Bitcoin Buy Signal At Tough Location For Swing Trade Long.
Updated
Bitcoin has been in consolidating near the 11,600 to 12,300 resistance zone and today has taken out the high of yesterday's inside bar. Based on our swing trade rules, this is a new buy signal, BUT we choose NOT to participate. Why? Aren't all buy signals equal? They are not. Although the trend is CLEARLY bullish, the location is NOT ideal in terms of the probability of the location. Greed, desperation and a lack of discipline does not get in the way of our rules.
So who is this appropriate for? Smaller time frame aggressive traders who know when to get out if there is a lack of follow through. On THIS time frame, risk can be measured from the 11K level, which means buying now requires a move to the 12,500 area to be worthwhile. The 11,600 to 12,300 resistance has been tough although a break and follow through can happen, the probability still favors a fake out which is why WE choose to step aside (especially since we are NOT day trading this market).
A decisive close above 12,300 and this thing has some room to run. IF #Bitcoin fakes out instead, 11K can get taken out quickly and in this scenario we would be waiting for the 10,500 inflection point support for a new swing trade idea long. IF this thing runs from here, and we miss it, we lose NOTHING. Our primary objective is capital preservation.
So who is this appropriate for? Smaller time frame aggressive traders who know when to get out if there is a lack of follow through. On THIS time frame, risk can be measured from the 11K level, which means buying now requires a move to the 12,500 area to be worthwhile. The 11,600 to 12,300 resistance has been tough although a break and follow through can happen, the probability still favors a fake out which is why WE choose to step aside (especially since we are NOT day trading this market).
A decisive close above 12,300 and this thing has some room to run. IF #Bitcoin fakes out instead, 11K can get taken out quickly and in this scenario we would be waiting for the 10,500 inflection point support for a new swing trade idea long. IF this thing runs from here, and we miss it, we lose NOTHING. Our primary objective is capital preservation.
Note
The 11,600 to 12,300 continues to be a tough spot. IF Bitcoin does not close strongly above that 12,300 soon, there are likely to be a lot of longs caught in this thing, expecting the break out. Again this is okay for a nimble day trader, but is a low probability setup in terms of our swing trade strategy. IF price takes out 11K instead, we will be watching for the 10,500 support and evaluate price action from there. We chose to share an adjusted swing trade idea using a limit order to try and capitalize in this type of price noise and it has yet to be filled. If we are going to take any chances at such an unattractive level, we at least want a much better price than the range high. No fill? No problem.
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