Picking Bitcoin Bottom - Revision 2
So Bitcoin... Where are we headed? Are we following the path we've spoken about in our previous posts? (we encourage you to read our previous two posts)
We have been speaking for some time now regarding what we believe is the bottom for BTC. Our forecasts remain unchanged. We still see 6-12k bottom range sometime later this year.
So lets now talk Seasonality and fundamental analysis. Financial markets continue to face headwinds with increasing interest rates and inflation. We align with most forecasts that interest rates will continue to rise with inflation continuing to sit at high levels for the rest of the year. For this reason we see the US Dollar continuing to the upside into the final quarter of 2022. The US Dollar typically gains strength around mid/end October and continues to rise until late November/early December (this is important to note for BTC). We also see further headwinds for most financial markets around the world which will drag BTC down with them. Make no mistake BTC is not independent for all financial markets as some may think. If the FED records 3 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth expect markets to drop significantly including BTC.
So we have seem some strength for BTC over the past month or so which we did predict in our first post. We are still bearish in the medium term however we never go down in a straight line. We are at a decision point at the moment. Do we continue up towards our green trend line sitting around 24-25k or do we retest our recent low of 17k and potentially fall further? In terms of the medium term forecasting of BTC's bottom, the previous question doesn't hold too much weight. We may potentially see continued strength until we meet the 24-25k range however we predict that this will be our short term top before a significant fall later this year. On the other hand if BTC continues to fall from current levels we are closer to our predicted bottom.
Note we mentioned the US Dollar increasing into the final quarter of 2022. We look at seasonality very closely with our trades, especially our medium and long term predictions. Strength in the US Dollar will most definitely put downward pressure on Bitcoin, so we would be doing ourselves an injustice if we did not include the US Dollar in our forecasts. Typically the US Dollar tops sometime in late November/early December and for this reason we see this timeframe as a very strong candidate for the BTC bottom. Interestingly this also coincides with the typical 12 month bear market we see in bitcoin (refer to our first BTC post).
Is 20k BTC a good buying point? Yes! However we believe better buying is around the corner. Don't enter a bear market too early because of FOMO. There is a difference between an aggressive entry and catching a falling knife!
We have been speaking for some time now regarding what we believe is the bottom for BTC. Our forecasts remain unchanged. We still see 6-12k bottom range sometime later this year.
So lets now talk Seasonality and fundamental analysis. Financial markets continue to face headwinds with increasing interest rates and inflation. We align with most forecasts that interest rates will continue to rise with inflation continuing to sit at high levels for the rest of the year. For this reason we see the US Dollar continuing to the upside into the final quarter of 2022. The US Dollar typically gains strength around mid/end October and continues to rise until late November/early December (this is important to note for BTC). We also see further headwinds for most financial markets around the world which will drag BTC down with them. Make no mistake BTC is not independent for all financial markets as some may think. If the FED records 3 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth expect markets to drop significantly including BTC.
So we have seem some strength for BTC over the past month or so which we did predict in our first post. We are still bearish in the medium term however we never go down in a straight line. We are at a decision point at the moment. Do we continue up towards our green trend line sitting around 24-25k or do we retest our recent low of 17k and potentially fall further? In terms of the medium term forecasting of BTC's bottom, the previous question doesn't hold too much weight. We may potentially see continued strength until we meet the 24-25k range however we predict that this will be our short term top before a significant fall later this year. On the other hand if BTC continues to fall from current levels we are closer to our predicted bottom.
Note we mentioned the US Dollar increasing into the final quarter of 2022. We look at seasonality very closely with our trades, especially our medium and long term predictions. Strength in the US Dollar will most definitely put downward pressure on Bitcoin, so we would be doing ourselves an injustice if we did not include the US Dollar in our forecasts. Typically the US Dollar tops sometime in late November/early December and for this reason we see this timeframe as a very strong candidate for the BTC bottom. Interestingly this also coincides with the typical 12 month bear market we see in bitcoin (refer to our first BTC post).
Is 20k BTC a good buying point? Yes! However we believe better buying is around the corner. Don't enter a bear market too early because of FOMO. There is a difference between an aggressive entry and catching a falling knife!
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