BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trade Points From Here

Updated

Bitcoin Trade Points Today
Bitcoin was left looking at a counter-rally 'towards 9700 before it comes off again'.
It took another 7 hours or so of whipsaw and confusion to get there but by
01:00 gmt/20:00est Bitcoin made a high at 9671, taking out more stops placed
just below here in the mind-numbing game of Pacman/hunt the stop that lasted
right through the US session and only came alive again as far Eastern markets reopened.
Then, finally the break materialised as Bitcoin fell through the lower parallel of the
continuation pattern and we then got a decent streak of tradeable red - that is if you
hadn't been sent to sleep in the meantime. But if you were patient enough to stay
with it you got the rewards - in the end. Trading Bitcoin is similar to fishing.
Both need the patience to wait for the fish to come to you.

It was meant to fall back to the 9253-9180 range before rallying again with any real
power behind it. The low so far is 9207.
Since then Bitcoin has fallen away to create a new pair of parallels, bouncing off the
lower parallel and making another small continuation pattern in a smaller pair of rising
parallels withing the larger falling parallel formation. It's now touching resistance off
the upper smaller rising parallel and vulnerable once more - a sell from here with
stops above the same small parallel.
It can spend several hours messing with heads again like yesterday, falling to the
lower parallel of the continuation pattern and rallying again, potentially as high as
9469 and the upper parallel later on, though in near term the 9375 line is proving hard to beat.

Long story short, we're looking a pattern similar to yesterday's so far. Sheesh.
It looks like it has longer to play out but the pattern can break at any point really.
It's therefore in day trader territory right now again.

To escape the downtrend it has to break above the 9469 line and hold -
if we see it materialise later can follow long with stops below.

And on the downside after more time spent moving within the rising parallels of the
continuation pattern the next short gets triggered on a break below the lower rising
parallel under price now with stops above.

Until then this is likely to drive us nuts with frustration. Patience or time-out in meantime.

Note

Bitcoin Chart Updates
Bitstamp

Coinbase Update

Bitfinex Update

Note

sumastardon admin, [7 May 2018, 19:14:29]:
Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update
Not too much needs adding to earlier comments today (please scroll up) -
It's fallen to a low at 9182 which is 2 points above the line and the downside target on this feed. Since then it's made another variation on a completion pattern and is now consolidating under the upper parallel.
It's hanging on a knife edge underneath it with the 9348 line supporting it.
It really can go either way from this point - but this pattern is often the prelude to a break higher, not lower, so we need to be ready for both.
A break above the upper parallel can be followed with stops below the 9348 line if we see it later.
And alternatively can short on a fall below 9330 for quick decline to 9268 at least and potentially to 9180 and lower still to the lower parallel.
Boring still for now, but getting close to some action again as the minutes tick away...

Bitcoin Coinbase Update

Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update

Note

11:34gmt 06:34est
Bitcoin Chart Updates
A long 30 hour period of stultifying range trading has left Bitcoin in the same place it was through much of yesterday. Flat. Flatter than DXY right now.
The long from around 9390 on Coinbase got stuck at the next line of resistance at 9448 and then fell back down the same parallel it had broken above and the short which then triggered only reached the 9268 target on Bitstamp (9 points higher on Bitfinex and 12 on Coinbase) which made for a very trying overnight session as Bitcoin continues to struggle for direction.

Still no big green impulse candles emerging suggesting that this move is still corrective in nature. Conditions are not easy and we are probably going to be looking at 100 point moves in the near term.
Right now it's pushing up against the 9375 resistance line on Bitstamp and vulnerable again here. It's beginning to fall away from here now.
But it's also still possible that the low at 9182 yesterday was the final low as it did complete on the downside where it was meant to. It's tricky here as it struggles for direction. Hopefully what happens next wil help to determine that a little better.
If it is to be the low that bulls will be hoping for then the next decline must create a double bottom at the 9182 level or very close to it. Any failure to hold 9165 at lowest will trigger the next short to 9055 intiially and then lower still to the 8898-8822 range.
Upside trades are harder to divine at this point. It has bounced now from around the next support line at 9253 here but the pattern is not bullish still as yet.
It has to break above 9380 and hold there to trigger a long shot with stops below 9365 if we see it later.
But so far we are still in tricky conditions and it looks more like it has to come off again soon . How it behaves at 9282 is the key to the next trade from here.

Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update

Bitfinex Chart Update

Note

Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update
Although there was another attempt to break above the 9353 line at the midnight hour / 19:00 est Bitcoin made a similar pattern to the one above it, making a small double top before falling away again.

We have had 4 waves down marked by 4 streaks of red but each decline is getting smaller as we progress - the first being 520 points, the second 495, the third 394 points and this fourth wave being 276 points so far.

Frustratingly, although these 4 waves would normally signify completion of the move, once again the overall move doesn't look quite finished yet.

On the bull side we have 4 waves down and a bullish declining wedge formation now emerging from the waves.

The only thing the bears still have on their side now is the fact that the move down just doesn't look quite done yet - but it's getting close now by the look of the chart so we need to start thinking about accumulating again soon.

Bitcoin is curently making yet another small continuation pattern and is pushing towards the top of the upper small parallel of the pattern as this update is finished.
It should start to come off again from here.
Ideally it will fall away one last time towards 8898-8822 range where it will bottom out at last and give us an entry point from there.
But Bitcoin does what it wants and not always what we want it to. So if wrong about the final low and it turns out to be already struck at the 8974 overnight low around midnight est then we need better confirmation than we have right now...
We have to see it break above the upper dynamic and volume to pick up as it does it.
And then it has to break above the 9180 line and hold up. At some point soon this break to the upside is likely but ideally will come from lower (as above).
We need to keep a close eye on this today.
Opportunity is beginning to knock

Bitcoin Bitfinex Update

Bitcoin Coinbase Update

Note

Bitcoin Bitfinex Update

Bitcoin Coinbase Update

12:07 gmt 07:07est Update
Bitcoin Counter Rallies
The last 3 counter-rallies were 240, 269 and 259 points.
This rally is 239 so far...

But it didn't take much volume there to get it 150 points higher this time around.

we are close to the bottom now by look of things.
Still hoping for that last push lower but we need to be prepared for the fact that we might not see it - markets is tilted bear side - another ultimately bullish sign.
Open mind-set needed right now

Bitcoin Coinbase with Volume

13:44gmt 08:44est
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
A good surge of green for the first time since the downtrend began pretty much confirms that the low of the run was at 8974 at midnight est exactly.
Those who have been waiting and with open enough minds to handle the brreak when it came are back long above 9180 as waiting for the lower low turned to hopes abandoned on the break above 9180.

There's quite a big spike above price on the 15 minute which likely means more unwinding in the near term but would really like to hold this position for now and keep the stop under 9180 for rough break even if it ends up by failing.
Otherwise can raise the stop to just below the first line of support on Bitstamp chart at 9250 and look to buy again if broken nearer to the 9180 line again.

The rally is the biggest we've seen in the run down at 353 points. Another sign that the trend is turning

Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart
The decline here was from 9990 to 8980.
10% is a standard/text-book correction/deviation in any 'major' market (9-11%)

Coinbase Chart Update

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Note

Bitcoin Coinbase v Bitstamp Update
The low overnight was 9227 - the stop was under 9240 on Coinbase. Close but no cigar - but those 10 points or so are the difference between a trade staying good and bad. The easiest way around that is to never use a stop or to run one 500 points away. But that is crazier still. For newer members of the group the best compromise is to check the advice on running stops pinned at the top of this page. There is no perfect stop placement. If there was we'd all be using it. There is only best practice, (please see above for more details). If you were cool enough to leave the stop under the break line at 9162 on this feed well done you.

whereas on the Bitstamp chart Bitcoin fell to the 9180 line precisely where we were looking to get long again.
So the levels worked spot on if lucky enough to trade on Bitstamp and were badly out by 13 points or so on Coinbase.
One day one price. One day ...

Overnight on Coinbase Bitcoin has moved sideways around the 9243 line before pushing higher to test the next resistance line at 9390 after a high so far at 9386.
Spikes above price on the 15 minute chart suggest a period of consolidation in the near term but the trend is still positive and it's still a buy dips market at this point.
We've had one wave up so far and there should be 2 or 3 more to come. The first wave is not corrective, the big green being evidence of that.
Although it's holding up at 9350 off the overnight highs it should come off again but even if it breaks lower it should only fall to the lower rising parallel at lowest at which point it should rally again.
It looks like we will test 9612-9663 again soon and 9863 later - so long as the lower parallel holds up from here on retests.

Bitcoin Bitstamp Feed Update
Perfect retest of the 9180 break line on this feed overnight, giving second opportunity to get long

Bitfinex Feed Update

Note

Bitcoin Bistamp Update
Bitcoin is coming back to test the lower parallel and must hold at 9320-9300 to avoid falling back to 9253-9244 support line at least .
Bitcoin really needs buyers again soon. We need to see another big green candle soon now. If we don't get a decent bounce in the run up to US open then apathy will eventually grind the price lower until interest re-emerges, obviously.

Wave Counts
Bears will argue that we've actually has 3 waves up already and though the first was OK (but not spectacular as in the past, just OK) the 2nd and 3rd little waves higher are weak - this could be a false break higher and it's topping at the 9375 line.

Bulls will say it's had one wave up which is still being tested and consolidated off the lower parallel.

Right now am still tilted towards the bull side but need to return to open minded really - stops on longs can be raised to just under 9300 and the chart will decide next actions from here.

A break below 9300 would be nearterm bearish and a break above 9400 will re-assert the uptrend but will need volume to arrive soon to turn this from another failed counter-rally into a real uptrend from this point.

At the moment it's somewhere in between really.
Need breaks as above to clarify exactly which way from here is most likely.
But so far this price is corrective in nature and remains so as long as the lower parallel holds. Hence long stops need to be left below here for now.
However try to kee an open mind here. It's a close run thing so far

Coinbase Chart Update

Bitcoin Bitfinex
Bitcoin is trapped inside a dangerous looking triangle here - caution as above .
Bears will be looking at this and thinking it usually results in a negative outcome.
They are not wrong either.
Long stops can still be raised no higher than 9314 on Coinbase by look of it at moment -

Note

14:37 gmt 09:37 est Bitcoin Futures Update
Pushing the limit on US open - but be careful here - it needs some buyers again right here right now to break higher

Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed
Same problem here - slightly different pattern

Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update
Finally resolution. No follow through after US open, a break of the parallel followed by a suck-in up the underside of the same line before eventual failure.
Perhaps it happened too quickly without orders set in the market to buy above 9400 and sell below 9300.
The break is pretty decisive and though it can rally back as high as 9264 on Bitfinex it looks likely to come off again soon. If short the stop needs to be above here for now - day traders may prefer to drop the stop to just above 9200 maybe. Difficult to know for sure though at this point

*For Bitcoin updates in real-time for more active traders please see link, top-left of main page

Note

Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Bitcoin is trying to exit the continuation pattern - if still short can lower stop to 9121 on this feed .

Note

Bitcoin Coinbase Update
If Bitcoin is going to stop falling it should be at 8700 as it hits the lower dynamic.
If still short close out and only short again on a break below 8690 on this feed

Note

Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed Update

Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Although it's bounced from the lower parallel Bitcoin is still trapped in a near term down-wave within the larger parallels on this chart. Looks like it can only rally to 8865 line before it comes off again - so far there are spikes forming off the 8822 line.

Bitcoin has to hold up at the 8654 line line from here - any failure to do so will send Bitcoin into free-fall down to 8441 to start with, then to 7800 and potentially much lower still.

Bitstamp Bigger Picture

Note

09:15gmt 04:15est
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Although it's bounced from the lower parallel Bitcoin is still trapped in a near term down-wave within the larger parallels on this chart. Looks like it can only rally to 8865 line before it comes off again - so far there are spikes forming off the 8822 line.

Bitcoin has to hold up at the 8654 line line from here - any failure to do so will send Bitcoin into free-fall down to 8441 to start with, then to 7800 and potentially much lower still.

Bitstamp Bigger Picture

Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
3 waves down from the 9391 line high and now in the 4th - we now need to watch for loss of downward momentum - if it's to halt and begin to rally further then the 8689 line has to hold up from here on any retest.
It is trying to stabilise but is still stuck within the smaller parallels and therefore difficult to trade right now.
Has to break the low and the lower parallel to flip back to short again still - if you shorted again from the resistance line at 8835 on this feed drive the stop down low as possible to 8770 as it is trying to turn around here but is under a little dynamic from 8835, the most recent counter-rally high. It has to break above here before the bears will back off a little and has then to break above 8881 line and hold there before it looks safe enough to consider a long again from here though day traders may wish to catch the break above the smallest dynamic if we see it hold up at the 8690 level first on this next retest.

tradingview.com/x/kAluslOa/https://www.tradingview.com/x/kAluslOa/

Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Closer

Note

11:00gmt 06:00 est Update
Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update
Another perfect test oif the lower parallel and now it's testing the little dynamic above price....this flips back to near term positive once the this dynamic is broken - must then hold up at the 8689-line and at lower parallel at lowest from here for the rally to have a hope of lasting for a while

*For Bitcoin updates in real-time for more active traders please see link at top-left of main page

Note

Bitcoin Futures Chart Update
Levels look quite clear here.
Has to break and hold above 8815 line to trigger a long shot.
And has to break below the the lower paralle to go into free-fall.
So far 4 waves down with double bottom off the 4th - text book stuff so far. (Bitcoin text-book, that is)

Bitcoin Futures Chart Closer

Note

Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Near term No-Man's land as it struggles for stability
Has to break above 8826 and the upper smaller parallel to trigger a long .
Has to break below 8660 and the lower parallel to trigger next short from here

Bitcoin Coinbase Bigger

Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update

Bifinex Closer

Bitstamp Update

Bitstamp Bigger

Note

Bitcoin
Mofo (me not Bitcoin)
Checking over yesterday's final update and For the record: the short stop was lowered on Bitstamp at 22:23gmt 17:23 est to 9121.
Bitcoin then rallied to a high at 9130 before falling away to the desired target at the lower parallel.
For the sake of 10 points this trade therefore lost the chance of winning a further 400 or so points down to 8700.

The stop on Coinbase yesterday was 13 points wrong.

So returning to the never-ending saga of the stop and the repeated warnings to newer members of this group and any newer followers on Tv and attached for posterity at the top of every page on Chart-Attack best practice is to add at least 15 to 20 points to the stops listed here.
There is no perfect stop system or we'd all be using it. More's the pity.
There is only 'best practice'.
Calibrate your own rifle.
In sniper-speak the intention is to blow the head of the enemy into a pink mist. A definite hit. And not to shoot your damn toe off before you even get into position.
Hopefully most of the more experienced traders here learned this lesson long ago.
To anyone who joined as recently as yesterday please read the stop warning pinned at top of page (on Telegram) if you're an active trader
What a day to join...

Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Bitcoin is line-dancing down the lower parallel and can spend a while doing so - cannot be shorted unless 8654 and the lower parallel are both broken and cannot be bought yet (except speculatively off the lower parallel with stops under) until it breaks the upper parallel at 8822 and holds on the retest

Bitstamp Update
Having broken the lower parallel at 8675 on this feed is testing the next support line 8539 annd the lower smaller parallel too.
Looking beyond a near term bounce It should fall away to 8440 .
If 8440 then fails it should then fall another 600 points to 7800.

15:42 gmt 10:42 est
Bitcoin Bitstamp Continuation patterns over 24 hours
Can rally to 8654 but looks unlikely to get much higher at this point.
The last patterns lasted for 4 hours or more - this one is about 2 hours 40 minutes old so far

sumastardon

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