BTCUSD 1D Heikin, RSI and MACD - Dec 17th, 2018
This chart uses Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with CM TrendBars (21D), EMAs (9,15,21,55), RSI (13D, 80/20 ranges) and a MACD indicator.
The Heikin Ashi candlesticks are a different type of candlestick pattern, meaning ‘average bar’ in Japanese, which reduce underlying noise and produce a smoother looking candlestick pattern. The ‘smoother’ candlestick patterns is because Heikin Ashi takes the price bar and averages out the prices, vs the traditional candlestick that simply uses the high and low of the session. As a result, it helps reduce false signals and therefore a Heikin Ashi chart tends to be more red in a downtrend than traditional chart styles.
The candlestick pattern continues it's bearish trend, with no green candles since the 13th of November. We are seeing a tightening of the candle bodies over the last week, with spinning tops on 5 of the last 8 days. While the other three days were 'hanging' men candles with reasonably large bodies. This indicates indecision in the market, and consolidation, around the closest level of resistance, the 3285 print level. Today, with 3 hrs to go, could post the 1st green candle in 2 weeks but the day's has not yet closed.
The RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Once we have identified a trend in the market we can use the RSI to identify how strong that trend is (will it continue or reverse). I set the outliers at 80/20, that is below 20 it is oversold and above 80 it is overbought. Because we are in a long term downtrend, it is worth noting that the RSI will be in the under 20 more than above 80, and that I should consider 10 or below as a more reliable oversold signal.
The RSI has remained below 30 since the 14th of November, and has hovered around the 20 area since the 28th of November (3 weeks). A minor point worth noting is that it has touched the 20 line three times since the 28th of November crossover and basically remained above 20. Over the same period the price range has continued to contract and remain in a tightening band. If we see the RSI break above 30 and head towards 65, this could indicate a trend change and a bullish signal. Until then, we really cannot make any trading positions on the current weak divergence.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a trend following momentum indicator that shows the relationships between 2 MA's, the MACD (26-12 day MA) and the Signal line (9D). As we can safely assume that the two MA will move towards an equilibrium over time, we can make assertions about price in several key ways including crossovers, divergences between the two MAs, and divergence between the MACD and the price. The MACD Histogram = MACD - Signal Line, and it is simply a more visible indication of the difference between the true.
The MACD Histogram is visually the clearest signal to read, and it provides the earliest indication of a possible trend change. Since the 26th of November it turned more bullish, crossing the 'zero' line on 2nd of December. It weakened from the 6-9th, but then returned to a more bullish trend. We saw the MACD cross over the Signal line on the 2nd of December, and as above touch it again on the 8th, before continuing it's bullish trend (although relatively weak) up until today. As the price has continued down since the 26th this is a clear divergence from the MACD and it indicates a lack of bearish strength and a possible price retracement/reversal in the future.
If the market posts a green candle by the end of the day, this would add further confluence to the probability of a change in trend.
The Heikin Ashi candlesticks are a different type of candlestick pattern, meaning ‘average bar’ in Japanese, which reduce underlying noise and produce a smoother looking candlestick pattern. The ‘smoother’ candlestick patterns is because Heikin Ashi takes the price bar and averages out the prices, vs the traditional candlestick that simply uses the high and low of the session. As a result, it helps reduce false signals and therefore a Heikin Ashi chart tends to be more red in a downtrend than traditional chart styles.
The candlestick pattern continues it's bearish trend, with no green candles since the 13th of November. We are seeing a tightening of the candle bodies over the last week, with spinning tops on 5 of the last 8 days. While the other three days were 'hanging' men candles with reasonably large bodies. This indicates indecision in the market, and consolidation, around the closest level of resistance, the 3285 print level. Today, with 3 hrs to go, could post the 1st green candle in 2 weeks but the day's has not yet closed.
The RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Once we have identified a trend in the market we can use the RSI to identify how strong that trend is (will it continue or reverse). I set the outliers at 80/20, that is below 20 it is oversold and above 80 it is overbought. Because we are in a long term downtrend, it is worth noting that the RSI will be in the under 20 more than above 80, and that I should consider 10 or below as a more reliable oversold signal.
The RSI has remained below 30 since the 14th of November, and has hovered around the 20 area since the 28th of November (3 weeks). A minor point worth noting is that it has touched the 20 line three times since the 28th of November crossover and basically remained above 20. Over the same period the price range has continued to contract and remain in a tightening band. If we see the RSI break above 30 and head towards 65, this could indicate a trend change and a bullish signal. Until then, we really cannot make any trading positions on the current weak divergence.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a trend following momentum indicator that shows the relationships between 2 MA's, the MACD (26-12 day MA) and the Signal line (9D). As we can safely assume that the two MA will move towards an equilibrium over time, we can make assertions about price in several key ways including crossovers, divergences between the two MAs, and divergence between the MACD and the price. The MACD Histogram = MACD - Signal Line, and it is simply a more visible indication of the difference between the true.
The MACD Histogram is visually the clearest signal to read, and it provides the earliest indication of a possible trend change. Since the 26th of November it turned more bullish, crossing the 'zero' line on 2nd of December. It weakened from the 6-9th, but then returned to a more bullish trend. We saw the MACD cross over the Signal line on the 2nd of December, and as above touch it again on the 8th, before continuing it's bullish trend (although relatively weak) up until today. As the price has continued down since the 26th this is a clear divergence from the MACD and it indicates a lack of bearish strength and a possible price retracement/reversal in the future.
If the market posts a green candle by the end of the day, this would add further confluence to the probability of a change in trend.
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