily doubt that would happen, the max top could be 8.6~8.7k area that i can imagine of.
the risk vs profit stands on short side. we can sell shorts at at least low 7k area, or even lower in coming days,
or coming month.
when we reach 6k some area, it would be great to trade alt coins as btc would accumulate with small movements.
from there, we have to analyze if this can turn over things and go for the halving run, or not. because, usually
it takes more time then that.
weekly chart, you see macd still retracing. there is no signs of real comeback.
monthly wise, it looks like it will close under the conversion line at 8700. this would drag the price low.
when btc closes above 8700 in monthly, we can think about reversing, but now, all we see is small bounces
and more drop incoming.
so short safe. we will have good times in the future. don't long so much in this region.
of course, short term you can long at 8100 area, looking to sell above 8200/8300. now we have daily baseline resistance at 8250/8300 area which is difficult for trading.
i still have shorts from 8700, and added up 8280. i plan to simply add up when price comes up.
good luck.
first, i have to say, i cannot explicit how bearish btc has been, having not testing what it should have.
most of the times, when btc falls down under 200ma daily, it tests 200ma, closes above, tests upper zone to
50ma, now at 9k areas.
however, at the point now where btc has 50/200ma death cross looming, this seems very difficult at the moment.
we have touched the 7700 support at 200ema(2day) for some times now, and it has managed to break above a bit.
however volume of buying at support is coming low, even with the daily bull divergences.
historically, when we have 200/50 ma death cross, which imply heavy drop to accumulation zone.
scenario until next month, more likely mid november we have two scenarios.
1. 8200~8500->8100->8.4~8.5k->7400~7700->8.5~8.7k->6k areas
2. 8200-8500->8100->8.4~8.5k->7.7k->7.7k~8.2k->6k areas.
first and the second scenarios have one difference. which is that it can give a low and go up again until early november. or, it can just get wrecked all at once.
at any scenario, it is pointing downwards. however, i do think that from late october to early november we will see a short alt season, mainly with bitcoin cash(hardfork at nov 15th), so we have to look after that.
so heavy drop can come from mid november, especially when president trump will sign the trade terms with china in apec 16~17th. a minor drop should come before that though.
so now is time where, you have to accumulate shorts from 8250~8320/8.4~8.5k/8.7k in order.
people say it would go up to 9k, but at the moment, i heavily doubt that would happen, the max top could be 8.6~8.7k area that i can imagine of.
the risk vs profit stands on short side. we can sell shorts at at least low 7k area, or even lower in coming days,
or coming month.
when we reach 6k some area, it would be great to trade alt coins as btc would accumulate with small movements.
from there, we have to analyze if this can turn over things and go for the halving run, or not. because, usually
it takes more time then that.
weekly chart, you see macd still retracing. there is no signs of real comeback.
monthly wise, it looks like it will close under the conversion line at 8700. this would drag the price low.
when btc closes above 8700 in monthly, we can think about reversing, but now, all we see is small bounces
and more drop incoming.
so short safe. we will have good times in the future. don't long so much in this region.
of course, short term you can long at 8100 area, looking to sell above 8200/8300. now we have daily baseline resistance at 8250/8300 area which is difficult for trading.
i still have shorts from 8700, and added up 8280. i plan to simply add up when price comes up.
good luck.
Note
boom. it could not stand 8300. now, it would defend 7800 area for some time, but
i do not know how long. couple of days it can bounce, but more drop very possible now.
Note
shorts from 8700 and 8k area sold 30% at 7480. after little bounce, it would go lower.
wait for lower.
Note
i will update a developed idea of current situation but now it will do this
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