$BTC bounce to the low/mid 50ks? Then down to the $30ks again?
Updated
Alright, updated all of my previous analyses w/ thoughts that we're bouncing here rather than seeing further downside.
The initial support at
39K was hit, and while I thought we'd see further downside before a move up, it looks like we're bouncing here at 
41K and holding support.
I think the most likely scenario from here is for a bounce higher to play out and reject at either the 51k resistance or
54K resistance to the upside, reject at either one of those levels-- which would setup the downside move that I was expecting to either 34k or 
29K supports.
The reason why I'm expecting a bounce here is because we're forming a bottoming pattern on lower timeframes. The indicator that I use to measure momentum/strength is extremely oversold on many timeframes and because we started to see buy volume come in after the stock market closed today and saw an initial bounce.
Idea would be invalidated on a break and close below the lows at 39k.
Let's see what happens from here.
The initial support at
39K was hit, and while I thought we'd see further downside before a move up, it looks like we're bouncing here at 41K and holding support. I think the most likely scenario from here is for a bounce higher to play out and reject at either the 51k resistance or
54K resistance to the upside, reject at either one of those levels-- which would setup the downside move that I was expecting to either 34k or 29K supports.The reason why I'm expecting a bounce here is because we're forming a bottoming pattern on lower timeframes. The indicator that I use to measure momentum/strength is extremely oversold on many timeframes and because we started to see buy volume come in after the stock market closed today and saw an initial bounce.
Idea would be invalidated on a break and close below the lows at 39k.
Let's see what happens from here.
Note
There is the possibility of a move down at the stock market open. I still lean towards this move playing out if it can hold support at 39K but I've cut my positions in the meantime just to play it safe. I'll watch price action and reenter if we can hold above that level.Note
Alright sorry for changing direction so many times, but this market is choppy and hard to make sense of the direction. Just trying to update you as I see things change and get more clarity.My current thoughts are that I think this original idea will end up being correct that we still have some more downside to go in the short term. I think next week on the Jan 24th/25th, we will end up having a pivot that sends price action down further. Then we should bottom/rebound around Feb 14th.
How low do we go? I think we bottom at the 34k level or at the
29K level but lean towards the 34k level being where we stop.
Note
Okay held support. My bias is now back to the idea here. Let's see...
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