Bitcoin Assumptions Gone Wild
Updated
Today's Presidential Executive Order did not mention Bitcoin by name once. Instead it focused on "digital asset technologies" and CBDC's. The White House Talking Points also failed to reference cryptocurrency as as the focus of the order, instead including crypto in the discussion as being outside of regulatory framework and as part of illicit activities.
Bitcoin maxis and crypto evangelists make extreme projections, relying on assumptions as fact. When discussion or critical thought is entertained, an abundance of fallacies (straw man, red herring, slippery slope) and biases (experiential, confirmation, reinforced through echo chambers) get piled on.
Since Bitcoin's inception, the economic environment has been supported by a dovish Federal Reserve and Central Banks, with unfettered money supply driving risk-on speculative investing.
This unsustainable monetary policy has resulted in extreme price spikes and inflation not realized in over 40 years.
Nascent markets lack regulatory frameworks and are more volatile given low market capitalization.
Assumptions including replacing gold as a safe haven store of value as well as a belief that decentralization will succeed in the face of traditional finance and government driven efforts to maintain status quo are rampant.
Financial controls are now being weaponized against Russia for invading Ukraine in a way that has never been seen before. The second and third order effects of Nation States and entities realizing the vulnerability are unfathomable at this point in time.
Power exists not only in the centralized environment, but also in controlling access to decentralized platforms via Internet Service Providers and fiat on/off ramps. Governments have the ability to declare threats to national security as illegal and have ways to attack these threats directly and more importantly indirectly.
When all is said and done, we have gravitated from critical thought and open dialogue to communication via headlines and memes.
At the end of the day, Bitcoin and the broader crypto community will either find a way to coexist and complement existing order or be relegated to a niche that doesn't gain widespread support or use because of difficulties imposed by those seeking to retain centralized control.
Bitcoin maxis and crypto evangelists make extreme projections, relying on assumptions as fact. When discussion or critical thought is entertained, an abundance of fallacies (straw man, red herring, slippery slope) and biases (experiential, confirmation, reinforced through echo chambers) get piled on.
Since Bitcoin's inception, the economic environment has been supported by a dovish Federal Reserve and Central Banks, with unfettered money supply driving risk-on speculative investing.
This unsustainable monetary policy has resulted in extreme price spikes and inflation not realized in over 40 years.
Nascent markets lack regulatory frameworks and are more volatile given low market capitalization.
Assumptions including replacing gold as a safe haven store of value as well as a belief that decentralization will succeed in the face of traditional finance and government driven efforts to maintain status quo are rampant.
Financial controls are now being weaponized against Russia for invading Ukraine in a way that has never been seen before. The second and third order effects of Nation States and entities realizing the vulnerability are unfathomable at this point in time.
Power exists not only in the centralized environment, but also in controlling access to decentralized platforms via Internet Service Providers and fiat on/off ramps. Governments have the ability to declare threats to national security as illegal and have ways to attack these threats directly and more importantly indirectly.
When all is said and done, we have gravitated from critical thought and open dialogue to communication via headlines and memes.
At the end of the day, Bitcoin and the broader crypto community will either find a way to coexist and complement existing order or be relegated to a niche that doesn't gain widespread support or use because of difficulties imposed by those seeking to retain centralized control.
Note
Bitcoin remains within the defined triangle with no breakout or reversal apparent. Bearish continuation has higher probability given PPI releasing today, CPI last week at 7.8% (highest in 40 years), and Federal Reserve FOMC meeting with expected rate hike to be announced as well as increasing likelihood of continued hikes at subsequent meeting this year ranging from 5 to 8 hikes expected.
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