BTC and How I See It
Folks, I am not an expert at Technical Analysis. Everything I know about technical analysis, I learned from studying the IBD CAN-SLIM system, and from just watching charts for so many years. I believe that TA is an important tool in the tool box, but as a believer in long term investment I worry little about shorter term action. I believe that for the vast majority of people, long term investments are the only way to go - where will your investment be in a year or two from now? Do you think it will go up? Why do you think this? Find an idea, research it thoroughly, decide on your timeline- will you hold for a year, or three or five years? With this in mind, what is the longer term picture for BTC and should you be buying now, or not?
Folks, it is critical to understand that BTC and the CRYPTO market are subject to extreme manipulation, and therefore extreme volatility. It is only by taking a longer term view that the average investor can hope to succeed despite the market manipulations that occur, the purpose of which is to steal your money from you. There are only two fundamental forces that drive the markets - fear and greed. Only by mastering your fear and greed can you hope to achieve success because otherwise, you are just a pawn of the forces that manipulate and control the markets.
Just recently have seen BTC fall from its ATH of 65K by more than half to its present level. But what has fundamentally changed in the big picture to warrant this drop? Basically, nothing. Its just more manipulation. Yes, the world is struggling with a 100 year pandemic. But that tells you right there that this has happened before. The world has seen many pandemics, and yet it is still here. So the world is not going to end because of COVID. Yes, the world is facing a challenge. But it will recover. It is recovering now. The undeveloped nations pose the greatest challenge to ending the pandemic globally, and given the reliance of the developed world on the labor of the undeveloped, there will be supply disruptions. However, the developed world is recovering from COVID and as it continues to recover if will bring global resources to bear on the undeveloped nations, and gradually the world will recover. It will be a different world, but it will recover. For example, the International Monetary Fund has proposed a 50 billion dollar plan to end the pandemic by vaccinating at least 60 percent of the world population by the first half of 2022. The IMF estimates that this will inject 9 trillion dollars into the global economy by 2025.
Folks, the big players know that the world is going to recover, and that it is on the way to recovering right now. We had a bad news cycle just recently, with lots of gloom and doom being put out by a variety of sources and forces. They would have you believe BTC is going to crash tomorrow and it will all be over because the world is facing challenges. But I believe this bad news cycle is about over and we are about to enter a period where things are going to start looking up, and the news is going to get better as the recovery gains momentum. I believe that there is one final effort going on right now , by the forces that be, to drive BTC and the market in general down one final time so they can make one more smash and grab before the good news starts taking hold and people start to realise and accept that the world is starting to recover.
Therefore, taking all of this into account, I have looked at the charts for BTC on multiple time frames, paying attention more closely to the longer term frames. I believe that the final shakeout I mentioned above is about to end. I do not believe that the price of BTC will go below 30K and if it does, it won't stay down there for very long. I believe the the big players and their greed will step in, and I believe it has already been kicking in, to limit any extended period below 30K. Therefore, if you are considering buying for a longer term horizon, say a year or more, then I am now long on BTC and I do believe strongly that any price below 36K is a good place to start staggering in some buys, especially on any dips. Since as BTC goes, the rest of the market tends to follow, then I would also be looking to buy into some of the most promising ALTS out there. The big ones like ETH, CARDANO, LTC, etc. A rising tide lifts all ships, and although the tide has been falling for a little while it about to rise. That is my opinion. I welcome yours, especially if you disagree.
Folks, it is critical to understand that BTC and the CRYPTO market are subject to extreme manipulation, and therefore extreme volatility. It is only by taking a longer term view that the average investor can hope to succeed despite the market manipulations that occur, the purpose of which is to steal your money from you. There are only two fundamental forces that drive the markets - fear and greed. Only by mastering your fear and greed can you hope to achieve success because otherwise, you are just a pawn of the forces that manipulate and control the markets.
Just recently have seen BTC fall from its ATH of 65K by more than half to its present level. But what has fundamentally changed in the big picture to warrant this drop? Basically, nothing. Its just more manipulation. Yes, the world is struggling with a 100 year pandemic. But that tells you right there that this has happened before. The world has seen many pandemics, and yet it is still here. So the world is not going to end because of COVID. Yes, the world is facing a challenge. But it will recover. It is recovering now. The undeveloped nations pose the greatest challenge to ending the pandemic globally, and given the reliance of the developed world on the labor of the undeveloped, there will be supply disruptions. However, the developed world is recovering from COVID and as it continues to recover if will bring global resources to bear on the undeveloped nations, and gradually the world will recover. It will be a different world, but it will recover. For example, the International Monetary Fund has proposed a 50 billion dollar plan to end the pandemic by vaccinating at least 60 percent of the world population by the first half of 2022. The IMF estimates that this will inject 9 trillion dollars into the global economy by 2025.
Folks, the big players know that the world is going to recover, and that it is on the way to recovering right now. We had a bad news cycle just recently, with lots of gloom and doom being put out by a variety of sources and forces. They would have you believe BTC is going to crash tomorrow and it will all be over because the world is facing challenges. But I believe this bad news cycle is about over and we are about to enter a period where things are going to start looking up, and the news is going to get better as the recovery gains momentum. I believe that there is one final effort going on right now , by the forces that be, to drive BTC and the market in general down one final time so they can make one more smash and grab before the good news starts taking hold and people start to realise and accept that the world is starting to recover.
Therefore, taking all of this into account, I have looked at the charts for BTC on multiple time frames, paying attention more closely to the longer term frames. I believe that the final shakeout I mentioned above is about to end. I do not believe that the price of BTC will go below 30K and if it does, it won't stay down there for very long. I believe the the big players and their greed will step in, and I believe it has already been kicking in, to limit any extended period below 30K. Therefore, if you are considering buying for a longer term horizon, say a year or more, then I am now long on BTC and I do believe strongly that any price below 36K is a good place to start staggering in some buys, especially on any dips. Since as BTC goes, the rest of the market tends to follow, then I would also be looking to buy into some of the most promising ALTS out there. The big ones like ETH, CARDANO, LTC, etc. A rising tide lifts all ships, and although the tide has been falling for a little while it about to rise. That is my opinion. I welcome yours, especially if you disagree.
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