Bitcoin's LONGEST term history analysis and what comes next!
Updated
I want to call particular attention to those calling for 100K bitcoin this year and why, if history is any judge we will not touch that figure for 3-4 more years at least.
Follow me on a longterm history of bitcoin price movements, courtesy of Bitstamp, the oldest running record of bitcoin price history going back all the way to 2012.
In the picture above, I want to call your attention to something very specific. Note the 2 green circles I have drawn. These are where you can see very slight dips in that yellow moving average. That yellow line is the 100-period simple moving average. The “period” I am using in this case is 10 days. So in that case, this yellow line represents 1000 days of the average Bitcoin price movement (10 day period X 100 periods moving average). Let’s call that 3 years for simplicity sake. (FYI the Blue moving average is 25 periods i.e. 250 days, and the white line is 50 periods i.e. 500 days based on a 10-day period).
It means in both these instances, first in 2016 and again in 2020, Bitcoin’s average price movement for the preceding 3 years was ever so slightly negative. You can see this in the way the line bends downwards ever so slightly within the green circles I have drawn.
Now next make note of the blue dots that you can see underneath the circles. These are an indicator I developed and without getting into too much depth about it, I can say that what they represent is something like support (and the yellow dots above mean resistance). I am not debating here whether they actually represent support and resistance, I just want to call your attention to the existence of them and how many of them exist within the purple shaded boxes I have drawn which span over the course of most of 2016 and most of 2020.
In 2016 you see 2 of them and in 2020 you see 5 of them (one which is the “black swan” COVID market crash of 2020). Still in both of these instances, you have two of these dots and in both cases which are sitting right by that yellow 1000 day line.
Also notice the presence of the blue and white lines and how close they are to this yellow line both years and how in the case of 2020, the lines get almost tangled up together over the course of the year.
If that’s clear please see the next picture of 2024…
Follow me on a longterm history of bitcoin price movements, courtesy of Bitstamp, the oldest running record of bitcoin price history going back all the way to 2012.
In the picture above, I want to call your attention to something very specific. Note the 2 green circles I have drawn. These are where you can see very slight dips in that yellow moving average. That yellow line is the 100-period simple moving average. The “period” I am using in this case is 10 days. So in that case, this yellow line represents 1000 days of the average Bitcoin price movement (10 day period X 100 periods moving average). Let’s call that 3 years for simplicity sake. (FYI the Blue moving average is 25 periods i.e. 250 days, and the white line is 50 periods i.e. 500 days based on a 10-day period).
It means in both these instances, first in 2016 and again in 2020, Bitcoin’s average price movement for the preceding 3 years was ever so slightly negative. You can see this in the way the line bends downwards ever so slightly within the green circles I have drawn.
Now next make note of the blue dots that you can see underneath the circles. These are an indicator I developed and without getting into too much depth about it, I can say that what they represent is something like support (and the yellow dots above mean resistance). I am not debating here whether they actually represent support and resistance, I just want to call your attention to the existence of them and how many of them exist within the purple shaded boxes I have drawn which span over the course of most of 2016 and most of 2020.
In 2016 you see 2 of them and in 2020 you see 5 of them (one which is the “black swan” COVID market crash of 2020). Still in both of these instances, you have two of these dots and in both cases which are sitting right by that yellow 1000 day line.
Also notice the presence of the blue and white lines and how close they are to this yellow line both years and how in the case of 2020, the lines get almost tangled up together over the course of the year.
If that’s clear please see the next picture of 2024…
Note
Note
Above is a picture of 2024...As you can see the picture of 2024 is markedly different than 2016 and 2020. The yellow line has a deep curvature to it far deeper and more pronounced than 2016 and 2020, the blue line is just now beginning to cross over the yellow line and the white line still remains several thousand dollars below the yellow line. Also notice the complete absence of lower blue dots so far this year.
Now of course you can blindly say 2024 will be nothing like 2016 and 2020 (not even the years have anything in common!") and "because huge Wall Street funds are now involved!" and everybody knows huge Wall Street funds exist 100% to make the small guy tons and tons of money. Sure Wall Street is your best friend and they always have been.
Know anyone that lost their house or their job in 2008 market crash? I do.
Me, I am personally waiting for lower prices, some line tangling which I am sure will occur at some point this year and some blue dots to show up. You are free to buy now of course because we are going to 100K next month and 1 million dollars in 2 months. Me I am Bearish for almost the entirety of 2024.
Good luck and happy trading.
Note
I wanted to clarify one line I wrote that was miswritten:"It means in both these instances, first in 2016 and again in 2020, Bitcoin’s average price movement for the preceding 3 years was ever so slightly negative. You can see this in the way the line bends downwards ever so slightly within the green circles I have drawn."
What I meant to say is that at the moment of the slight dip, the average price for the preceding 1000 days at the moment was falling not negative. Duh.
Also, as it really only spanned about 4-5 bars in both cases and the dips were relatively flat, it means that at the moment of the dip and until the dip recovered it's upward slope the average price over the preceding 3 years was falling.
I hope that's clearer now.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.