#BTC #bitcoin Halving cycles
cycle 3 (Red trend-line) did diverge again from Cycle 2 (green trend-line) and priced its top considerably lower, which is in line with the Theory of Diminishing returns. Notice that this is a Halving centered approach. Every Cycle is measured before and after its respective Halving. E.g. Cycle 1 (blue trend-line) starts from the start of the data set and ends on Halving 2, i.e. displaying the price action centered around Halving 1. for comparison purposes, I've centered all on Halving 3 .
Probable Cycle Tops and Bottoms
As you see a more accurate estimate of Cycle Tops is measuring the Fib extensions progressively starting from the Jan 09 Genesis Block (0.0 Fib) and Halving 1 (1.0 Fib). The first one is the 1.3 Fib ext, which is around the Top of Cycle 1. Then Cycle 2 peaked around the 2.3 Fib ext and remarkably, Cycle 3 (the current one), made a top around the 3.3 Fib time ext.
They follow a similar progression from the Genesis Block and Halving 1. The Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 1.6 Fib ext after Halving 1 and the Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 2.6 Fib ext after Halving 1. Technically, if the bottom Fib projections work as well as the top ones, the Bottom of Cycle 3 should be around the 3.6 Fib ext, which is around the end of Sep 2022.
Bear Cycles and Rally Phases
A combination of the above, portrays a rough estimate of how the current Bear Cycle will unfold and that is from the 3.3 Fib to the 3.6 Fib (red area). This is respective to all previous Bear Cycles as well. As for the Rally Phases (green area), those start after each Halving and end on the +.3 Fib extension. The Rally Phase of Cycle 3 for example started on Halving 3. The next Halving is on March 2024, so there is still plenty of time before this aggressive, parabolic part of the Bull Cycle starts.
On the other hand, buying at the bottom (as mentioned the next one is projected according to this model to be around Sep 2022), always gives the lowest risk and highest return. Based on this model there isn't but another 4 months left for this opportunity, but as this Cycle turned out to be the smoothest in history . it is possible to see something of a sideways price action for the remainder of the Bear Cycle instead of a 'traditional' capitulation candle.
Probable Cycle Tops and Bottoms
As you see a more accurate estimate of Cycle Tops is measuring the Fib extensions progressively starting from the Jan 09 Genesis Block (0.0 Fib) and Halving 1 (1.0 Fib). The first one is the 1.3 Fib ext, which is around the Top of Cycle 1. Then Cycle 2 peaked around the 2.3 Fib ext and remarkably, Cycle 3 (the current one), made a top around the 3.3 Fib time ext.
They follow a similar progression from the Genesis Block and Halving 1. The Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 1.6 Fib ext after Halving 1 and the Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 2.6 Fib ext after Halving 1. Technically, if the bottom Fib projections work as well as the top ones, the Bottom of Cycle 3 should be around the 3.6 Fib ext, which is around the end of Sep 2022.
Bear Cycles and Rally Phases
A combination of the above, portrays a rough estimate of how the current Bear Cycle will unfold and that is from the 3.3 Fib to the 3.6 Fib (red area). This is respective to all previous Bear Cycles as well. As for the Rally Phases (green area), those start after each Halving and end on the +.3 Fib extension. The Rally Phase of Cycle 3 for example started on Halving 3. The next Halving is on March 2024, so there is still plenty of time before this aggressive, parabolic part of the Bull Cycle starts.
On the other hand, buying at the bottom (as mentioned the next one is projected according to this model to be around Sep 2022), always gives the lowest risk and highest return. Based on this model there isn't but another 4 months left for this opportunity, but as this Cycle turned out to be the smoothest in history . it is possible to see something of a sideways price action for the remainder of the Bear Cycle instead of a 'traditional' capitulation candle.
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