Updated

BTC: Aug 2018 Trading Ideas & Plans

Monthly closes above EMA10/EMA12 i.e. 1Yr average, which is a good sign as it also stays flat since early April showing a consolidating rectangle. At present BTC touched Fib0.382=7480 with the strong support zone 7200-6800. If this fib level hodls, 4th corrective wave will be done. Since 1D has entered a neutral zone, it shall consolidate with a reducing volume back to 20K-10K range. The EW-4 (corrective) started with -1.618 (6706.6) extension, which underlies the last high or my late May benchmark level (6838). Because of 1D selling pressure, one may envision 6800. However, 5H (RSI=28) is exerting a buying pressure slowly which means a bounce while 1D RSI=53 remains a constant threat for shorts. I'll prefer to wait and risk a long soon as close as possible to the support https://area.https://invst.ly/8589p

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5H closed with a dragonfly doji limiting the upside move from partly oversold indicators. It is clear that the Fib0.382 is a weak support, although BTC is trading near to it. Volume also reduced to 36K. This gives a short opportunity till 7120. If doji gets rejected, the upside limit is M/DC=7882. We shall test the major support area 7200-6800, where I will plan to go long assuming 5H positive divergence to happen while the daily may fall below neutral zone...Updated chart: invst.ly/85dbj.

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Selling some contracts to take profits as the bounce (max. upside swing M/DC=7882) is likely on shorter time-frame giving further opportunity to short

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@7494

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Post 1H/5H bullish divergence we got estimated ($150-$200) jump on a net reducing volume which is now back to 10K-20K range as indicated yesterday. This also means Fib0.382=7480 held indicating the 4th wave premature completion, which normally goes for deep retracement. With 5H bullish, 1D neutral, 1W bullish; trend strength (weekly= bearish weakness, daily=neutral; 5H=bearish weakness), I expect bullish continuation (wave-5) to re-test 7777 and ultimately 8500 where 1D will post the bearish divergence & a best opportunity to short. For now I do nothing, keep the short open and will flip the trade if 7777 is broken on an increasing volume.

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I initially estimated Fib0.382 to be a weak support since we had a strong rally of 2.618 and the 4th corrective wave, which should had some selling pressure / volume, which isn't the case. Thus, the level holds for now. To enter in 6800-7200 support zone, we need some selling pressure where buyers may try to hold above 6800. Here is an updated chart: invst.ly/85x79, with overall the analysis being the same as posted on this morning.

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Closing my short position here @7360 with profits as it seems fake. Based on 5H I go long now. TP=undetermined. Talk soon

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We only saw a 4% decline through a marginal volume spike (17K - 23K), which isn't significant if its a real sell off. We will meet the strong support 7200-6800, and knowing BTC it may wick down to 6600 if the down leg continues. On daily you don't see much but you do see on 4H/5H charts that it is progressively holding the volume (OBV). Thus, I'll have to follow basics and this time-frame and will accumulate until 6832 (back to my earlier benchmark level). invst.ly/869yn. I'll remain bullish as long as positive RSI divergence holds, which also assumes the 5th impulsive wave to come. Active Trade: Longs (7360-7300); SL/TP = undetermined.

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5H bottoms third time with tempo on daily. I am going to put my last long order here. Once BTC closes below 6450, I wil be out and will reverse the trade since 4th time, BTC will break the 6k support. But for now I have to attempt a https://long...https://invst.ly/86miw..TP=Undetermined.

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Past week forms an Upside Gap Three Method, which mostly gives a bearish impression, however, it is normally a bullish continuation. For BTC, I have found that the gap three methods are mostly weak to hold. But for now I stick to fundamentals and this beautiful setup. With 1D in sell territory, which is a psychological threat for 6K. 5H has tested 6887 (Fib0.618=6850) twice with a Doji and a Hammer setup. I expect some sideways movement for days between 6600-7200 before any decider move. Active trade: Longs; TP=https://undetermined...https://invst.ly/86t0d.

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Here is a weekly chart with the setup (Upside Gap Three Methods)...

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Following my last post, BTC holds above MA50 which is just above 6832 benchmark level. While waiting for 1W Upside Gap Three Methods continuation, 1D posted Aug 5 doji and hidden bullish divergence (ST). My trade remains active as long as BTC holds the support zone: Fib0.618 of past correction (~6200) and 1D MA50 (presently 6939). Again, I am missing the 5th wave (double top/HH) before major corrections. Finally, 4th wave did give us full 0.618 retracement. It shouldn't retrace further otherwise EW fails. I'm expecting an upside limit/test based on 5H and 1D now (7335) with 1W Resistance (7896) just above the past 7777 (becoming historical) resistance. While I remain bullish above 6K, I must say that if BTC fails to break 6k support (4th attempt in 2018; in a most likely scenario, the 4th attempt normally does break) in Aug/Early Sep, the support will get stronger, which means a test of 10https://K....https://invst.ly/87if2.

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Link: invst.ly/87if2

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Another way to look at the volume divergence against the https://price...https://www.tradingview.com/x/CK7CglNw/ ... While the price makes Higher Lows (with Fib0.618 each), OBV nearly bottoms at the same level. This is a bullish continuation sign as long as the OBV support holds. Same idea but a different angle!

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BTC clearly shows its way towards 3K so easily that I won't follow until 6K breaks (My bearish sentiment). Unfortunately, I can neither assume a straight down nor a straight up path. It offers a dip on news, with an avg volume, so I will happily take it. All TIs are at the end of bearish zone - lagging. The only leading indicator is the ST strong regular divergence on 1H/5H while daily remains under hidden bullish (HL). Active trade: Long; TP=undetermined. Success to both groups!

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BTC is building on a volume while I'm waiting for today's close. BTC's first retracement target is 5H oversold (bottomed four times with RSI=34 raising from bullish area; MFI=12; FT=Bullish) i.e. 6640 while the Fib0.618=6808 may provide the major daily resistance (RSI=36; MFI=17) given OBV maintains the HL/LL setup in coming days. I have only seen 15M rejection of 6550 for now but we will have to see when he day completes since some alts also gained significantly. Active Trades: Long; TP=Undetermined! OBV Hidden Bullish Div... invst.ly/893a4

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Not much to add except the 11-red days aren't putting such a pressure as they should have instead they gave it away at Fib0.786. The only last thing that sellers can do is to break the hidden bullish divergence setup (6131). IF NOT, BTC will complete the 5th impulsive move in 3-5 weeks. Here are some keys to look at: invst.ly/89dss (Price's Fisher holds the key unless sideways +/-$340). It is just one move checkmate for either side. ATB!

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Chart with S1, S2, S3 divergence pattern (You can also find this on other Osc such as Stochastic, FT, RSI etc.)

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They say, any move that isn't supported by volume is irrelevant despite public sentiment. On Aug 09, I raised OBV divergence issue with expecting BTC to consolidate +/-340 max despite 11-red days. We have seen such a pattern so far. With updated data, I do not see any major change while the OBV hidden bullish divergence continues. Since BTC is very close to 5762.9 (Jun 24 Low), we have a threat although OBV went more down further than the price itself. It remains a bullish continuation. Again, just one move left for bears/bulls to checkmate. If the bears miss this move, they are mate in one. I have already estimated my RR for bearish and bullish cases (below and above provisional bottom ~6K). My active trades remain open! All I can do now is to scalp the holdings and increase the numbers whenever BTC is stuck in a rectangle. invst.ly/8acit

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Very weak bullish divergence (LL/HL) on daily: invst.ly/8acnp...It is just between two daily closes. Typically, this develops a lower high, but with BTC you can expect any extraordinary move. Very early signs of gaining momentum but weak since we have just two days to justify without any major consolidation. Any ways, interesting if this builds up a pressure and accumulates here next week.

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This is the 2nd RSI divergence that I could see in 2018. Although this is small and BTC may wick down a bit to 5800 area where shorts are profit taking mostly. The bearish trend has already been exhausting and 5H has been bottomed since July 31. Any panic sell triggered before was squeezed afterwards. This is 4th time we are at this support. Bearish momentum should simply continue with a volume to support the trend. But some how, things are awkward and imbalanced. I don't want to ruin bearish sentiment but the jigsaw puzzle isn't fitting. I'm perhaps missing something, apologies in advance if this turns out to be the case. ATB!

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So far in 2018 we have seen several bearish divergences on RSI, however, today's was the 2nd bullish RSI divergence in 2018. The first occurred on Jun 24, which gave 40% profits. If this divergence holds, it can give us $700 move at least!

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We may see a small rally towards 6827 - bearish Right Shoulder relative ot July rally -(1D: FT=-4.2; Div RSI=36.5; %R=-86) with 5H momentum up, whereas the Aug decline is a large scale right shoulder of an Inv HnS (neckline 7779 just above 7777.4 Jun 3 R).

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Post 1D divergence (Aug 8-10), we saw a test of EMA9=6526, which could only put 6548.3 as today's high and nearly got 78.6% (6128.6) corrections. With 5H mildly developing as well as 1D (see FT), I see it will just take a few weeks before we see the actual consequence. This doesn't mean that BTC can still go down (below ~5800) but it will have to meet the strong 4700 support level from where I do expect a healthy bounce. My strategy remains the same, scalp whenever possible as it has given me the most outcome, keep the active trades open, and only short (mid to long term) when BTC trades below 6K. GL!

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I do not know how nicely I can put my words here so that no body is harmed. Nevertheless, the elevated volume despite significant losses (100B vaporized with CMC under 200B; alts dropped over 20% in a day) tells a different story.... invst.ly/8bmb3. But to be honest, as an interpreter this volume check-out is simply a trap - perhaps, the provisional bottom i.e. 6K may turn out to be the final bottom. Only panic sell can reduce the price down to 4700. For now, I can see 5350 as much as I can see 6800. I keep the trade on and use it to short to cover losses or perhaps get profits with minor leverage.

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I think it is also a good time to look at technical matters now. The daily is on its way towards development and gearing up (RSI=43, FT=bullish cross, vol=60K) with MACD=-201, which needs at least 3-good days to show a bullish cross. 5H bottomed a lot over past 15-days and has a bullish cross, while the very short-term signal i.e. hourly may show a mild pullback towards Fib0.786=6348 as a re-test. The upward limits are really the downward moving 200-days EMA/SMA to look at. Active trades: Longs, TP=undetermined! invst.ly/8c1ge

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For your files, here comes the old chart with new bottom test and new divergences against price and volume. Hope this helps! invst.ly/8c1pk

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With 5H three outside up [Channel-up, RSI=54.9; MACD=(24,-5) FT=bullish] I expect a test of Aug 08 and Aug 15 double top to test the daily MA50 (6935) OR M/DC=7086 from where we need to reasses the situation. Note that this miny looking rally is post price-volume AND RSI divergences on daily. Just weekly puts a pressure and now we have significant green days that the daily MACD is going to show a bullish cross if the momentum is sustainable which apparently looks good. I do not expect huge spikes until mid Sep but I do expect a slow recovery. Active Trades: Long, TP=undeterimined.

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Finally we saw an impulsive move (6899 - Fib0.618=6808) to break the 6600 resistance, which apparently saw a partial test of Fib0.618. Rejection in following days will close the doors for any further bullishness, so I am a bit consious about that. Though I expect another short-term consolidation here. This fib level needs to be broken with a follow-up volume. As long as BTC stays above 9-days EMA/MA (6467/6403), we have a chance to retrace towards Fib0.382(7454). The daily momemntum is neutral (RSI=49, FT=1.4, MACD=-189/-255) with some support from volume. Since mid June, I never supported the bearish idea above 6K since the price-volume-momentum were not in sync. Here is an updated chart with new data: invst.ly/8ec5u. Active Trades: Long; TP/SL=undetermined.

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Trading chart, BTC is testing the M/KC

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A highly volatile day with a price rejection at both 50-days and 20-days MAs. They only way to survive in this current market situation is to avoid excessive leverage and/or stop-losses. Much of the game for now is the waiting mode i.e. media/news driven. I like this volatility and will scalp this new range (6270-6431) for a little while.

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My yesterday's estimated scalp zone (6270-6431) established during sell-off went successful & now the hourly is exerting some further selling pressure (rejection from M/DC=6462). A lot is news driven for for now. If this resistance holds, BTC will revisit the 5H Higher Low (6230), giving another short-term scalp opportunity. Failure will re-test the solid bottom formed from Doji (June 24) to Hammer (Aug 14) i.e. 5762-5879 prior to any upward retracement (6800-7000) to capture back MA50/MA100 (strong resistances). All will depend on buying strength (engulfing) to break-out 9-days MA (6459) TO 50-days MA (6932). Despite these short-term rises and falls, my time projection is based on fib swing zone i.e. 1st week of Sep 2018 before any major break-out (Resumed Bearish on Weekly 'Lower Highs' or Resumed Bullish on Monthly, 'Bull Flag' - both seeking bottom, which might be already in place). Active Trades: Long, TP=undetermined.

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BTC is rising on a below par volume, which is not a good sign for a trend strength. The recent peak (6583) is just under 6600 rectangular resistance. In these situations, a pullback towards the rectangular support (6200) is very likely prior to trend continuation (Aug 08-14, bullish divergence against RSI and volume indicators). Once BTC crosses 6650 (where I will stop scalping), it has a higher likelihood to reach 7000-7200. A part from scalping these opportunities on bitmex, my major trades are net long with undetermined TPs/SL (which I will decide either if 6800 is broken with volume OR 6K). Good luck!

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OK Bulls, technically the rectangular pattern (6200-6600) is broken as well as the M/DC=6557 on 5H or on 1D=6514 are also punctured. The only technical problem is the sluggish rise is on a lower volume despite 1D RSI=50 with bullish FT & ascending VI as well as MACD. I trust it will test the daily MA50=6937.5. Just because of low volume, I am going to decide about my profit-taking positions. The first one is now placed just under MA50 i.e. TP1=6875.

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Since BTC was rising on a low volume, it could only print a lower high (6799) on a 5H Channel-up. Today's 5H bearish engulfing will find the pullback support near M/DC=6569 with max retracement to 6253 if not rejected. Despite this bearish look on an hourly time-frame, the daily holds above 20-days EMA with a gearing-up bullish momentum (MACD=-96, SMIIO=-0.0091), which means once a small volume is injected, it will test the immediate resistance i.e. 50-days MA (6940.0) with an extension to 7149. Note that this all is backed-up by 3-weeks old Upside Gap Three Methods reported on Aug-05. Active Trades: Longs, TP1=6875.

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As posted yesterday the 5H bearish engulfing pattern will find a pullback near M/DC=6569 with max retracement 6253 if not rejected. Since it held, it posted a new low i.e. 6557 (just under 6569) and now the bearish continuation puts a falling three method on 5H. Note that 5H ATR=98.89 compared to 1D ATR=308, restricts a low volatile setting won't put a major move. Since the daily is just above EMA20=6602 or M/DC=6514.6 & the 1W Upside Gap Three Methods holds, thus TP1=6875 remains intact. Active Trades: Longs.

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General Notes on Reversal Pattern:

Here is a snippet of reversal pattern that I have been posting here relative to June 24 Doji. It has been 3-months now & the Fib time extension ( proven on June Swing Zone 21 and earlier) limits these slow sinusoidal moves until mid Oct. Obviously we will see intra-days rejections of major resistances but that won't alter the price-volume action. I'll keep myself bullish above 6K and am expecting shallow price movements in early Sep and moderate (some volatility) during late Sep to early https://Oct...https://invst.ly/8fn1c...Obviously by that time everyone will have a fair idea whether the reversal is happening or not but the realization of early signs holds the key. Thank you for your kind support and sparing some time to read my trades.

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Chart link: invst.ly/8fn1c

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Strong battle between buyers and sellers post rejection of capturing 6800 on 15M timeframe. The hourly puts a selling pressure with 1.5K BTC which hasn't been bought yet. This puts a triple top near 6766 with a rising Lower Highs & post 5H candlestick formation (Engulfing bearish, falling three methods, and today's test held the resistance). All BTC has to do is to hold the last low i.e. 6253 if such a wild selling pressure is induced since the volume remains below par (<20K). Because of this rejection, I have done two things: (A) Forced closed my first position (6280) with TP1 at 6700 instead of 6875 just to cover profits; (B) Added a scalp-down (BM) of a part of my BTC funds with a SL=6850 & TP=6373 (x5) - sort of a bidirectional trade. All the best!

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Finally short squeeze on its way. I chose the wrong direction to scalp and SL triggered. Although the net long positions remain open but for the next time, a good lesson learned. I won't be shorting this until 100% confident. BTC with MC=118 and increasing dominance carries enough momentum to capture 7200-7400 (profit taking zone) before retracement.

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So far we were rising on a low volume with a flux to break the 6800 R or neckline, which was meant to be broken since it was at the fundamental support level. This is the fourth (possible) attempt to make a higher high. For bulls perspective, short squeeze is 6% with MC rising to 225 while Dash giving good profits i.e. 25% overall. BTC held monthly EMA20=6161 (just under 6253 low), and certainly defended Weekly EMA100=5856 where OBV bottomed and RSI started diverging as well as PVT. With MA100=5187 as the potential support for bears, which is a question for now. With 50-days EMA broken while SMA50 remains on card to be broken as well with an immediate resistance 1W EMA50=7307. With all these numbers and RSI=56 as well as MACD=-37 with volume oscilator being -168 (Up) near crossing, we shall approach the 7200-7400 profit taking zone. Further continuation will test the 7777 R and if enough momentum is left, then the last high will be tested.

To get the confidence back in this market, BTC has to show at least 8-Weeks of net growth OR 2-green months. That will be a sort of benchmark for investors to risk. Otherwise, any parabolic rise at these levels will be considered as an indication of freefall / bearish continuation.

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Now it is a good time to look at TIs. Post 6905 rejection, BTC climbed up to 7126 & is trading above EMA(9,26) on daily and hourly timeframes where the hourly is overbought (such as 5H: RSI=77.6, STOCHRSI=100, %R=-2.8). 1D EMA(9,26) already put a bullish cross at 6729 which will serve as a support (+Aug 28 Close). Since the STOCH=65.8/RSI has some room to grow on 5H as well as on 1D, I expect a decent test of 1W EMA50=7307 (TP) where the descending 20-weeks EMA meets (BEARISH CROSS), which is an influence of past 5-months bearish period. That is the point where I expect a pullback with an extension to 7777 upon continuation.

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Mild corrections are needed to cool-off 5H/1H overbought case, while 1D (EMA cross, RSI=58, MFI=66.8, CCI=178, BBP=680) carries enough room to grow ATR=$263 i.e. 1W50-1W20=7311-7354 (approx). Importantly, Weekly Fisher now signals a near bullish cross with Higher Low indicating that the past red weeks (11-days in a row) were just heavy corrections, which is a bit sour to digest. So far the price is consolidating above 7000 indicating that a slight push-up before correction. One thing that normally happens in stock is that the price corrects a bit later than anticipated once it crosses a psychological level just because of conservative traders having tendency to buy post B/O and confirmation.

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I definitely need some rest from this forum. But here is my take for this critical time since it is monthly close ahead. Here are my annotated targets and expected levels. If daily fails to hold above EMA100, it will re-test the last support where volume was traded. Otherwise, pullbacks will be shallow and price will slowly creep-up till mid-Sep. Active Trades: Long, Now I can safely put a SL to end the trades which is just under the daily support (6520). Talk to you soon after some time and good luck with your trades! And the chart - invst.ly/8gvkc

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BTC got first rejection at daily EMA100 (=Fib0.5=7131)& pulled back (LOW VOL) to re-test Fib0.618=6808 aiming the daily support at 6600, rejected again and developed a Higher Low. Reason, LOW VOLUME PULLBACK. 5H bearish Doji is a threat for coming weekend, which seeks 6600. With RSI above 51 & overbought derivatives, the support has to be tested to attract buyers at 6600. On a bit larger time-frame, the first impulsive move was sluggish and it expanded to 1.618=7069, I expect it to take a while and will re-test the Fib0.5/EMA100 & upon a successful breakout 7800 can define the limit....My plan remains the same as annotated: invst.ly/8hhd9. Active Trades: Long, TP2=undertermined, SL=6520 (I trust monthly will close above this). PS: Thought its worthy to show-up since it is a monthly close. TCs!

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5H Negative Divergence with overbought conditions (RSI=65, FT=-2.8, STOCHRSI=82, %R=-30), I expect BTC to pullback a bit to find an ease off moment & develop another higher low (7024). With 1D at U/DC (7260) and RSI=61 & MFI=71.9 we have enough momentum to again upon low volume pullbacks. Active trades: Long, TP2=undetermined, SL is moved up i.e 6800 (Previously 6520).

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A follow-up to yesterday's 5H Neg Div. Price pulled back a bit (7137), higher than my expected level (7024) and recovered to develop a new high (7367) with continued divergence. The shorter-timeframe look is negative which is blanket by 1D healthy B/O of EMA100 & Fib0.5 retracement relative to the last peak (8500). It is wise to lock some profits at 7300. Since 1D channel up is way below overbought (RSI=63, MACD=99.8), it still holds a good momentum along with good money flow MFI=72 (VOL = 47), I expect the shorter-timeframe to continue maintaining the Higher Low setup. All backed-up by weekly Upside Gap Three Methods and 12 Months FLAT EMA=7231 (Developing a depression phase while the monthly pullback from ATH is seemed as a bulk retracement to the mean). Active trades: Long, TP2=undetermined, SL=6800. invst.ly/8hw43 (Aug 28 Chart)

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Price got rejected from 7410 which may define a new lower high. 1H quickly oversold, and 5H neg divergence is on its way to correct down to 6600 with a possible extension to 6180-6200. I am going to take profits here for my remaining long positions and opened a short down to 6600 area. I still consider this as a correction to upside Gap Three Methods on weekly.

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Closing this talk now since I will add a new monthly portfolio here.

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