Bitcoin: BTCUSD Double Top at 9000 - Caution Required Now
Updated
Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update Double Top at 9000 Witching Hour - Caution
Bitcoin reached a high at 8999 on Bitfinex overnight around mignight gmt - effectively a double top here after a 50% rally. As the futures
chart shows the entire range from 9000 to 9225 is a powerful resistance zone and Bitcoin is clearly struggling to make
headway above here. Additionally it has lost the longer term dynamic support and although buyers have appeared at the
8346 line it's more likely day traders scalping 200 points where they can. It's difficult now to keep a bull hat on from
here ...it will have to break above the parallels guiding the current down-trend from the overnight high and then hold up
at 8586 to change the picture back to near term positive - but even then the bigger rising dynamic now above price will be
likely to hold back rally attempts from here - if we see this and you follow long again to use a stop under 8550 as any
breakout from 8586 line cannot be trusted as others were - because of that overhead dynamic resistance line.
Right now this is day traders' territory - the smaller rsisng dynamic running under price is their likely stop line and if
breaks below it it will fall away to 8346-8300 again and then if this breaks to the lower parallel of the continuation pattern .
All smaller 150 to 200 moves right now. But in near term Bitcoin is trying hard to penetrate the upper parallel of the
continuation pattern - bulls don't want to quit still, but they're beginning to push against a closing door...that bigger
rising dynamic now above it is likely to stop any rally from here...after a 3000 point 50% rally, where we first bought at
6200 and have bought every break out good and bad since, discretion has once more become the better part of valor for
wiser Bitcoin bulls. We had our time. And now it's time to turn cautious again.
Just be very careful if tempted in by this rally now...it can push higher because some still have bull hats on when they
should really be looking for shorts from here - but that dynamic should stop them if they can push it that high. If
you're still wearing your bull hat, tread carefully, is all.
Bitcoin reached a high at 8999 on Bitfinex overnight around mignight gmt - effectively a double top here after a 50% rally. As the futures
chart shows the entire range from 9000 to 9225 is a powerful resistance zone and Bitcoin is clearly struggling to make
headway above here. Additionally it has lost the longer term dynamic support and although buyers have appeared at the
8346 line it's more likely day traders scalping 200 points where they can. It's difficult now to keep a bull hat on from
here ...it will have to break above the parallels guiding the current down-trend from the overnight high and then hold up
at 8586 to change the picture back to near term positive - but even then the bigger rising dynamic now above price will be
likely to hold back rally attempts from here - if we see this and you follow long again to use a stop under 8550 as any
breakout from 8586 line cannot be trusted as others were - because of that overhead dynamic resistance line.
Right now this is day traders' territory - the smaller rsisng dynamic running under price is their likely stop line and if
breaks below it it will fall away to 8346-8300 again and then if this breaks to the lower parallel of the continuation pattern .
All smaller 150 to 200 moves right now. But in near term Bitcoin is trying hard to penetrate the upper parallel of the
continuation pattern - bulls don't want to quit still, but they're beginning to push against a closing door...that bigger
rising dynamic now above it is likely to stop any rally from here...after a 3000 point 50% rally, where we first bought at
6200 and have bought every break out good and bad since, discretion has once more become the better part of valor for
wiser Bitcoin bulls. We had our time. And now it's time to turn cautious again.
Just be very careful if tempted in by this rally now...it can push higher because some still have bull hats on when they
should really be looking for shorts from here - but that dynamic should stop them if they can push it that high. If
you're still wearing your bull hat, tread carefully, is all.
Note
Bitcoin UpdateSo Bitcoin is now testing the bigger rising dynamic from the underside...it should stop here if this is a bull trap. This is the point of utmost caution - and if wrong here and it can find buyers enough to break above the dynamic and hold up there then once again Bitcoin will have made another great escape...only at that point will be forced into switching back long but still very cautious and running a tight stop under the pulse higher from 8650 if it comes. In near term it's running in neutral between resistance above from the dynamic and support below from the smaller rising dynamic running under the lows of the day - a break of either is needed to trigger a small fast 150 to 200 point trade from here - from 8500 to 8350 or from 8650 to 8750 and then from 8750 to 8925 - unlikely as things stand but it's Bitcoin...it can do anything it wants and usually does.
Note
Bitcoin Update BitfinexRejection spikes off the upper dynamic though inexact - but it's holding up off the upper parallel - entangled in a geometric quandary and still neutral pretty much with a mild bearish bias as it dribbles down the parallel - if you shorted this on the break of the smaller rising dynamic underpinning the price lower stop to 8542 for small win if hit. This is a grind both ways right now/neutral still but only mildly bearish so far...
Note
Note
For Bitcoin's next trick it's jamming itself into an ever tightening range - if it can break the falling minor dynamic from the recent minor highs it will complete a small RHS pattern which should help it to push back up to 8925 eventually.. buy still likley to remain stuck below the bigger rising dynamic as it does so. As things stand it's quite a big ask of the bulls here - but still possible though hopes will fade soon if buyers don't arrive quickly enough at these levels. As with the DXY pattern earlier, Bitcoin is trying valliantly to rise up the old support line ...eventually it should fail - and as with DXY, fall away to find support from nearest structure to left. Time will tell...we need to remain patient in meantime.Note
DXY Pattern from Yesterday/TodayWe're all too familiar with this pattern in Bitcoin ...this is the Dollar doing exactly the same trick...only in super sloooow motion. All markets are the same because they are traded by humans, still, despite the bots - and human nature never change (except on the surface. If you want to know what human nature is really like go 5 meals without food. Then see how 'human' you feel.) As human nature never changes the patterns we make never change either. Just the speed we make them. If you can trade the cryptos markets do you realise yet that you can trade pretty much any market in which humans participate? Just gotta wait for the patterns to emerge and do the same as you've always done...just much slower, is all. And stops work much better in 'real' markets too, usually.
Note
DXY Longer Term Chart for those who like/appreciate technicals only...Note
HereNote
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The only overhead dynamic left lying around is this one on Bitfinex chart...not there on the other 2.Will need to keepan eye on this one for that reason...has to push through the line to stay good in very nearterm - but the last 2 hours of price action have bull engulfed days and days of bearishness - as if the bears have all packed up their pic-nics and headed back to the woods - strange. But Coinbase is just 10 or so points from the last line of resistance...same as usual here...if long and day trading can close out if you want and maybe get to buy 150 or 200 lower - but if not be ready to get long again or add once the dynamic here is broken through - from that point look to stay long and maybe add on dips if it goes well - all the way to 12279 - day traders may prefer to run a dynamic under the rally as it has been straight line for 2 hours now and use that as a nearterm exit - but again, if so look to get back long from 150 points or so lower - nearest clear support on Coinbase is at 8900 and whilst above here Bitcoin is still strong.
Note
Bitfinex Chart Update Another typo: nearest clear support on Bitfinex (NOT Coinbase) is at 8900 and whilst above here Bitcoin is still strong.
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