BitcoinShort
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 189)
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1 - 5 days: < $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Slightly concerned due to btcusdshorts’ and price trading back above 50 MA. / Short ETH:USD at $285.57 & ETH:BTC at 0.04029/ Had order set to add to short at $283.24 that got filled at $264.46. Have never had that type of slippage before it is ruined my average cost basis for my ETH:USD position.
Patterns: Rising wedge inside descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $7,350 | R = $7,386
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back off hanging man, are we getting another squeeze or does it simply need to retest short term EMA?
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +4.55% | 26 = +6.57%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +4.3% | 128 = +1.29% | 200 MA is tracking along trendline/descending triangle
Volume: Volume continuing to fall as price rallies
FIB’s: 0.5 = $7,174 | 0.382 = $7,418 | 0.236 = $7,752
Candlestick analysis: Just took out hanging man
Ichimoku Cloud: Currently trying to re enter daily cloud. Flat top at $7,867 should be strong resistance / good spot for stop. 4h cloud is fully bullish.
TD’ Sequential: G4 on daily. G8 on 2d. G6 on 3d.
Visible Range: High volume nodes from $6,350 to $8,500. Top of volume area on 1m and 3m' lookbacks.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +1.39% | 24h = +1.18% | 1w = +4.23% | 2w = +15.05% | 1m = -1.23%
Bollinger Bands: Hugging top band on daily.
Trendline: Connect 8/22 to 8/30
Daily Trend: bullish
Fractals: DOWN = $6,808 | UP = $8,285
On Balance Volume: Small bear div’ on daily. Small bull div’ on weekly.
ADX: ADX broke through 20 while +DI diverges from -DI in bullish manner.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily, however it is approaching major resistance / overbought zones. Bear div’ on weekly.
RSI (30 setting): W = 50.6 | D = 54.79
Stoch: Overbought on 1d and 2d, plenty of room to go on 3d and 1w.
Summary: Do not let the market lull you to sleep in the calm before the storm.
As we continue to rally on decreasing volume we are approaching major levels of resistance from: VRVP, top end of descending triangle, 200 MA, and top of Bollinger Band. Furthermore we are on a green 8 on the 2 day chart after re setting the sell setup on the 1 day.
There are many reasons to believe that this rally is becoming exhausted and there are not many reasons that I can see which point towards breaking the descending triangle to the upside.
When taking a look at the Bitcoin' Volatility Index it seems very likely that we are in for a major move one way or the other. I firmly believe that it will be a correction to the downside and that is a major reason why I have been calling for < $6,000 over the last couple weeks.
The calm before the storm is often the best time to build a position. Selling the current area of resistance provides a great risk:reward. Shorting alts is a better option as they continue to show more signs of weakness than BTC’.
1 - 5 days: < $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Slightly concerned due to btcusdshorts’ and price trading back above 50 MA. / Short ETH:USD at $285.57 & ETH:BTC at 0.04029/ Had order set to add to short at $283.24 that got filled at $264.46. Have never had that type of slippage before it is ruined my average cost basis for my ETH:USD position.
Patterns: Rising wedge inside descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $7,350 | R = $7,386
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back off hanging man, are we getting another squeeze or does it simply need to retest short term EMA?
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +4.55% | 26 = +6.57%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +4.3% | 128 = +1.29% | 200 MA is tracking along trendline/descending triangle
Volume: Volume continuing to fall as price rallies
FIB’s: 0.5 = $7,174 | 0.382 = $7,418 | 0.236 = $7,752
Candlestick analysis: Just took out hanging man
Ichimoku Cloud: Currently trying to re enter daily cloud. Flat top at $7,867 should be strong resistance / good spot for stop. 4h cloud is fully bullish.
TD’ Sequential: G4 on daily. G8 on 2d. G6 on 3d.
Visible Range: High volume nodes from $6,350 to $8,500. Top of volume area on 1m and 3m' lookbacks.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +1.39% | 24h = +1.18% | 1w = +4.23% | 2w = +15.05% | 1m = -1.23%
Bollinger Bands: Hugging top band on daily.
Trendline: Connect 8/22 to 8/30
Daily Trend: bullish
Fractals: DOWN = $6,808 | UP = $8,285
On Balance Volume: Small bear div’ on daily. Small bull div’ on weekly.
ADX: ADX broke through 20 while +DI diverges from -DI in bullish manner.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily, however it is approaching major resistance / overbought zones. Bear div’ on weekly.
RSI (30 setting): W = 50.6 | D = 54.79
Stoch: Overbought on 1d and 2d, plenty of room to go on 3d and 1w.
Summary: Do not let the market lull you to sleep in the calm before the storm.
As we continue to rally on decreasing volume we are approaching major levels of resistance from: VRVP, top end of descending triangle, 200 MA, and top of Bollinger Band. Furthermore we are on a green 8 on the 2 day chart after re setting the sell setup on the 1 day.
There are many reasons to believe that this rally is becoming exhausted and there are not many reasons that I can see which point towards breaking the descending triangle to the upside.
When taking a look at the Bitcoin' Volatility Index it seems very likely that we are in for a major move one way or the other. I firmly believe that it will be a correction to the downside and that is a major reason why I have been calling for < $6,000 over the last couple weeks.
The calm before the storm is often the best time to build a position. Selling the current area of resistance provides a great risk:reward. Shorting alts is a better option as they continue to show more signs of weakness than BTC’.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.