Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Strong week by the bears and 60000 held as expected. Bulls are currently not able to close a daily bar above the daily 20ema or 62000. As long as that’s the case, I expect at least a second leg down to 55000 or lower. Bulls need something above 63000 for me to doubt my bear case.
Quote from last week:
comment: Strong start of the week by the bears and they want a second leg down to 57000 or lower. The daily 20ema is flat and market is oscillating around it. Bad place to trade in any way and you should wait for a clear direction again. Since we are inside nested triangles, watch for the 50% pb (mid point of the range) and how market reacts to it.
current market cycle: trading range and bull trend on smaller tf
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Above 63500 I think bulls can get to 65000 or higher again. We are still close and flat enough to view this as a normal pullback after a sell spike and that’s why I think bulls need to continue strongly on Monday or bears will likely take over and go for the second leg down.
Invalidation is below 59800.
bear case: They want a strong second leg down to 57000 or lower. Odds still favor them but they need to stay below 63000 or we might go back up again. The bull trend line is support until broken and you can’t be bearish in the pure hope of bears breaking it.
Invalidation is above 63500.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded around 65800 and now we are at 62700. Bad outlook.
short term: Neutral around 62000-63000. Bearish below 59000. Bullish only on strong momentum up above 63000 for 65000 again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted the nested triangles and removed the rest.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Strong week by the bears and 60000 held as expected. Bulls are currently not able to close a daily bar above the daily 20ema or 62000. As long as that’s the case, I expect at least a second leg down to 55000 or lower. Bulls need something above 63000 for me to doubt my bear case.
Quote from last week:
comment:64500 was my clear invalidation level for many weeks now and bulls are staying above 65400 over the weekend. That’s confirmation for the bulls. Market has now formed another wedge and we could continue sideways until we hit the bull trend line around 65500. Bulls are in control of the market.
comment: Strong start of the week by the bears and they want a second leg down to 57000 or lower. The daily 20ema is flat and market is oscillating around it. Bad place to trade in any way and you should wait for a clear direction again. Since we are inside nested triangles, watch for the 50% pb (mid point of the range) and how market reacts to it.
current market cycle: trading range and bull trend on smaller tf
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Above 63500 I think bulls can get to 65000 or higher again. We are still close and flat enough to view this as a normal pullback after a sell spike and that’s why I think bulls need to continue strongly on Monday or bears will likely take over and go for the second leg down.
Invalidation is below 59800.
bear case: They want a strong second leg down to 57000 or lower. Odds still favor them but they need to stay below 63000 or we might go back up again. The bull trend line is support until broken and you can’t be bearish in the pure hope of bears breaking it.
Invalidation is above 63500.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 67000 or 68000.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 65800 and now we are at 62700. Bad outlook.
short term: Neutral around 62000-63000. Bearish below 59000. Bullish only on strong momentum up above 63000 for 65000 again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted the nested triangles and removed the rest.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.