Double Cloud for Confirmation

Updated

This is the count ive been working off of for awhile now,I don't really publish often though.
4th wave ends at the beginning of cloud 10,30,60,30 On daily.
Confirmation that we have a true uptrend for me would be breaking above red cloud.
The Fib from ATH and Local high are very similar so i see that range as the end of4th wave starting our 5th wave down.
Trend lines are from local highs and lows as well as ATH just as reference points, to see the channels we will play until confirmation of if count is correct, or wrong.

Most of these sideways periods are the dumb zone to trade in,so I willnot be trading here without confirmation of where we are headed on the short term and long term.

Note: Exiting normal cloud did result in a solid breakout,taking note of that has been crucial in playing this range.

Note

Noticing a solid consolidation along the local trend line noted in the wedge.
Yellow is the main support fib and from the downtrend line from wave 2 is in blue large.
I likely willscatter a buy or two there so i can sleep incase it retests support.
With decent volume we could break up, and close wave 4 a little later than i thought.

Thatbeing said, I would say I would be wrong the moment we get confirmation above the secondcloud and have to re evaluate my position.

To be noted, The trend line from the current bottom and the downtrend from the Wave 1 started cross exactly at the daily close.
So that should be interesting if it plays a role.

What I would avoid is trading in the dumb zone where the wedge is. The yellow is a solid support, if you don't want to miss it, while sleeping ( I will be).

Good luck and happy trading.

Trade active

If we end up bouncing from this zone, then the trade will be active till we reach targets for the end of wave 4.

I would say we begin to worry if we have a close below 8500.

Trade active

Welp the closed below 8500, bear flag ended, likely start seeing the movement downwards, no time line for it, just targets. First buy target if the yellow circle. Will have some orders there. if we go into the green, likely more sells and if we break the trend lines again consider we may have another leg up.

Following closely in this zone esp.

Note

A little bullish divergence on the 4hour could take awhile to actually play out though. May see a dip here in next 8 hours and a bump up where the yellow is.
Normal 4hr Cloud is the purple cloud with Green Tenkan and Dark Red Kijun.
Confirmation Cloud is the one with the normal colors.
Something to follow as we play this zone out, multiple attempts at breaking back above cloud have failed. Something to keep an eye on moving forward.

Note

Wanted to give another Possibility of finishing the bear flag by adjusting it to a slightly lower TF (12) Seeing where it crosses the local downtrend and up trend lines, Extended the bear flag lines just for perspective( for me), it would be an ideal point to break down also very close to the fib.

Note

targets still not hit, but as you can see here we keep testing the bottom of cloud. breaking down would be confirmed for me at the purple horizontal line, and holding above through cloud and confirmation cloud would indicate indecision, a move above black and holding would indicate we would be moving upwards again and would consider that as a buy range.

Trade active

Had a small buy below the circle // purple line, next test will be the Kijun.

If we fail there, i do not trust that fib to hold, but I have noted where the major money is hanging out waiting. That would be the next major play if we don't bounce here.
Where I would be concerned about a reversal would be a break above the Blue Line // Purple Dashedc back into cloud. As you can see we had a bearish divergence TK cross on the Normal cloud, if that continues to play then we have a ways more down togo before we have a real bounce back up.

Happy trading, hopefully you are getting even more entries.

Note

Now that every single target has been hit along the way, I am confident saying the next bounce point is the green dashed line, with a possible peak of 8.2k on the next corrective wave.
Wave 4 never completed as high as I wanted, but it is following the downtrend line from wave 2 very well, so it does confirm for me that the next wave is 5th and it is down.

Staggering the rest of my buys along the green dashed line, and waiting for bounce there to exit.
Depending on the strength of the reversal we may hold above for quite some time, before continuing the descent lower.

This month trading, beyond margins, has been risk mitigation, and less profits overall.
two scenerios 5th wave ends at 66-6700, or it is extended to a double bottom at 6k. at one of those points we will see a massive reversal where we will see actual profits.

Trade active

Looking like an extended 5th wave
is gonna happen.

Note

Looks like we are building some resistance at that fib / tenkan line. with more resistance at 7250.
while we are oversold on almost every TF, panic can keep it down prettyy low for awhile.

Note

Close Above 7022~ would mean we are going to likely test Normal Cloud, and Kijun.
So this should be an interesting 4hr.

Likely High of 7200, if shorting, I started Scaling in at 7020 and will continue if there are moves upwards

Also on exchanges have been scaling my sells from 7000 and up, essentially taking profits on all the BTC accumulated from 6700 and below.
Good Luck traders!

Note

Well, like I said, The high would be at 7200, we didn't quite make it, we got close at 7184.

As you can see, We instantly shattered the local downtrend line that we were playing on for awhile yesterday.

I still see a bottom of 6200, with an absolute of 5500, So my buys are staggered in there for serious reentry.

Note

Tirin

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