BTC/USD - Short Term Outlook
Updated
Interesting weekend moves for bitcoin saw it find support right where was predicted in my previous analysis (See related ideas for more information regarding this).
Before we get into this analysis I just wanted to address something quickly - Lately I've noticed quite a number of people criticising me for writing "This trade is going exactly as planned", and "Going as predicted". This is my profile, these are my thoughts, and this is my idea. I am NOT going to stop writing as I please on my own page. I used to use TradingView entirely as a watch list for myself, but lately decided to spend a lot more time writing articles simply to help newer traders and I don't expect to be lectured for how I write FREE content. If you don't like me patting myself on the back or think praising oneself for a trade is somehow a bad thing, then just UNFOLLOW me. I will not stop doing it. I'm here only to serve good TA, not to hear about how my writing style is wrong. No one's forcing you to read my stuff! :-)
Moving onto why we're all here, let's analyse Bitcoin on the 4 hour chart. Our previous Bitcoin analysis went exactly to plan and price is currently loitering at the support zone. Now that price is here we can watch and consider long opportunities. As it stands, price is below the 200, 50 and 20 moving average showing that from a technical standpoint Bitcoin is actually rather weak.
HOWEVER...
There is a long term 3 wave pattern that expired at this level (Labelled on this chart as 1.618) where price has a key hidden support, so there is a high chance of a bounce here either in the form of a corrective or impulsive move. Price has been accumulating at this level very well and the candlesticks show some firm bullish behaviour in the chart. Now, I am not suggesting this level is the "holy grail" level where price will go super high. no, we're no where near a true bottom and that's a fact. BUT, we can take advantage of a short term corrective/impulsive move and book some profits in the meantime regardless, some scenarios I can see playing out are:
1) Bitcoin corrects from current levels, bouncing on the 200 major moving average and 20 moving average between 7180 and 7260 before finding resistance again and falling to the downside. either back to retest support or a lower fall.
2) Bitcoin corrects to the upside, breaks the 200 major moving average resistance, before retracing and using it as a support. If this happens the bulls will be very strong and you can expect price to go strongly to the upside from here, potentially to next structure resistance at 7710 if we're lucky.
Bear in mind that we can take these corrective moves, but the key here is to be patient! If we wait for the market to be at our feet that's a lot better than pushing ourselves into the market... That's like going to a Bakery store to buy a TV.. The compatibility isn't there.
Please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW. I'd really appreciate it. :-)
Thank you for your support.
Before we get into this analysis I just wanted to address something quickly - Lately I've noticed quite a number of people criticising me for writing "This trade is going exactly as planned", and "Going as predicted". This is my profile, these are my thoughts, and this is my idea. I am NOT going to stop writing as I please on my own page. I used to use TradingView entirely as a watch list for myself, but lately decided to spend a lot more time writing articles simply to help newer traders and I don't expect to be lectured for how I write FREE content. If you don't like me patting myself on the back or think praising oneself for a trade is somehow a bad thing, then just UNFOLLOW me. I will not stop doing it. I'm here only to serve good TA, not to hear about how my writing style is wrong. No one's forcing you to read my stuff! :-)
Moving onto why we're all here, let's analyse Bitcoin on the 4 hour chart. Our previous Bitcoin analysis went exactly to plan and price is currently loitering at the support zone. Now that price is here we can watch and consider long opportunities. As it stands, price is below the 200, 50 and 20 moving average showing that from a technical standpoint Bitcoin is actually rather weak.
HOWEVER...
There is a long term 3 wave pattern that expired at this level (Labelled on this chart as 1.618) where price has a key hidden support, so there is a high chance of a bounce here either in the form of a corrective or impulsive move. Price has been accumulating at this level very well and the candlesticks show some firm bullish behaviour in the chart. Now, I am not suggesting this level is the "holy grail" level where price will go super high. no, we're no where near a true bottom and that's a fact. BUT, we can take advantage of a short term corrective/impulsive move and book some profits in the meantime regardless, some scenarios I can see playing out are:
1) Bitcoin corrects from current levels, bouncing on the 200 major moving average and 20 moving average between 7180 and 7260 before finding resistance again and falling to the downside. either back to retest support or a lower fall.
2) Bitcoin corrects to the upside, breaks the 200 major moving average resistance, before retracing and using it as a support. If this happens the bulls will be very strong and you can expect price to go strongly to the upside from here, potentially to next structure resistance at 7710 if we're lucky.
Bear in mind that we can take these corrective moves, but the key here is to be patient! If we wait for the market to be at our feet that's a lot better than pushing ourselves into the market... That's like going to a Bakery store to buy a TV.. The compatibility isn't there.
Please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW. I'd really appreciate it. :-)
Thank you for your support.
Note
Market looking weak again as price is testing lows with a lot of force! This was very sudden.I will keep this analysis updated had it receive enough attention.
Note
Bitcoin did manage to move up around halfway to target but now bears are bullying bulls yet again. No one buys on optimism but everyone sells on criticism. This train of thought is why Bitcoin acts as it does. Oh well.
Note
Price is really holding it's own at the support level here, and the bulls are really giving it a fight. The bears were initially annihilating bulls (Basically wiping out the noobs buying too early) but bulls are really trying to claw it back at this crucial level.If price breaks below this level significantly, my idea will be invalidated and I suspect we are going lower.
Please leave a LIKE. I'd really appreciate it. :-)
Note
Looks like #Bitcoin is holding at my support level after a very shaky start. Let's hope for the upside as predicted! :-)I will be posting a new analysis later or tomorrow for BTC and will keep you all updated in the meantime.
Please leave a LIKE. I'd really appreciate it.
Thank you for your support.
Note
Price did a nice move up again, but got caught at the swing high resistance and fell. Oh well, I don't mind being completely wrong at all, and I don't care if one trading scenario of mine does not work out.Anyone who thinks traders can always be right usually have 300$ account in BitMex with 100x leverage, so taking criticism from new traders saying "wrong" makes me realise how new indeed they are. :-)
I have a new alternative scenario I'll post later.
Stay tuned!
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