Bitcoin Daily Update (day 175)
Updated
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
1 day: $6,000 retest (any day now) | 1 week: break down $5,750 | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 (may need to adjust) | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Alarmed by divergence in weekly CMF’ and the buy signal on the 3d stoch. Still felt confident in the mounting resistance and felt that a good risk:reward short sale was on the table (specifically once bear flag breaks down) / Short ADA:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Bear flag forming after triangle breakdown
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,350 | R: $6,436 - $6,480
BTCUSDSHORTS: Going for a retest of the all time high. Something to keep a very close eye on.
Funding Rates: shorts pay longs 0.0561%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = currently being tested for resistance | 26 = -3.41%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.85% | 128 = -13.69% and starting to angle downward
Volume: Daily still well below MA. 4 hour had 2X average volume on recent sell off, and is declining on bounce. Hourly had roughly 4X volume on sell off.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,500 | 1 = $5,966 | 1.618 = $4,422
Candlestick analysis: Weekly hammer. Daily candles are showing a lot of indecision. Reversal candles provided a bounce on August 17th but it immediately retraced.
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish. Watch closely for price to breakthrough Tenkan-sen as a sign for a reversal.
TD’ Sequential: R3 = R2 on weekly | 3d just made bullish price flip | R2 = R1 on daily | 12h just had bearish price flip | G2 briefly > G2 on 4h
Visible Range: Point of control over last 6 months is $6,377 and that is a crucial area of support or resistance (depending what happens in the next couple days/hours). Gap at $5,000 is begging to get filled before this bear market ends.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +2.01% | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = +3.9% | 2w = +2.53% | 1m = -12.04%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA at $6,500 should be strong resistance
Trendline: Bear flag
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Two up fractals at $6,593 indicates strong resistance. Two down fractals at $5,952 indicates strong support.
On Balance Volume: Weekly bull div’ + double bottom. No div’ on daily.
ADX: Weekly ADX is creeping upward while +DI is starting to angle downward. Daily ADX is flattening out after forming lower highs and lower lows.
Chaikin Money Flow: Weekly CMF’ has a very significant bull div. Could also indicate overbought conditions.
RSI (30 setting): Weekly = 48.84 | Daily = 45.21
Stoch: %K crossing below %D on daily was only a fakeout. %K starting to diverge after making bullish cross on 3d. Still pulling back on weekly after making lower high.
BTCUSDSHORTS
Summary: The short sellers approaching an all time high and the current rates they are paying is making me feel uncomfortable with the leverage shorts that I am holding. Not to mention the beautiful weekly hammer candle that recently close.That has made me seriously consider closing my positions for the since time since they were opened.
However, it still feels premature. Last time the short sellers made an ath’ they continued to rally for 4-5 days. There is a serious cluster of resistance on top of us and instead of closing out I am going to be adjusting my stops. For BTC I am looking at $6,650 - $6,850. For ETH $326 makes a lot of sense and 0.051.
If you are not in a position then I would wait to sell pump if/when we get short squeeze.
1 day: $6,000 retest (any day now) | 1 week: break down $5,750 | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 (may need to adjust) | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Alarmed by divergence in weekly CMF’ and the buy signal on the 3d stoch. Still felt confident in the mounting resistance and felt that a good risk:reward short sale was on the table (specifically once bear flag breaks down) / Short ADA:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Bear flag forming after triangle breakdown
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,350 | R: $6,436 - $6,480
BTCUSDSHORTS: Going for a retest of the all time high. Something to keep a very close eye on.
Funding Rates: shorts pay longs 0.0561%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = currently being tested for resistance | 26 = -3.41%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.85% | 128 = -13.69% and starting to angle downward
Volume: Daily still well below MA. 4 hour had 2X average volume on recent sell off, and is declining on bounce. Hourly had roughly 4X volume on sell off.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,500 | 1 = $5,966 | 1.618 = $4,422
Candlestick analysis: Weekly hammer. Daily candles are showing a lot of indecision. Reversal candles provided a bounce on August 17th but it immediately retraced.
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish. Watch closely for price to breakthrough Tenkan-sen as a sign for a reversal.
TD’ Sequential: R3 = R2 on weekly | 3d just made bullish price flip | R2 = R1 on daily | 12h just had bearish price flip | G2 briefly > G2 on 4h
Visible Range: Point of control over last 6 months is $6,377 and that is a crucial area of support or resistance (depending what happens in the next couple days/hours). Gap at $5,000 is begging to get filled before this bear market ends.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +2.01% | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = +3.9% | 2w = +2.53% | 1m = -12.04%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA at $6,500 should be strong resistance
Trendline: Bear flag
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Two up fractals at $6,593 indicates strong resistance. Two down fractals at $5,952 indicates strong support.
On Balance Volume: Weekly bull div’ + double bottom. No div’ on daily.
ADX: Weekly ADX is creeping upward while +DI is starting to angle downward. Daily ADX is flattening out after forming lower highs and lower lows.
Chaikin Money Flow: Weekly CMF’ has a very significant bull div. Could also indicate overbought conditions.
RSI (30 setting): Weekly = 48.84 | Daily = 45.21
Stoch: %K crossing below %D on daily was only a fakeout. %K starting to diverge after making bullish cross on 3d. Still pulling back on weekly after making lower high.
BTCUSDSHORTS
Summary: The short sellers approaching an all time high and the current rates they are paying is making me feel uncomfortable with the leverage shorts that I am holding. Not to mention the beautiful weekly hammer candle that recently close.That has made me seriously consider closing my positions for the since time since they were opened.
However, it still feels premature. Last time the short sellers made an ath’ they continued to rally for 4-5 days. There is a serious cluster of resistance on top of us and instead of closing out I am going to be adjusting my stops. For BTC I am looking at $6,650 - $6,850. For ETH $326 makes a lot of sense and 0.051.
If you are not in a position then I would wait to sell pump if/when we get short squeeze.
Note
In addition to tightening my stop losses I have also taken profit by covering 20% of my positions. Using 5X leverage my ETH:USD position is + 68.96% and my ETH:BTC is + 111.75%. Covering part of my position and tightening the stops ensures a profitable trade and makes me feel much more comfortable about the bullish indicators listed above.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
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