#bitcoin bear trap update can bulls outsmart bears this time Y/N
Updated
This is a bear trap update. In my last post I added volatility boxes of relevant consecutive fractal lows. I left out the one from 1 April to 6 April as time wise it did not appear relevant to my study at this point in time.
In the signal line of the MACD (brown) I have kept track not only of when it turns above and below zero but also all the turning points in the trend because the price volatility of those days has revealed important support and resistance levels when comparing past patterns like for like i.e. the yellow vertical line on the chart has never been breached, and if it was then a potential change in trend could be happening.
I've added some more coloured verticals as the expected Williams Fractal high undershot and could signal some change happening. All the news in the market has been building up to something bullish, but has the news got it right?
As mentioned in my previous post, the idea has worked three times in 2018. Don't ask me why. Currently the Bollinger Band is registering circa $6,636.1 down from $6,716 yesterday, and down from $6,884 Thursday. The expected Williams Fractal high has been confirmed as being 15 August at $6,647.6. Will there be another because it missed its target? As commented in previous post, on 20 January price overshot by $67, 12 March by $126, and 21 May by $15. Will the idea work a fourth time?
Note: For those who are not familiar with Trading View the chart above can be dragged backwards and forwards to view more.
Here's how to construct it as mentioned in my last post:
Bollinger Bands
Leave out basis and upper
Set to length 20; Source Low; and STD Dev 0.001
MACD is (6, 13, close, 31) to section off the zones, and I've only shown the signal line. I've left out the Histogram and MACD parts.
NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. BEYOND T.A.
In the signal line of the MACD (brown) I have kept track not only of when it turns above and below zero but also all the turning points in the trend because the price volatility of those days has revealed important support and resistance levels when comparing past patterns like for like i.e. the yellow vertical line on the chart has never been breached, and if it was then a potential change in trend could be happening.
I've added some more coloured verticals as the expected Williams Fractal high undershot and could signal some change happening. All the news in the market has been building up to something bullish, but has the news got it right?
As mentioned in my previous post, the idea has worked three times in 2018. Don't ask me why. Currently the Bollinger Band is registering circa $6,636.1 down from $6,716 yesterday, and down from $6,884 Thursday. The expected Williams Fractal high has been confirmed as being 15 August at $6,647.6. Will there be another because it missed its target? As commented in previous post, on 20 January price overshot by $67, 12 March by $126, and 21 May by $15. Will the idea work a fourth time?
Note: For those who are not familiar with Trading View the chart above can be dragged backwards and forwards to view more.
Here's how to construct it as mentioned in my last post:
Bollinger Bands
Leave out basis and upper
Set to length 20; Source Low; and STD Dev 0.001
MACD is (6, 13, close, 31) to section off the zones, and I've only shown the signal line. I've left out the Histogram and MACD parts.
NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. BEYOND T.A.
Note
Chart was not showing up until you click it. Don't know why. It is a curated/edited chart of the one I'm actually using so that may have caused so problems. Problem may resolve itself later on.Note
COPYMy latest post 19 Aug : bitcoin bear trap - Is it too late to work/repeat Y/N
It now can't be ignored that this bear trap is beginning to look more like having only a 50% chance of repeating. The Williams fractal high target was missed - was too low, and opened up potential for a consecutive Williams fractal high after which could follow a bullish fractal low. I've boxed volatility of key Williams fractal highs in green with yellow borders. Obviously, a breakout of the top could signal a break with previous patterns, and a break out below could signal a bear trap pattern continuation , or, formation of a bullish fractal low.
NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. BEYOND T.A.
Note
Copy:Check out my latest post: #bitcoin potential $8,644 - $8,309.1 if holds $6,008. new study.
Note
ROUNDUP OF ALL MY POSTINGS A Williams Fractal low followed by consecutive Williams Fractal highs, all we need now is a bullish Williams Fractal low above the previous fractal low for a bounce like that formed 29 June, 4 July, 7 July, and 12 July respectively. How much room does the market have for a bullish bounce?
In my post 19 Aug I questioned "bitcoin bear trap - Is it too late to work/repeat" and I marked in green the volatility of a key fractal a breach of which was previously a bear signal. To sum up all my posts about that signal it bears no resemblance to previous bear signals - mist targets, and William Fractals, therefore best to ignore it.
The next potential was also posted same day 19 Aug headed "bitcoin potential $8,644 - $8,309.1 if holds $6,008. new study" and this can't be ignored.
Since publication of the post the signal went higher (add light blue vertical), and lower (add purple vertical). The good news is that the last fractal high was made before it. Had it been made after then it would have been starting off as a red box and a sell.
So now, will the shape of the next fractal low be that of a green box and a buy? Always take only the reading of the first fractal after a change in direction of the signal line.
Can it be formed before the low of $6,008 made 11 Aug?
A break below the low of 14 Aug $5,858.6 as per my post 15 Aug "#bitcoin mega quant move here's how and why - update" favours the bears. At this time of posting that quant move still favours the bulls.
If we do get a fractal bounce then I expect it will form a key upward trend line.
How to trade these possibilities is not something I'm going to get into.
NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Note
One final point just noticed about the consecutive Williams fractal highs is that the second did not form a higher high which is unusual given past patterns. Would that be counted as bearish?NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
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