Long

Bitcoin next move

Updated

We are (were!) now in consolidation mode, Bitcoin bounced beautifully on the 0.382 fibo level at 7550$ (7535 5$ under the level to be precise), and now an inside candle formed on the 1H TF and is breaking throught as I am writing this.
The 1HR RSI which was at 70 nearly overbought cooled off and dropped to close to 40 so we are ready to go up again but I would be way more confident buying in the 7200 area with a 15 min rsi oversold.
An important level will be 9200 this is where we dumped hard on the 17 January. And after that 10500.
We could get more significant pullbacks there, but that doesn't mean we're going to 6000 or some people are even calling 4000.
I bought on a break above the inside candle, it's risky, it's not guaranteed like buying on 7200 support with oversold rsi but I'm carefully monitoring the situation and I am fine with a small loss if things do'nt go my way, plus I didn't put a very large amount in that trade.
I will then probably sell at 9200 depending on how things look if we have a shot and breaking it or not, and reload on the dip.

Trade active

Let's go! A 10 to 15% profit on this trade isn't unrealistic.
Going to keep an eye on the rsi and the resistances see if we stay above 7800, if we break 8100 stay above that, break 8600, etc.
I think that trade is really risky.

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Broke the high of the breakthrough 20 minutes ago, good sign.

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Broke above 8k psychological level, still looking good...

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I can't tell for sure but I don't think 8500 will be a problem...

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I just want i to stay above 7900 as the 5 minute rsi cools off.
I'll start worrying if we get too close to 7900.

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Sometimes it's necessary to zoom out, but it's also good to zoom in to make sure everything is going according to plan

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5 min rsi about to touch 70 again.
BTC price has to stay above 8000.

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A bit of red now wouldn't worry me, but I want the 5 and 15 minutes rsi to stay above 50 and the price above 8000.

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We're below 8000 and 5 min rsi getting pretty close to 50, let's see how this goes.

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Ready to go back up

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If we don't go break 8100 or get really close or go below 7950 I'm out.

Order cancelled

I took enough risks for today I'm out at 1% profit.
I'm setting alerts around 7400 in case we retrace to 7200 and going to bed.
That would be a good buy and I can go in with more cash.
If we spike up in the next 30 minutes that would be funny. It's possible.
Buying on a clear 8100 break wouldn't be the worse idea but I'll pass.

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Hit a wall enough times and it goes down.
We haven't seen as many higher highs and higher lows in a row on the 4H in weeks.

The 1H is going to be oversold soon, and the 4H too if we keep going up.
If I was still in I would sell once we lose the higher low and be looking to buy back on pullback.
I am still holding some NEO since about somewhere between 90-94$ on average and I will sell that once BTC loses the higher lows or we get oversold, if binance comes back.
I expect a small retracement when 1H gets oversold (1k is small for Bitcoin) and a bigger one if 4H gets oversold that would be a good opportunity to buy.

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I meant overbought not oversold.
That's what I see in the future for Bitcoin:

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The important support levels and resistances.
Got to keep in mind Bitfinex had a bit of a premium before the freefall.

The odds of a bounce on 8100 are okay I'm not going to go too much in and only buy close to my stop loss target.
If we go below that the odds of bouncing on 7950 or 8k are pretty damn good I think, so I'll put more in.

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Orders spread as follows on Kraken:
8030 => 11%
7950 => 22%
7930 => 33%
7900 => 44% (Just fishing tbh)

SL = If Bitfinex falls below 7950 pretty much. We would be going to 7800.
Target = Uptrend continuation, I'll be looking at the resistances, the downtrend since 20k, the 4H 50 EMA, all that stuff. Staying in as long as we have higher lows higher highs. Possible we go to test ~9200, I'll sell at that point.

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Just one possibility that makes sense and adds a reason to think we're going to 7960 if we go down.

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Alert goes off while I'm taking a piss.
We are 35$ over my highest buy order.
15 min RSI is at 36 1H is close to 45, I'm pretty confident for now.
I don't see a huge flash crash surprising me.
5 min RSI touched 31. I think I have time to take a shower before we get to 8000.

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5 min rsi at 50. A few more minutes till we know if we go to 9k or down to 7950.

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Getting close to the top of that "consolidation".
Didn't want to enter a trade with 50/50 odds as I was busy, even it the target/SL was pretty good.

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Maybe I'll buy a bit on a break of 8320, but I'm still waiting and wishing for 7950.

Trade active

Bought a non significant amount at 8250$
Won't even sell it if we go down.
Waiting for the next move...

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This scenario pleases me:

The perfect scenario

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"The odds of a bounce on 8100 are okay I'm not going to go too much in and only buy close to my stop loss target. "
I am not a true spartean.
Should have went ALL in leverage *100.
Just kidding.
I will add a bit more when the 5 minute rsi cools off.
Trading View kept is simple for us: when you're in the green area you can go in with a larger amount, the odds are better.
Put 5% of my Kraken account in but 10-15% would have been better I think.
When 5 min cools off I'll bring that number to 10%.

Trade closed: target reached

2.5% gain on 4.5% of my account.
Waiting for next move.
Would have prefered a bigger pullback.
I'll buy on a 8650 break or a pullback.
Let's see...

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Lmao the very top on Kraken was 8470.1 sold at 8469. Skill.
Still hope it gets to that 7950 area.
IF it goes to 7900:
- Odds of going to 9k? Pretty high.
- Risk to reward: SL would be at 7850 somehting like that. Let's say 1.5% loss.
Reward at 8500 first target and 9000-9400 full target so 7-18% win. RR: 4.5-10+
Going almost all in IF we get there but I'll watch closely we stay in an uptrend.
I'll start locking in some profit if I feel I have to. Probably won't thought lol.
Wouldn't be surprised seing a rocket ship at that point.

Trade active

We retraced to 0.382 since the low of 8062 few hours ago.
I'm 10% in. Fingers crossed.

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Don't want 8200 to hold, let me make buy cheap sell high bitcoin please.

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"Perfect" scenario still open.

I'm still waiting.
I won't worry if we don't get 3 green 4H candles after touching 7900, but if we lose that level I'm cutting my losses and setting up orders on the next level (around 7770 on Bitfinex, and after that 7550-7600)

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Supposing we continu on this scenario, as we get closer to 7800-8000 I'll probably reajust my orders depending on 15 min and 1H rsi and maybe 5 min too, try to make my risk as small as possible.
If we go up well I'll buy a bit on a 8500 break and make less profit but still a bit.

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The range is tightening.
On a break below the mother bar I'll be looking at the 7800+ area.
7950 is a bit high, plus we've being going a bit lower than the fibo levels.
I will buy manually in this area looking at the chart, try to get the lowest price.
On a break above I might buy a little bit.

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Waiting...could take a while. Will set alerts and go sleep.

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Going down!
Everything going according to plan for now.

Trade active

Getting pretty close to buy target, bought some at 7905.
On this my sizing will be small to medium.
5 min rsi is really low, 15 min getting close to the oversold threshold.
1 hour at 42.
Maybe get a bit lower, then up we go I'm hoping.

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Reached flag target touched blue line and 15 min rsi touched 30 then went back up.
Cutting my losses if we go below 7800, I hope it doesn't, then it's road to 7600 which I'll buy, and use larger sizing.

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I need a diaper.

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Seems to be going up.

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Expecting it to drop a little on this bounce if it's going to go up as it did before.
We have to stay higher than the low of the dip or equal.
The gap has been smaller each time, maybe this time it is even and next time it does not go up and I'll get a discount on BTC.

I'll be ready to buy if we go to 7600 7200 or even retest 6k.
The lower the more I buy.

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If we go up going to have to keep an eye on that damn thing...

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Apparently 7935 is some kind of level???

Some bagholders there or something? XD

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Next mini-boss 8200, after that major boss battle ahead 4HR 50 EMA, 8500 won't be an issue if we break 50ema and it will probably be the same level anyway.
Mega boss battle at 9k+ after that.
I don't think the 50ema will be that hard to break not like some impossible wall, but I don't expect it to simply be breached instantly and with no (at least small) pullback after

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Price sheer, 5 min rsi getting overheated, let's let it cool off befoing going further.
I just want 8050 to hold.

Trade closed: stop reached

Broke even. Or like 3$ loss whatever.
If we go up now Imma laugh.
I will sleep and hopefully I'm going to be able to buy at 7600 as I wanted for 2 days now...Should be a nice bounce there at least 5% and next 7200 if we go that low.
I'll buy every dip as long as I'm home.

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We stopped higher than previously, if we go to a higher high we're still on an uptrend. I'll find out tomorrow if 8050 got breached or not, I just want to sleep now :)

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The tighter it gets the bigger the move when it gets out.
Could take a while...

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One possibility of many:

I hope BTC makes a move before monday thought...
It could also go down on a rejection of the 4HR 50ema.
A retest of the low at 6k would give it an impulse big enough to break out of the falling wedge.
BTC is going to be priced at 11k in February, I just don't know how we get there.
I will trade based on facts, but it doesn't hurt in the meantime, to look at the different scenarios that could be happening. There isn't 1 million possibilities, I could probably make a list of the 5-6 paths BTC could take. Going to 2800$ isn't one of them. People shorting BTC now are taking huge risks.
I stopped shorting Bitcoin the second I saw 5k buys on it and I knew some whale overcut it and my orders all missed the highest by less than 50...Thought I wa s playing it safe...If we go retest 6k I expect people to overcut it, and I will be.

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Whatever happens I'll buy the dip everytime it goes down, 5% gains at a time, I need more money to buy when it goes to the moon, plus if I trade each dip I can't miss it when it goes there :)

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Just under 50 ema

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Something that could happen:

And to separate the facts from the random speculation, the levels to watch for when we go down:

At each support level a bounce will happen at least a small one, I start buying small and buy more as we go lower. Depending on indicators speculation and alot of things I might buy bigger right away because I feel we're close to the bottom of the dip (for example 15 min rsi at 20 AND we reached flag pole target AND we are 5$ away from 0.618 fibo). Plus I try always using opportunistic flash crash orders aka fishing (for example bots removed their orders for some reason so I get a 100$ discount and my average buy is a bit lower), there's usually not that much volume on that thought, I could leave an order for 0.5 bitcoin or something and a part of it gets filled, the more the better.

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Going down soon.
To either (+/-100$):
8200
7800
7600
7200
Somewhere in the 6k region
5600 to 6000

Before going back up significantly.
Every support and the way down will give a small bounce. One of them will be a big bounce.

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They all warned me "when you make a big gain you feel like the king of the world and then you go crazy", well I doubled up in 1 or 2 days shorting BTC from 9k to 6k with margin (was a 99.9% guarenteed trade), and after that I played it too safe with really tight stop losses and everything. Damn liers! Stop warning me! :D

Could take a while but when the alerts pop I'll be ready to buy around the 8.2k area, as low as possible. And if we get to 9k i'm shorting BTC.

keeping in mind that 100 trades with

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100 trades where I go half in with a 3% gain ==> x*1.015^100 = 4.43
And that's just bonus, what I do when I'm bored, on top of the big moves that produce huge gain (like shorting bitoin on its way to 6k or buying bitcoin at 6k or shorting BTC when it was up to 14k and dropped to 9 - I couldn't sadly.)

Trade closed: target reached

Don't see Bitcoin going much further, and Binance is back.
Based on that I closed my trade on NEO. Looking to reload lower if BTC goes back to 6k or I'll wait for a break of 9k+ by BTC or NEOBTC breaks the resistance it has.
Average buy price: 97.00$
Sell price : 114.66$
Profit: 18%

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Set an Trading View alert on BTC 1H rsi going about 68.5, I will short it at that point.
Already going to set a small sell order on 8735 (kraken price), if the rsi and price goes higher I'll sell way more SL above 8800-8850.

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Hoping we go bit higher and the 5 min 15 min 1 HR RSI get overheated so I can sell way more. Setting a fishing sell order close to 8800 now.

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It won't break 8750 wall no way, 8749 it is! :D

Trade active

Shorted some BTC at 8734$ on Kraken, 15.9$ below the very top.

The bulls have shown us strength, they can go touch 8750 once again I believe!
Or maybe a bunch of normies sees this and FOMO.
Maybe I'm playing it too safe, I could sell some more slightly lower, might place a small order on 8730ish if 1HR RSI goes up some more.
Easy trade pretty safe.
SL: Above 8800$, looking to short above 8990. Or just sell more the higher we go if RSI all keep going more overbought.

Need to make profit so I can buy more BTC when it dips and send some profit into long term holds on ETH and NEO and ripple. JK I'll never buy XRP :D

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There's hope the next 1HR candle goes test 8750 a 4rth time, then I will sell a bunch more. Not a 5th 1HR candle up there thought, I don't see that happening.
I don't have a target to close my shorts yet, might be somewhere between 8500 and 8000 to be safe, or start taking profits in that zone and aim for 7600-7800. I'll keep on eye on it, there's a good chance we stop going down once the 1 HR RSI is in the 45-50 zone.
Last time we climbed like this and the 1HR RSI got into danger zone we dropped from 8500 to 7500 (and 1HR RSI at 43.5)

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Going up a bit again :D This has to be the last 1HR candle that goes up.
The sell wall on Gdax got lower we're 5$ from it, can't see Bitfinex order book idk where my password is I'll fix that later.
I'm guessing Bitfinex sell wall is a bit lower too.
Go another sell order filled at 7926 hurray (small one).
Next sells at 8739 and 8749 let's get there!

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Meant 8726 lol

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Managed to fill 1 order 15$ from the very top and another 0.5$ from the top of the 1HR candle when it went back up but that's it. Going down now.
Not sure how low, a test of 9k before dropping siginicantly (more than 1k) makes sense. Going to keep an eye on moves, and try making abit of profit before we get out of the 7800-8800 range. If we go to 9k this week end I'll short, if we go below 7800 I'll buy the dip. The rejection on 9k might bring us to 7600 but it's possible to go to 6k again. I'll buy the dip. This might happen monday/thuesday as usual.

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Down and down we go weeeeee.
I just got home when I saw where BTC was at, so didn't have time to look into it well enough, or I would have shorted way more. Of course it didn't move all the time I was home, just when I go out.

Trade closed: target reached

Let's go to 9k?
Small profit, it's something.

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Would have I stayed in at 7950, BTC did go all the way up to my target, selling at 9k I would be looking at 13% profits.
Better safe than sorry.

MrRenev

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