BTCUSD BTC has been quite the exotic hamster lately.
I want to touch on some details regarding Elliot Wave theory, first.
The first trend down that started March 2024; this was the first wave down of a 3 wave correction. Consisting of 5 waves; After the trend was through, counting the 5 waves were obvious and pretty straight forward.
Afterward there was some sideways movement for about a month until the buying climax (BC) began; and after the climax came the upthrust (UT) with a slightly higher high.
For the sake of Elliot Wave theory I will mark the top of the Buying Climax as the beginning of a 5 wave structure. EW may prove to be useful in this TA but I would imagine that others could argue that the 5 wave structure would begin at the UT.
It's possible that we are on the 3rd wave down and could be making a 4th wave up. But there is a detail in the candle structure that could throw things off a bit. I have that detail marked as "The Trickster"; the high volatile candle with a large bottom wick.
It's possible that the bottom of that wick could mark the 3rd wave down and the top of the candle that comes afterward making the 4th wave top. So this could imply that we are in the middle of a 5th wave down. This is where Elliot wave could be misleading here on the 1W chart.
So with that note, if we do get a wave up from here, It's unlikely (but not impossible) that the MM's would be so generous as to giving us back that 95k value or even something slightly lower during this phase of the correction.
But I believe the most important indicator here is the VRVP (Visual Range Volume Profile).
There is a HVN (High Volume Node) that lines up very close with November 2021 Resistance. And that resistance lines up nicely with the 1:1.13 overshoot ratio @ 69K. So i'll be favoring this area as a likely retracement.
A note regarding a fundamental; Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a recession; Meaning that a recession could be game on. This will have (and already has) a major impact on markets and cryptocurrencies.
This could go 2 ways;
1. Short-term bearishness: Recession fears usually lead to risk-off behavior.
2. Long-term bullishness: If traditional markets struggle and people loose trust in fiat-driven economies, Bitcoin and crypto could be seen as alternatives.
With that Note: Good Luck Traders!
- NOT Financial Advice -
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.