BTC carve your path ... to green pastures or blood bath?
Updated
The two roads people ... the fork in the road. Always decisions in life. Left or right, on or off, go or no go, right or wrong, up or down?
How do you decide when to buy or sell? Do you gamble, listen to others' guidance, or your own TA, identifying possibilities, key decision points and then execute a strategy for min loss/max gain, to improve chance of success?
Let's talk about that latter point, specifically how to plot out the possibilities. READ EVERYTHING CAREFULLY TO END. Contact me if you have questions.
On my chart, I am showing waves within waves. So I'm going to start with the bigger waves first, focus on these lines:
> Bold BLUE - BULLISH SCENARIO - This assumes we had a running flat ABC correction from 20k to 6.425k, and then BTC entered an impulse wave up and it could be heading much higher now (11.7k??)! For those new to trading, an impulse wave UP is a powerful wave, consisting of 3 up portions and 2 down portions (5 waves in total, up-down-up-down-up). So from 6.425k to 9.99k would be wave 1, down to 8.2k would be wave 2 (possibly not complete yet though), and now could be wave 3 (normally the longest of the three up waves ... but sometimes wave 5 is even longer!).
> Bold RED - BEARISH SCENARIO - I call this the Triangle Wave Theory. This assumes we are forming WAVE E of a triangle wave now that will take us down to maybe 6.8k or lower! Again for those learning to trade, a triangle wave consists of 5 waves A, B, C, D and E, and bounce up and down to form a sort of arrow head with the point on the right. Imagine the waves bouncing from the bottom of that arrow head to the top and back, getting shorter and shorter with wave.
OK now, let's put on our magnifying glass and zoom in a bit. Those red and blue waves each are made up of smaller waves. They aren't straight lines. They are either made up of impulse waves (5 waves) or correction waves (3 waves) ... most of the time. There's 2 wave colors I would like you to focus on now ... solid purple and dashed dark yellow.
> purple line basically shows how BTC could build the bigger blue wave. It assumes bitcoin has gone down from 9.99k in an ABC correction (see points A1, B1, C1 - note C1 end not confirmed yet!) to form wave 2 of the bigger blue wave. It assumes wave 2 may now be complete (not 100% confirmed though) and we are in an impulse wave up (5 waves) that will form wave 3 of the bigger blue wave ... exciting!
> dark yellow line. OK so I've shown two variants of this. Let me start with the first variant. It assumes that blip on the purple to B1, is not worth anything, and that we've only now completed wave A (see point A2 - end not confirmed yet!), and are possibly busy in wave B up to potentially B2. Then wave C would form taking us to the bottom of the triangle at around 6.8k/6.9k. There's also a possibility that this wave extends passed the triangle bottom (wave E's often extend). Now for the variant ... sometimes when we switch from a strong bull to strong bear sentiment we can get an impulse up follow by an impulse down (instead of an ABC correction). So this scenario shows just that, the yellow dashed line goes from 9.99k to point 1 (same as A2 - end not confirmed!), point 2 (same as B2), point 3 (same as C2), point 4 (same as yellow impulse 1), but then down to point 5, taking us to a much lower number.
So there you have it, a plan. I've applied EW theory, and show waves ending at key support/resistance levels. We have to watch at every turn to see how the plan unfolds, and modify the strategy each time critical data comes in.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make financial decisions based on this. For educational purposes only.
How do you decide when to buy or sell? Do you gamble, listen to others' guidance, or your own TA, identifying possibilities, key decision points and then execute a strategy for min loss/max gain, to improve chance of success?
Let's talk about that latter point, specifically how to plot out the possibilities. READ EVERYTHING CAREFULLY TO END. Contact me if you have questions.
On my chart, I am showing waves within waves. So I'm going to start with the bigger waves first, focus on these lines:
> Bold BLUE - BULLISH SCENARIO - This assumes we had a running flat ABC correction from 20k to 6.425k, and then BTC entered an impulse wave up and it could be heading much higher now (11.7k??)! For those new to trading, an impulse wave UP is a powerful wave, consisting of 3 up portions and 2 down portions (5 waves in total, up-down-up-down-up). So from 6.425k to 9.99k would be wave 1, down to 8.2k would be wave 2 (possibly not complete yet though), and now could be wave 3 (normally the longest of the three up waves ... but sometimes wave 5 is even longer!).
> Bold RED - BEARISH SCENARIO - I call this the Triangle Wave Theory. This assumes we are forming WAVE E of a triangle wave now that will take us down to maybe 6.8k or lower! Again for those learning to trade, a triangle wave consists of 5 waves A, B, C, D and E, and bounce up and down to form a sort of arrow head with the point on the right. Imagine the waves bouncing from the bottom of that arrow head to the top and back, getting shorter and shorter with wave.
OK now, let's put on our magnifying glass and zoom in a bit. Those red and blue waves each are made up of smaller waves. They aren't straight lines. They are either made up of impulse waves (5 waves) or correction waves (3 waves) ... most of the time. There's 2 wave colors I would like you to focus on now ... solid purple and dashed dark yellow.
> purple line basically shows how BTC could build the bigger blue wave. It assumes bitcoin has gone down from 9.99k in an ABC correction (see points A1, B1, C1 - note C1 end not confirmed yet!) to form wave 2 of the bigger blue wave. It assumes wave 2 may now be complete (not 100% confirmed though) and we are in an impulse wave up (5 waves) that will form wave 3 of the bigger blue wave ... exciting!
> dark yellow line. OK so I've shown two variants of this. Let me start with the first variant. It assumes that blip on the purple to B1, is not worth anything, and that we've only now completed wave A (see point A2 - end not confirmed yet!), and are possibly busy in wave B up to potentially B2. Then wave C would form taking us to the bottom of the triangle at around 6.8k/6.9k. There's also a possibility that this wave extends passed the triangle bottom (wave E's often extend). Now for the variant ... sometimes when we switch from a strong bull to strong bear sentiment we can get an impulse up follow by an impulse down (instead of an ABC correction). So this scenario shows just that, the yellow dashed line goes from 9.99k to point 1 (same as A2 - end not confirmed!), point 2 (same as B2), point 3 (same as C2), point 4 (same as yellow impulse 1), but then down to point 5, taking us to a much lower number.
So there you have it, a plan. I've applied EW theory, and show waves ending at key support/resistance levels. We have to watch at every turn to see how the plan unfolds, and modify the strategy each time critical data comes in.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make financial decisions based on this. For educational purposes only.
Note
Well it looks like that wave up to 8.6k pretty much invalidated the correction up. Not 100% out, but looks more like a double bottom test to me right now. Let's see how this plays out. If you were long, hoping for a break out, set your stops, as there's no guarantees the downtrend is complete. In times like this, I consider what I'm prepared to risk and base my stop on that. It isn't pretty when you get stopped out, and then it shoots up again! So proper stop management is needed too!Note
Everyone, this chart is obviously a long term perspective. For more short term moves I've been following Arpi2018. My TA and opinion is fairly aligned to his, and I suggest you have a look at his current idea!Note
Arpi2018 do you believe the H&S will play out, or is this ABC correction going to win?
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