BitcoinShort
Still going up
Theres one thing i consider myself to be an expert in (my opinion only) is Commercial Real Estate. Ive traded (brokered) it for over 16 years. Ive made and lost, large amounts of money. The smallest deal I ever closed was around 600,000 and it gave me the highest return on investment by far. The largest deal I've brokered was around 7 million and it had the smallest return on investment by far. Not sure of the exact lesson there other than bigger is not always better, and more is sometimes less.
I wanted to compare apples and oranges for a minute with what I see in real estate to what I see in crypto's. Current real estate market Im in is in one of the wealthiest areas in the country on a per capita basis(incomes). Schools are ranked #1(or near top) in the country and public schools are out performing private schools. Tax rates are some of the lowest in the country and quality of life is 2nd to none. Sounds like paradise right? Something that would be in high demand right? Well it is, in fact the highest demand in the country. It was just ranked # 2 (i don't put much weight in rankings, they are usually paid for) for retirement communities. The greatest schools, retirement friendly, seniors can live near their grandkids while the kids get by far higher education for free than anyone else anywhere. Heaven on earth. Want to know the problem though? No supply of sellers. Not only is the new home inventory very low, the resellers are holding because the cost of new is far more than what they own currently. They can't trade up so to speak. The reason for the low supply of new? Cost of the land and development out price the market demand. Theres a supply of new all right, 600's and up. The demand sits at 300k (the new growth incomes). Prices are rising all though its not demand volume driving it, its shortage of sellers.
There are only 2 things that can happen when prices go up because of flat or low demand because shortage of sellers.
1- Theres an increase in demand at the higher prices to sustain the uptrend
2- Prices come back down to demand.
I see the same thing in crypto at the moment. Flat to low demand, and shortage of sellers.
I think everyone agrees we are either in wave 5, or wave B. I don't know about you but either of those scenarios say there are big drops ahead. No way do I want to open long positions nearing either one of those (for me). If its wave 5 then I will wait to the top and short it big time on the way down, or its wave B and I open shorts when i see the indicators pointing that way and if Im wrong then get out quick and limit my loss.
No matter how you look at it, theres a point where theres more money in it for Bulls and Bears if prices go down. Especially on a dollar cost average going down than there is going up for a bull. It will go from 1000 back to 5000 far quicker than from 5000 to 25000 (in my opinion).
Let me also say that I can loose 100% of what Im trading with and loose no sleep what so ever. The saying " only risk what you can loose" is 1 suggestion i will take to heart for sure. 1 lesson Ive had to learn many times. Im late to the game on the current Bull run (new considering the rest of population) so going longterm for me anytime soon is just my strategy. If this was wave 1 or 2 or beginning of 3 (in the future it will be, I just don't know how long that is) then Im going long with bigger positions because overall Im longterm Bull and I don't think we've even scratched the surface of where we will be in 10 years. However I have plenty of longterm investments at the moment, plenty of real estate, stocks, etc.. The time frame I'm currently interested in is short term 1-90 day trades (until the big, big drop comes then I'm longterm in crypto). There is more money in this market for those time frames than anything else anywhere (in my opinion). So understand my strategy if you follow me and know I can loose 100% and not be affected financially at all. Thanks
I wanted to compare apples and oranges for a minute with what I see in real estate to what I see in crypto's. Current real estate market Im in is in one of the wealthiest areas in the country on a per capita basis(incomes). Schools are ranked #1(or near top) in the country and public schools are out performing private schools. Tax rates are some of the lowest in the country and quality of life is 2nd to none. Sounds like paradise right? Something that would be in high demand right? Well it is, in fact the highest demand in the country. It was just ranked # 2 (i don't put much weight in rankings, they are usually paid for) for retirement communities. The greatest schools, retirement friendly, seniors can live near their grandkids while the kids get by far higher education for free than anyone else anywhere. Heaven on earth. Want to know the problem though? No supply of sellers. Not only is the new home inventory very low, the resellers are holding because the cost of new is far more than what they own currently. They can't trade up so to speak. The reason for the low supply of new? Cost of the land and development out price the market demand. Theres a supply of new all right, 600's and up. The demand sits at 300k (the new growth incomes). Prices are rising all though its not demand volume driving it, its shortage of sellers.
There are only 2 things that can happen when prices go up because of flat or low demand because shortage of sellers.
1- Theres an increase in demand at the higher prices to sustain the uptrend
2- Prices come back down to demand.
I see the same thing in crypto at the moment. Flat to low demand, and shortage of sellers.
I think everyone agrees we are either in wave 5, or wave B. I don't know about you but either of those scenarios say there are big drops ahead. No way do I want to open long positions nearing either one of those (for me). If its wave 5 then I will wait to the top and short it big time on the way down, or its wave B and I open shorts when i see the indicators pointing that way and if Im wrong then get out quick and limit my loss.
No matter how you look at it, theres a point where theres more money in it for Bulls and Bears if prices go down. Especially on a dollar cost average going down than there is going up for a bull. It will go from 1000 back to 5000 far quicker than from 5000 to 25000 (in my opinion).
Let me also say that I can loose 100% of what Im trading with and loose no sleep what so ever. The saying " only risk what you can loose" is 1 suggestion i will take to heart for sure. 1 lesson Ive had to learn many times. Im late to the game on the current Bull run (new considering the rest of population) so going longterm for me anytime soon is just my strategy. If this was wave 1 or 2 or beginning of 3 (in the future it will be, I just don't know how long that is) then Im going long with bigger positions because overall Im longterm Bull and I don't think we've even scratched the surface of where we will be in 10 years. However I have plenty of longterm investments at the moment, plenty of real estate, stocks, etc.. The time frame I'm currently interested in is short term 1-90 day trades (until the big, big drop comes then I'm longterm in crypto). There is more money in this market for those time frames than anything else anywhere (in my opinion). So understand my strategy if you follow me and know I can loose 100% and not be affected financially at all. Thanks
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.