I will not explain all of the details of the indicator here. That is to follow. What I will say though is the following.
The ParaEye Indicator is able to with near pinpoint precision accuracy determine when a parabolic bull market is finished. After the formation of the all seeing eye begins you are trading with an extreme degree of risk. Pain is all but certain to follow before a brighter sunny sky emerges. PI Cycle Top is a broken indicator because it seems to have been fit to Bitcoin instead of developed for explaining events upfolding before our very eyes. This claim of fitting can be supported when you apply the indicator to other cryptos/stocks/etc and it doesn't have the same predictive power as compared to Bitcoin. This is one of a number of issues with the PI Cycle Top. Also PI Cycle top uses almost PI. The ParaEye uses three prime/golden ratio numbers (Not almost prime/golden ratio numbers) 5, 89 & 233. There is actually a somewhat funny but also creepy story regarding the development of these indicator and these very special numbers. Sidelining that story for now, you can apply this indicator to any asset moving in a parabolic manner and you will get great accuracy (DOGE, XRP, BTC, MARA, RIOT, TLRY, LTC, etc.).
This indicator compares the movement of a longer term moving average with the difference of a shorter term moving average minus a longer term moving average. The indicator uses standard deviation enabling it to focus on just change/variance overtime. This aspect will allow ParaEye the ability to survive the test of time and continue to produce reliable insights into the future. One essential takeaway you must be aware of though is the ParaEye is only able to provide insight into parabolic movements in price that occur on a log price chart. However, there is a hidden golden aspect to this indicator though that is universal and able to provide insights not only into parabolic movements but others still across many asset classes.
With that said, how do I interpret the chart and indicator as it relates to Bitcoin. Bitcoin literally came as close as possible to the beginning of the formation of the dreadful eye but instead bounced. This meshes with what we are seeing occur not just in the numbers but also reality. This is where Bitcoin is today:
We are still in the bull market. The trend remains higher. This is due simply to supply and demand. Less supply is coming to market because more miners are holding and financing themselves via stock issuance and other ways to raise capital. More buyers are moving their Bitcoin to cold storage and off exchanges. Adoption continues to rise with no signs of stopping. Interest from all types of individuals and entities is still rising. Given this, the lines did touch and this doesn't happen without any consequences. Bitcoin has seen a massive deceleration since contact. Comparing the 100 days since touching to the preceding 100 days before touching the returns are 64% vs 354%. To put this in perspective to achieve a CAGR of 200% all Bitcoin needs to do every 90 or so days is increase by about 32%. So we appear to still be above trend. Yet during the last 59 days Bitcoin has only increased 9%. This is below trend. Bitcoin appears to be consolidating and continuing to take a breather. Not to mention this but during the first three months of 2021 Bitcoin experienced three corrections two of which were about 30% and one about 15%. Almost the majority of Bitcoins move in the first quarter occurred from about mid January to mid February. Removing this and the rest of the time in the first quarter contributed just about 10% of the move higher in Bitcoin during the first quarter. So the first quarter was not nearly as strong as some might like to believe. However the final posting of just over 100% return in the first quarter is still very impressive.
When looking back during a bull market Bitcoin has never consolidated for more than two months. Yet the new entrants into the market who can really move the price with the money they have available are different in their purchasing habits. So as I have been saying for a while expect Bitcoin to be in a lower gear for most of the second quarter. Also after record breaking moves higher we will most likely go through a longer consolidation that ever previously seen. However, the bull market as I previously stated is not over. The trend is still HIGHER. And the clock is ticking on consolidation. We are most likely past the half way point on this consolidation and likely just beginning the fourth quarter as it comes to consolidation. $80,000 - $100,000 is where Bitcoin will be come July 1st.
The ParaEye Indicator is able to with near pinpoint precision accuracy determine when a parabolic bull market is finished. After the formation of the all seeing eye begins you are trading with an extreme degree of risk. Pain is all but certain to follow before a brighter sunny sky emerges. PI Cycle Top is a broken indicator because it seems to have been fit to Bitcoin instead of developed for explaining events upfolding before our very eyes. This claim of fitting can be supported when you apply the indicator to other cryptos/stocks/etc and it doesn't have the same predictive power as compared to Bitcoin. This is one of a number of issues with the PI Cycle Top. Also PI Cycle top uses almost PI. The ParaEye uses three prime/golden ratio numbers (Not almost prime/golden ratio numbers) 5, 89 & 233. There is actually a somewhat funny but also creepy story regarding the development of these indicator and these very special numbers. Sidelining that story for now, you can apply this indicator to any asset moving in a parabolic manner and you will get great accuracy (DOGE, XRP, BTC, MARA, RIOT, TLRY, LTC, etc.).
This indicator compares the movement of a longer term moving average with the difference of a shorter term moving average minus a longer term moving average. The indicator uses standard deviation enabling it to focus on just change/variance overtime. This aspect will allow ParaEye the ability to survive the test of time and continue to produce reliable insights into the future. One essential takeaway you must be aware of though is the ParaEye is only able to provide insight into parabolic movements in price that occur on a log price chart. However, there is a hidden golden aspect to this indicator though that is universal and able to provide insights not only into parabolic movements but others still across many asset classes.
With that said, how do I interpret the chart and indicator as it relates to Bitcoin. Bitcoin literally came as close as possible to the beginning of the formation of the dreadful eye but instead bounced. This meshes with what we are seeing occur not just in the numbers but also reality. This is where Bitcoin is today:
We are still in the bull market. The trend remains higher. This is due simply to supply and demand. Less supply is coming to market because more miners are holding and financing themselves via stock issuance and other ways to raise capital. More buyers are moving their Bitcoin to cold storage and off exchanges. Adoption continues to rise with no signs of stopping. Interest from all types of individuals and entities is still rising. Given this, the lines did touch and this doesn't happen without any consequences. Bitcoin has seen a massive deceleration since contact. Comparing the 100 days since touching to the preceding 100 days before touching the returns are 64% vs 354%. To put this in perspective to achieve a CAGR of 200% all Bitcoin needs to do every 90 or so days is increase by about 32%. So we appear to still be above trend. Yet during the last 59 days Bitcoin has only increased 9%. This is below trend. Bitcoin appears to be consolidating and continuing to take a breather. Not to mention this but during the first three months of 2021 Bitcoin experienced three corrections two of which were about 30% and one about 15%. Almost the majority of Bitcoins move in the first quarter occurred from about mid January to mid February. Removing this and the rest of the time in the first quarter contributed just about 10% of the move higher in Bitcoin during the first quarter. So the first quarter was not nearly as strong as some might like to believe. However the final posting of just over 100% return in the first quarter is still very impressive.
When looking back during a bull market Bitcoin has never consolidated for more than two months. Yet the new entrants into the market who can really move the price with the money they have available are different in their purchasing habits. So as I have been saying for a while expect Bitcoin to be in a lower gear for most of the second quarter. Also after record breaking moves higher we will most likely go through a longer consolidation that ever previously seen. However, the bull market as I previously stated is not over. The trend is still HIGHER. And the clock is ticking on consolidation. We are most likely past the half way point on this consolidation and likely just beginning the fourth quarter as it comes to consolidation. $80,000 - $100,000 is where Bitcoin will be come July 1st.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.