Picking Bitcoin Bottom - Revision 3
Sometimes boring can actually be right... right???
Lets continue our series on picking the BTC bottom. Now let's get the boring part out of the way! Yes, we have continued with the same chart through all four of our analysis' in this series. But you know what... why change and over complicate something that stands the test of time?
On the 29th June we published our original "Picking the BTC bottom" chart. Funnily enough it still remains as relevant today as it did back in June. We still remain in our green descending channel and we have crept up towards the upper end of this trend (this was predicted in our original analysis). However, do not be fooled we are still in a bear market and until the price action tells us otherwise, we will still hold firm on our predictions of lower prices.
The question remains.... how far down will we go and when will we see this eventuate? Well let's look firstly at the overall market and fundamental issues effecting BTC.
Without referring to every single market known to man... markets are bearish at the moment and nothing has indicated a change eventuating anytime soon. Stocks, commodities.... the lot!! This is not unusual for markets to behave like this during times of increased inflation levels. Without writing a paper on economics (which would bore you to tears) lets state the obvious... US Dollar is STRONG, most markets are WEAK. We referred to this last month. For those of you who don't understand that statement, the most simple way to explain it is that the US Dollar is inversely correlated with most markets. For example BTC is usually priced as BTC/USD. If BTC is priced against the US dollar it is directly effected by the USD price moevements. If USD increases, it puts downward pressure on BTC. If USD decreases, it put upward pressure on BTC. Obviously this is a generalsied statement, there are exceptions where USD and BTC increase/decrease at the same time but this is not one of those times. We do see continued strength for the US Dollar leading into the next couple of months. US Dollar seasonality also backs this state of events.
Now let's look at the charts. The Stoch RSI has topped and shows signs of reversing. It will take a decent pullback for the Stoch RSI to enter bearish zones. Somewhere below 15-14k which tells us that we will get a decent pullback sometime in the near future. This could see BTC price action reaching our first target of 12k. 12K was our first predicted price point for the current BTC pullback.
Something to keep in mind with BTC is seasonality and timeframes. Most BTC pullbacks are around 12-14 months long. We currently sit at just over 10 months which puts us in a pivotal time for BTC's bear market. We are getting close to what we think is the BTC bottom.
12k was our first target... This is a target which is obvious (to us) as it represents a lot of different technical analysis ideas being floated around the crypto space. Do not be surprised if it falls further! BTC has never retraced in an overall bearish market with increased interest rates and inflation. For this reason, we are remaining cautious that we can potentially fall further. 12K-6K was always and is still our range for buying. The lower we go the greater the reward for savvy crypto buyers!
Be sure to refer to our past posts in this series for BTC forecasts. Do not follow the pretenders who preach MOON every time the price increases 5%. We are most definitely Bullish on BTC in the long term, but we are traders and investors who recognise that no matter how bullish a market is long term, we will have bearish seasons.
Remember this quote:
Bullish assets have pullbacks and Bearish assets have increases! Nothing moves up or down in a straight line. Thats the game, lets outsmart the game.
Until next time, trade smart.... Don't be drawn into a market to early.
Lets continue our series on picking the BTC bottom. Now let's get the boring part out of the way! Yes, we have continued with the same chart through all four of our analysis' in this series. But you know what... why change and over complicate something that stands the test of time?
On the 29th June we published our original "Picking the BTC bottom" chart. Funnily enough it still remains as relevant today as it did back in June. We still remain in our green descending channel and we have crept up towards the upper end of this trend (this was predicted in our original analysis). However, do not be fooled we are still in a bear market and until the price action tells us otherwise, we will still hold firm on our predictions of lower prices.
The question remains.... how far down will we go and when will we see this eventuate? Well let's look firstly at the overall market and fundamental issues effecting BTC.
Without referring to every single market known to man... markets are bearish at the moment and nothing has indicated a change eventuating anytime soon. Stocks, commodities.... the lot!! This is not unusual for markets to behave like this during times of increased inflation levels. Without writing a paper on economics (which would bore you to tears) lets state the obvious... US Dollar is STRONG, most markets are WEAK. We referred to this last month. For those of you who don't understand that statement, the most simple way to explain it is that the US Dollar is inversely correlated with most markets. For example BTC is usually priced as BTC/USD. If BTC is priced against the US dollar it is directly effected by the USD price moevements. If USD increases, it puts downward pressure on BTC. If USD decreases, it put upward pressure on BTC. Obviously this is a generalsied statement, there are exceptions where USD and BTC increase/decrease at the same time but this is not one of those times. We do see continued strength for the US Dollar leading into the next couple of months. US Dollar seasonality also backs this state of events.
Now let's look at the charts. The Stoch RSI has topped and shows signs of reversing. It will take a decent pullback for the Stoch RSI to enter bearish zones. Somewhere below 15-14k which tells us that we will get a decent pullback sometime in the near future. This could see BTC price action reaching our first target of 12k. 12K was our first predicted price point for the current BTC pullback.
Something to keep in mind with BTC is seasonality and timeframes. Most BTC pullbacks are around 12-14 months long. We currently sit at just over 10 months which puts us in a pivotal time for BTC's bear market. We are getting close to what we think is the BTC bottom.
12k was our first target... This is a target which is obvious (to us) as it represents a lot of different technical analysis ideas being floated around the crypto space. Do not be surprised if it falls further! BTC has never retraced in an overall bearish market with increased interest rates and inflation. For this reason, we are remaining cautious that we can potentially fall further. 12K-6K was always and is still our range for buying. The lower we go the greater the reward for savvy crypto buyers!
Be sure to refer to our past posts in this series for BTC forecasts. Do not follow the pretenders who preach MOON every time the price increases 5%. We are most definitely Bullish on BTC in the long term, but we are traders and investors who recognise that no matter how bullish a market is long term, we will have bearish seasons.
Remember this quote:
Bullish assets have pullbacks and Bearish assets have increases! Nothing moves up or down in a straight line. Thats the game, lets outsmart the game.
Until next time, trade smart.... Don't be drawn into a market to early.
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