BitcoinUpdated We're goin' down down down in a burning ring of fire - BTC
Good Morning, Good Evening, and/or Good Night. Thank you for reading this update on the ever so wild and manic world of Bitcoin. This thing is starting to give me mood swings!
The BIG question is, how far down will we/can we go???
So, looking at the chart above we can go ALL the way back to our peak in mid-December and see that ever since we have been, and are currently still in, a downtrend. Yes, we have had moments of hope and thoughts of if and when we would see the elusive 20k number again, but what goes up must come down, and currently we are still. going. down.
I have drawn a line on the RSI at the 50 mark. IF you look at this, the times we have been above 50 we can see we were in a strong trend of upward movement with this line showing us support. When we fell below this line it has acted as resistance and we were in a trend of downward movement. Currently we are seeing this line show us resistance as we are below this signal line.
Looking at the DMI I have drawn another line at the 25 mark. When the ADX is above this line AND either the "-" or the "+" is above this signal line as well, we see directional movement in that direction. So, currently the ADX is above the signal line AND the -DM is above the signal line showing us we are in and probably going to continue in downward movement.
Also, the MACA has crossed over and showing bearish signals. With all 3 of these together we can say this is a pretty solid indication we are going down, down, down.
You say, "But you still haven't answered the BIG question. How far will we go??" Well, we all have our fancy charts and show our flags, and retracements, and patterns, and waves, and all the other nic-nac-patty-wac's we can find... And these are great technicals to showcase were we could go, but the fact is that in any long projections in the world of Bitcoin we just don't know.
I can say for certain we are going down for the moment. And, I have given you 4 support zones and 3 resistance zones, and displayed with certainty the downward channel we are in. IF we break one of these supports or resistance zones we will re-assess the charts and update the analysis. However, I will remain bearish on Bitcoin until we can break out of this down channel.
For now, I'm on the sideline, watching and waiting.
IF I get 20 likes I will post an update!
Happy Trading :)
Much Love
DustyPH
*all comments are welcome*
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell***
The BIG question is, how far down will we/can we go???
So, looking at the chart above we can go ALL the way back to our peak in mid-December and see that ever since we have been, and are currently still in, a downtrend. Yes, we have had moments of hope and thoughts of if and when we would see the elusive 20k number again, but what goes up must come down, and currently we are still. going. down.
I have drawn a line on the RSI at the 50 mark. IF you look at this, the times we have been above 50 we can see we were in a strong trend of upward movement with this line showing us support. When we fell below this line it has acted as resistance and we were in a trend of downward movement. Currently we are seeing this line show us resistance as we are below this signal line.
Looking at the DMI I have drawn another line at the 25 mark. When the ADX is above this line AND either the "-" or the "+" is above this signal line as well, we see directional movement in that direction. So, currently the ADX is above the signal line AND the -DM is above the signal line showing us we are in and probably going to continue in downward movement.
Also, the MACA has crossed over and showing bearish signals. With all 3 of these together we can say this is a pretty solid indication we are going down, down, down.
You say, "But you still haven't answered the BIG question. How far will we go??" Well, we all have our fancy charts and show our flags, and retracements, and patterns, and waves, and all the other nic-nac-patty-wac's we can find... And these are great technicals to showcase were we could go, but the fact is that in any long projections in the world of Bitcoin we just don't know.
I can say for certain we are going down for the moment. And, I have given you 4 support zones and 3 resistance zones, and displayed with certainty the downward channel we are in. IF we break one of these supports or resistance zones we will re-assess the charts and update the analysis. However, I will remain bearish on Bitcoin until we can break out of this down channel.
For now, I'm on the sideline, watching and waiting.
IF I get 20 likes I will post an update!
Happy Trading :)
Much Love
DustyPH
*all comments are welcome*
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell***
Note
I have a dotted line around the 7900k mark where I thought we would bounce and we did! However we are not seeing anything to say we are going to reverse from here.And yes, I may have been a little dramatic with the title, but CASH can always be an inspiration... in more than one way.
A drop to the 7180k range is next.
Note
Here is a perfect example of the DMI and why sometimes a crossover doesn't necessarily mean much. Looking at the DMI, the +DM crossed the -DM earlier today but we didn't see much movenment. That's because the ADX and the RSI are showing us there is not much strenghth behind what is going on right now and therefore relatively no trend to indicate anything different or signal we could be reversing. I expect we will cross back over with the -DM back on top soon (btw, the MACD already has) and then as we see the ADX and RSI rise and we will see a continuation of falling further, possibly to around 7100 - 7200k, or farther :/Note
The last bear flag took 11 candles to break down and then we fell from roughly 9k to roughly 7.8k. The current bear flag we are in is in it's 10th candle... SO, if we are to see a similar repeat, and all technical indicators show a strong possibility of that, in the next 4-8 hours I expect to see this bear flag break down. (It definitely could be sooner or take longer, just going off the last and most recent one)The ADX is currently above out signal line. The -DM is above our signal line. and the RSI is still showing the line I have drawn as resistance. All signifying a bearish market and that we are indeed going to go lower. When? Well, I think this bear flag will break down today, possibly sooner than later.
Thanks again for all who have read my analysis, charts, and commented and/or liked! You all rock!
Note
The RSI was just rejected at the 50 mark which is our signal line, AND the "-DM" and the ADX are both above 25 (which is our signal line on the DMI) and turning up. I still believe we will fall to around the 7100-7200k range and then we will need to reassess all the charts and see if we are going to fall further or try to bounce up and out of the down channel from there. If we do fall a continuation to a new low for the year is definitely possibly. I will post a new BTC/USD chart soon.
Note
Also we we're rejected at the last resistance line I have around the 8525k mark, proving this is our resistance. All this together shows weakness in movement and the trend. Highly likely to fall lower.Note
Headed to 7.2k... next support. Watch closely to see if we can hold there or if we will fall lowerNote
7.7k and dropping... Let's keep a close watch on what happens around the 7.2k markNote
7.5k and falling... The next support is crucialNote
We just had a nice bounce from about the 7400k mark and are making our way back to the resistance line. Currently as we speak the +DM just crossed the -DM and the ADX is still above our signal line. This could indicate a bullish run about to start, we have also broke out of the falling wedge. The RSI is holding steady around the 50-55 range.We didn't fall to 7200k like I thought (we still could), but BTC may be looking to the upside.
So what do we need to see: 1) The RSI hold above 50 and show this level on the RSI as support. 2)The +DM to stay above the signal line of 25 and really the ADX as well. If the ADX falls below and the +DM stays above we could see a reversal or just not much price movement at all. And 3) We need to see BTC break this resistance zone I have marked on the chart above. If it falls from here we will be headed to around the 7200k range again, and another fall from this resistance line could send us down further.
LIKE if you LIKE!!
Happy Trading!
Note
New chart posted below... Analysing the VWMA vs the SMA and comparing that with the RSI... Check it out! Thanks for all the views and Likes! Will post an update on the new chart soon
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