BTCUSD BTC has put on an impressive rally from the November ’22 lows. (+105%)
Now, it looks like it’s about to start turning over again for what I believe is the leg of the bear market.
The Red Median Line set is drawn from major pivots: Dec ’17 high, Dec ’18 Low, and the Nov ’21 High.
I plotted a (yellow) minor fork on ’22-’23 price action to show a potential path to the major (red) Median Line.
Other Factors:
- RSI Bear Div
- Ichimoku Cloud Bearish
- VWAP from the highs holding resistance.
- Strong Dollar
- Continued bearish price moves in equities/risk assets
*Screenshots Below*
I’m expecting a final flush for BTC to approximately $9,000 - $10,000, or a 65% decline from the current price level.
This is also roughly in line with previous cycles.
2015 - 2018 Bull/Bear Cycle: (Bull Market High = $19.8K, Bear Market Low = $3.1K, 84.3% decline)
2018 - 2024 Bull/Bear Cycle: (High = $SWB:69K, Low = X, 84.3% decline)
X = $10.8K = Low
Fat_Fat
Note
Weekly Ichimoku Cloud Note
Weekly Bear DivergenceNote
Anchored VWAP from the ATHNote
9/20/50/200 Weekly EMA Ribbon
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.