I'm not going to try and predict whether not Bitcoin has begun what I believe to be its inevitable long term bear market, but I will look at some important trends and horizontal levels. For years, I've speculated that Bitcoin would have a hard time sustaining a significant new all-time high. It turns out, for the mean time, I've been correct in that assumption.
Bitcoin has now broken down from the ascending broadening wedge pattern that began in November, 2022. Here's the chart zoomed out:
There is still a chance for this to be a false breakdown, if buyers show up soon and take price back above that $87-90K resistance, which has become quite strong. However, ongoing global market news continues to remain bearish fundamentally, as many commodities and material objects will have to be repriced to the upside. At the same time, the FED is in a bind because if this causes a spike in unemployment, they will be more hesitant to lower rates, fearing greater inflation. This is the definition of stagflation.
In any case, zoomed in you can see that Bitcoin is in a downtrend channel - often a bullish pattern. My speculation is that Bitcoin will attempt to break down BELOW the channel, leading to a cascade of liquidations. This kind of drop can end around $69-71K on the shallow end, though can go much deeper from a structural standpoint. Outlined are all the support levels, and circled in red is a potential capitulation area.
If Bitcoin manages to bounce from the $60-70K level on high enough volume, depending on economic news, price can even make a new high. But we're not there yet by any means. This possibility is shown with the green arrow. On the other hand, if Bitcoin cannot bounce at the previous trend resistance (light blue line below the red local downtrend), price can retrace all the way towards $48-50K.
Let's see what happens!
Thanks for reading.
-Victor Cobra
Bitcoin has now broken down from the ascending broadening wedge pattern that began in November, 2022. Here's the chart zoomed out:
There is still a chance for this to be a false breakdown, if buyers show up soon and take price back above that $87-90K resistance, which has become quite strong. However, ongoing global market news continues to remain bearish fundamentally, as many commodities and material objects will have to be repriced to the upside. At the same time, the FED is in a bind because if this causes a spike in unemployment, they will be more hesitant to lower rates, fearing greater inflation. This is the definition of stagflation.
In any case, zoomed in you can see that Bitcoin is in a downtrend channel - often a bullish pattern. My speculation is that Bitcoin will attempt to break down BELOW the channel, leading to a cascade of liquidations. This kind of drop can end around $69-71K on the shallow end, though can go much deeper from a structural standpoint. Outlined are all the support levels, and circled in red is a potential capitulation area.
If Bitcoin manages to bounce from the $60-70K level on high enough volume, depending on economic news, price can even make a new high. But we're not there yet by any means. This possibility is shown with the green arrow. On the other hand, if Bitcoin cannot bounce at the previous trend resistance (light blue line below the red local downtrend), price can retrace all the way towards $48-50K.
Let's see what happens!
Thanks for reading.
-Victor Cobra
Note
This is really the highest Bitcoin should go in the near term in order to see further downside. If Bitcoin manages to break out here, we could see a second peak for this "cycle," though perhaps hard to imagine that it would be higher than $109K. Note
Bitcoin broke out of the local downtrend and has held the long term support rather well, given continued stock market weakness. The narrative is likely that Bitcoin is being seen as a safe haven - however, it is important to note that Bitcoin markets have access to money printing via USDT. The liquidity comes from somewhere. Let's see if it can break this horizontal resistance with conviction. Otherwise, it's just another test of the top of the range, and it can head down to the '$70k's again. Watching that blue trendline. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.