BTC - Scio me nihil scire
Updated
I have been permabull on bitcoin since a long time. But now things start to get more tricky.
Socaretes once said "I know that I know nothing".
I feel like that, I dont know if bitcoin will reach a new high from here or if we go in a correction. Knowing that I dont know it, I am looking to find a way to not miss out a new run but also not lose too much profits on the way down. Thats why I have been scaling out 30% into cash over the last month and looking to sell until 50% cash and 50% crypto. I don't see it as a mistake to take profit after such an increase even if bitcoin goes higher (don't be too greedy). Also the cashed out money can be used for other investments which have way lower downside risk.
At the same time I have a rule to never sell all my bitcoins because in the very longterm bitcoin should keep rising (deflation and adoption growth). And also we can never be sure where the top is and don't want to miss out and are forced to buying back higher.
From my technical analysis, I see it this way:
Bull:
In this case I would like to have some btc for sale in the $5000+ region
Bear:
In this case we need to find out if its only a correction or a long term trend reversal. Looking to buy in on oversold conditions with bullish divergences on the daily chart.
Socaretes once said "I know that I know nothing".
I feel like that, I dont know if bitcoin will reach a new high from here or if we go in a correction. Knowing that I dont know it, I am looking to find a way to not miss out a new run but also not lose too much profits on the way down. Thats why I have been scaling out 30% into cash over the last month and looking to sell until 50% cash and 50% crypto. I don't see it as a mistake to take profit after such an increase even if bitcoin goes higher (don't be too greedy). Also the cashed out money can be used for other investments which have way lower downside risk.
At the same time I have a rule to never sell all my bitcoins because in the very longterm bitcoin should keep rising (deflation and adoption growth). And also we can never be sure where the top is and don't want to miss out and are forced to buying back higher.
From my technical analysis, I see it this way:
Bull:
- Monthly RSI keeps rising in a unbelievable manner til 96 as in previous bubbles
- Price goes above the 4.236 fib ($4000+) like in previous bubbles
In this case I would like to have some btc for sale in the $5000+ region
Bear:
- Market corrects as before and keeps holding the old uptrend ($1800-$1200)
- Market goes into a bear market after falling and holding below the old all time high and retraces up to 70%.
In this case we need to find out if its only a correction or a long term trend reversal. Looking to buy in on oversold conditions with bullish divergences on the daily chart.
Note
triangle pattern Note
Price could not sustain while there is uncertainty about the segwit deployment. UASF is coming closer. Good to hold some cash to buy low again once the deployment is resolved and longest chain has established.Note
the rebound is stronger than expected, might form the same fractal as before? 
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