Bitcoin; bubbles end while everyone still dreams of much bigger.
The fact that it sounds crazy to short sell a bitcoin at 8000$ after it rose more than 50% in value over a matter of days; tells it all.
I am currently shorting bitcoin at 8000 as it established a support level for the first time days.
The latter shows me that Bitcoin's MM is not willing to push beyond 8000 USD, and will likely chop around these levels for the time being.
The previous ATH flash might have been upthrust, or testing buying strength.
As CME is about to join the party within days, and as Bitfinex is shamelessly printing USDT by the minute; it looks like some of our current market makers are exiting as we speak.
Could it burst through 8000? Sure, there are plenty of shorts hoping for another flash crash down.
Question is if it would be worth the effort to enter untested grounds, the current levels could easily provide short and FOMO panic for days on end; resulting in a controlled distribution phase.
As you may see, BTC hasn't ones tested a previous resistance level to establish healthy support bases as of the 13th of November.
Why? The answer undoubtedly cannot be found with technical analysis as even Wyckoff does not seem to provide the correct answers.
So what is happening?
Bitcoin is, no matter how genius the underlying technology, a pathetic example of human fear and greed in the form of nothing more than pump and dump.
One can summon as many magic waves as he likes.
However, it will never fully explain what the heck just happened.
Usually, it comes down to one of three things.
Namely, 1. luck, 2. coincidence; or 3. You read a chart different than the MM wanted you to.
- '' But.. Btc has value!!''
As a friend of mine likes to put it: define value in 3 words, or else your words mean nothing to me.
- '' No! BTC has a huge market cap, BCH is the real penny stock!''
Compare my chart with BCH's entire third wave, and you will see where Roger learned his ways.
So, what happened to your shorts? Why couldn't you take profit and buy back in lower after FOMO and uncoordinated buyers market bought your asks when risk-reward just turned to the shitters?
Well, you were not given a chance, at all.
No, the market is indeed not kind, the majority loses and secure bids where everyone loads up do not exist, but that is precisely my point.
Bitcoin awkwardly seems to reward those who randomly press buy and hold more than traders and scalpers; well, until it doesn't.
BTC's current pump evolved by the following means:
1. Wash trading, namely on GDAX.
GDAX provides an interactive interface, and it vibes through the market much like the multiplier effect.
2. Chart painting, namely on GDAX.
Take a look at how the bots have become smarter and how they literary engineer hammers on top of the EMAS.
Gdax is no battle; it's a massive theatre without margin selling.
3. USDT, namely on Bitfinex.
Bitfinex and Tether are the same, and they print tether right before pumps. At 5600 140 million Tethers were published of which 130 went to one single address.
Careful with trading on Bitfinex, do not issue large volume withdrawal request, purchase ETH and move it instead.
Perhaps, twitter.com/Bitfinexed take a look at this page.
4. Last but not least, trapping short sellers and profit takers by buying up all dips in between support levels, making re-entry or closing unprofitable due to transaction fees.
Traders will either rebuy the top or await a possible rejection as covering would be the same as buying the top.
In case it does break out, there will likely be another retracement to cover with better risk/reward. Next thing you know you are adding shorts at new resistance levels too.
-- This all leads to a neverending margin position fueled with sunken cost and a this can't be the real mentality; most eventually end up liquidating or covering straight into Bitfinex's personal sell walls.
Place stops and take care.
In not so long from now, bears that still managed to be profitable so far, will RaaaawR all over crypto space.
I am currently shorting bitcoin at 8000 as it established a support level for the first time days.
The latter shows me that Bitcoin's MM is not willing to push beyond 8000 USD, and will likely chop around these levels for the time being.
The previous ATH flash might have been upthrust, or testing buying strength.
As CME is about to join the party within days, and as Bitfinex is shamelessly printing USDT by the minute; it looks like some of our current market makers are exiting as we speak.
Could it burst through 8000? Sure, there are plenty of shorts hoping for another flash crash down.
Question is if it would be worth the effort to enter untested grounds, the current levels could easily provide short and FOMO panic for days on end; resulting in a controlled distribution phase.
As you may see, BTC hasn't ones tested a previous resistance level to establish healthy support bases as of the 13th of November.
Why? The answer undoubtedly cannot be found with technical analysis as even Wyckoff does not seem to provide the correct answers.
So what is happening?
Bitcoin is, no matter how genius the underlying technology, a pathetic example of human fear and greed in the form of nothing more than pump and dump.
One can summon as many magic waves as he likes.
However, it will never fully explain what the heck just happened.
Usually, it comes down to one of three things.
Namely, 1. luck, 2. coincidence; or 3. You read a chart different than the MM wanted you to.
- '' But.. Btc has value!!''
As a friend of mine likes to put it: define value in 3 words, or else your words mean nothing to me.
- '' No! BTC has a huge market cap, BCH is the real penny stock!''
Compare my chart with BCH's entire third wave, and you will see where Roger learned his ways.
So, what happened to your shorts? Why couldn't you take profit and buy back in lower after FOMO and uncoordinated buyers market bought your asks when risk-reward just turned to the shitters?
Well, you were not given a chance, at all.
No, the market is indeed not kind, the majority loses and secure bids where everyone loads up do not exist, but that is precisely my point.
Bitcoin awkwardly seems to reward those who randomly press buy and hold more than traders and scalpers; well, until it doesn't.
BTC's current pump evolved by the following means:
1. Wash trading, namely on GDAX.
GDAX provides an interactive interface, and it vibes through the market much like the multiplier effect.
2. Chart painting, namely on GDAX.
Take a look at how the bots have become smarter and how they literary engineer hammers on top of the EMAS.
Gdax is no battle; it's a massive theatre without margin selling.
3. USDT, namely on Bitfinex.
Bitfinex and Tether are the same, and they print tether right before pumps. At 5600 140 million Tethers were published of which 130 went to one single address.
Careful with trading on Bitfinex, do not issue large volume withdrawal request, purchase ETH and move it instead.
Perhaps, twitter.com/Bitfinexed take a look at this page.
4. Last but not least, trapping short sellers and profit takers by buying up all dips in between support levels, making re-entry or closing unprofitable due to transaction fees.
Traders will either rebuy the top or await a possible rejection as covering would be the same as buying the top.
In case it does break out, there will likely be another retracement to cover with better risk/reward. Next thing you know you are adding shorts at new resistance levels too.
-- This all leads to a neverending margin position fueled with sunken cost and a this can't be the real mentality; most eventually end up liquidating or covering straight into Bitfinex's personal sell walls.
Place stops and take care.
In not so long from now, bears that still managed to be profitable so far, will RaaaawR all over crypto space.
Note
I've taken profit on 1/3 of my hand at 7550 and re-shorted 7990.I do not advise to open a short between these levels as you will be caught up in stressful chop.
A breakdown below 7500 could provide an alternative short opportunity.
Breakdown of 7177 might be the end of BTC's parabolic curve and a great time for bears to load up and aim for the Bahama's.
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Rinse repeat, also 60 million new tethers have been printed; where will the tethers go?Note
Update,Bearish
- MFI shows that smart money already left Bitcoin, reduction in overall long positions confirms that too as of late October
- Reason for current push? Bulls were being ping-ponged around, buying interest declined and shorts built up slowly.
Hence, MM decided to squeeze the remainder of us bears, and now we are left with fewer than at 5500; I repeat, 5500!
- We are possibly in a giant UTAD fueled by exchanges and miners.
Neutral
- CME benefits from a lower Bitcoin price, however directly shorting Bitcoin to the floor seems like a rather obvious move.
Bullish
- Possible inverse H&S with targets above 10.000USD
- 7275 correction is still bullish.
Although a low amount of shorts is not a reversal indicator perse, we're currently almost at an all-time low.
Moreover, shorts are barely increasing as bears consolidate, which is a more significant indicator than the total number of shorts.
As explained earlier, shorts are an essential instrument to push this bubble higher.
Without shorts, exchanges do not profit from their liquidations, and nothing but FOMO remains to buy into resistance.
Could FOMO be sufficient? Sure! However, that doesn't mean that one should go long. When the price is pushed only by longs, you're participating in an unstable pyramid that needs exponentially more money flowing in.
More money that is not here as entry barriers to trading crypto are significantly bigger than say stocks; at least for segments where the money is located, that is.
''UTAD—Upthrust after Distribution. This last gasp rally from Support occurs occasionally, and will drive the stock price above Resistance and the prior price peaks in the Distribution trading range. Price rallies with conviction and often has big leaping bars and volume. Once at new highs, price can stay above the Resistance area for days to weeks. The conviction of this rally and breakout will attract a following of buyers. After a series of Tests, price begins to sink back below the prior peaks and in short order is heading back to the Support area. After a UTAD, price becomes persistently weak to and through Support and into a confirmed downtrend.''
Note
imgur.com/a/GRZX3 Bitfinex longs/shorts.Black = 5500 compared to now.
Blue = Previous bear consolidation.
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Reshorted 8290, didn't cover those dips as I don't want to overtrade; my stop is above 8600.More people have been asking me whether they should move their funds out of the Bitfinex exchange.
Up until yesterday, I told you that everything should be fine, but that significant volume SEPA/wire requests could better be avoided.
Today I revoke that stance as I moved a decent sum of my funds to Coinbase, who coincidentally experienced USD wire problems.
Most of us live in a safe environment when it comes to customer protection and the regular way of doing business in b2b settings.
However, it hasn't always been this way; not so long ago corporate management was not held accountable for fraud, miss management and then some after bankruptcy.
When trading at a financial institution that has expertise in moving around money with no regulatory oversight, you are giving up that protection; meaning, nothing is unthinkable.
I do not wish to spread fear, I have no agenda and most of all it is your decision what to do in this ' crisis'.
In the past, I have posted fake wiki articles, hypothetically written in the future, in which I referred to a run to the Lambo and USD tulip. Those were good jokes, however sadly a real possibility.
These are your bread and peanut butter we are talking about, not a buy the fear moment; there's nothing wrong with being pragmatic.
- Yes, Bitfinex may be the victim of dirty Wallstreet games.
However, such scenario worries me more so.
Bitfinex has no legal status in the United States, and therefore it cannot defend itself.
News spreads fast and just like during recession a small offset of events can have a significant impact ( multiplier effect)
- Coinbase is not going to be able to account for all these floating Tethers, so when shit does hit the fan, they will likely disable crypto deposits.
What is it that changed my mind? Besides the above:
- Article in the NY times directly attacking Bitfinex and Tether
nytimes.com/2017/11/21/technology/bitcoin-bitfinex-tether.html?_r=0
- Jamie & CME futures
cnbc.com/2017/11/21/jpmorgan-reportedly-getting-into-bitcoin-futures-trading.html
- Some of the Bitfinex founders on a forum back in 2013, nuf said.
bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=224745.0
- CNBC
cnbc.com/video/2017/11/21/hackers-stole-more-than-30-million-worth-of-cryptocurrency-from-tether.html
- Note, the tether comment sneaked in.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/mike-novogratz-says-bitcoin-will-end-the-year-at-10-000
- Combination of other news.., including the continuous mentioning of Ethereum to play on people's subconscious.
Something is cooking boys, happy trading; calm down those emotions.
Trade active
I see alt confidence across the space, this means people feel confident with BTC's current position. I'm reducing the size of my short and am allocating these funds to go bull on multiple alts; this short is my hedge as alts will plummet when BTC does.BTC's downside is much bigger than those of alts, meaning that margin long on alt/btc pairs is very good risk/reward IMO.
Trade closed manually
Apparently, this chart is still open.The market was about to tumble regardless, but this is important news worth mentioning here.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/bitcoin-manipulation-is-said-to-be-focus-of-u-s-criminal-probe
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