BitcoinShort
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 239)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “The 1h triangle comes to a head in about 13 hours. I can’t imagine consolidating $6,400 any longer than that.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 and short ETH:USD from $200.50
Patterns: Wyckoff hinge
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,383 | R: $6,419
BTCUSDSHORTS: Current candle is entirely below bottom or triangle, will be interested to see if it closes that way
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Hovering on it / neutral
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Weekly candle that just opened is well above / bullish
Long term trend ( 32 Week): bearish
Overall trend: Neutral
Volume: Lowest weekly volume since the price has been > $1,000
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Weekly doji | back to back daily dojis with tweezer top and tweezer bottom (never seen that before)
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud with strong support at $6,400 is starting to thin
TD’ Sequential: Weekly r4 | If Oct close < $6,390 then will be a r3 | 4h g2 is > g1 at $6,420
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th' (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018
Price action: 24h: +0.14% | 2w: -0.34% | 1m: -2.99%
Bollinger Bands: Price back above MA and top band in line with bear trend line. Indicates retest is likely
Trendline: At $6,520
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: 2 Up: $6,471 | 2 Down: $6,354
RSI: Stuck at 50
Stochastic: Monthly < 25 and looks like it is about 5 months away from bullish cross. Did a great job of calling the bottom of the last bear market
Summary: After the last couple days didn’t lead to any solid significant conclusions I thought it would be best to heed some age old wisdom:
when in doubt, zoom out
I do not like the monthly chart other than for calling extremes (tops/bottoms) and the current environment made me think it was worth another look. That led to the following post:
Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart
Using the Stochastic and TD’ Sequential I came to surprisingly similar conclusion as I did in the 3 Day Comparison where I used mostly moving averages and trendlines. That has given me more confidence in my target but I will not allow it to cloud my judgement.
I have not added any more to my position and I have not changed my overall game plan. I did call for the $6,400 trading range to come to an end by now and that turned out to be a bolder prediction that I thought.
Meanwhile the traditional markets are really heating up and I will continue focusing on them while waiting for this range to break. Orders are still set to add to my ETH position at $198.4 | $194.9 | $187.7
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “The 1h triangle comes to a head in about 13 hours. I can’t imagine consolidating $6,400 any longer than that.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 and short ETH:USD from $200.50
Patterns: Wyckoff hinge
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,383 | R: $6,419
BTCUSDSHORTS: Current candle is entirely below bottom or triangle, will be interested to see if it closes that way
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Hovering on it / neutral
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Weekly candle that just opened is well above / bullish
Long term trend ( 32 Week): bearish
Overall trend: Neutral
Volume: Lowest weekly volume since the price has been > $1,000
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Weekly doji | back to back daily dojis with tweezer top and tweezer bottom (never seen that before)
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud with strong support at $6,400 is starting to thin
TD’ Sequential: Weekly r4 | If Oct close < $6,390 then will be a r3 | 4h g2 is > g1 at $6,420
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th' (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018
Price action: 24h: +0.14% | 2w: -0.34% | 1m: -2.99%
Bollinger Bands: Price back above MA and top band in line with bear trend line. Indicates retest is likely
Trendline: At $6,520
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: 2 Up: $6,471 | 2 Down: $6,354
RSI: Stuck at 50
Stochastic: Monthly < 25 and looks like it is about 5 months away from bullish cross. Did a great job of calling the bottom of the last bear market
Summary: After the last couple days didn’t lead to any solid significant conclusions I thought it would be best to heed some age old wisdom:
when in doubt, zoom out
I do not like the monthly chart other than for calling extremes (tops/bottoms) and the current environment made me think it was worth another look. That led to the following post:
Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart
Using the Stochastic and TD’ Sequential I came to surprisingly similar conclusion as I did in the 3 Day Comparison where I used mostly moving averages and trendlines. That has given me more confidence in my target but I will not allow it to cloud my judgement.
I have not added any more to my position and I have not changed my overall game plan. I did call for the $6,400 trading range to come to an end by now and that turned out to be a bolder prediction that I thought.
Meanwhile the traditional markets are really heating up and I will continue focusing on them while waiting for this range to break. Orders are still set to add to my ETH position at $198.4 | $194.9 | $187.7
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.