Short

Bitcoin - August 4, 2020 (Bearish)

Updated

Hello everyone,

... back with another update.

=> If you haven't done so, please check the update on yesterday's analysis (I wrote just b4 going to bed).

Okay, let's get right into it!

First of all, in comparison to yesterday's chart, on today's chart I have
- added the Fibonacci retracement, from the top (12,100) to the bottom (10,559.59) of the August 2 dump;
- re-drawn the bear-flag, using the latest candle closes.

Let's have a closer look at the above chart (4H).

We have

- the 11,200 key level (dashed red line);
Note how it acted as resistance (before August 1) and now (seemingly) acts support.

- the bear flag (2 black arrows);
Note that right now, the bottom of the flag lines up with the 11,200 (support) level. The current 4H candle bounced off that level.

- the 21-period (4H) SMA (red curve);
This MA
(a) acted as support during the dump: we flash-crashed through it, but we ultimately closed right on top of it;
(b) acted as resistance, as of the next 4H candle.
Yesterday, at 6pm UTC+2 we BTC attempted an upside break through the 21-period (4H) SMA, but failed.

- the .50 Fibonacci retracement level (+/- 11,330);
Note that
(a) the .50 Fib (perfectly) lined up with the 21-period (4H) SMA, during and right after the dump;
(b) seems to be acting as resistance on the current 4H candle; which is hence squeezed between 11,200 (support) and 11,330 (resistance).
=> These would be the immediate levels to watch!
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

OPINION (Unchanged): BEARISH

ANALYSIS (updated):
-----------------------------
See above

Note

Quick update:

if the price manages to break the 11,200 support, the next support would be around 11,150, at the confluence of the 50-period (4H) SMA and the 0.382 Fib.

GeertVD

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