I have been looking at previous price action of BTC following halving. The vertical lines are the months when BTC halving took place Here is what I noticed:
1. The peak of the bull run following halving is decreasing. From the month of halving to the peak of the bull run the increases were 9,100% (91x) (2012), followed by 2,000% (20x) (2016) and more recently 650% (6.5x) (2020);
2. There are usually a few months following halving when the bull run actually get under way, so expect a period of relatively non-activity or even negativity;
3. The peak occurs between 11 and 17 months; and
4. The price usually peaks twice.
What are your thoughts / observations?
1. The peak of the bull run following halving is decreasing. From the month of halving to the peak of the bull run the increases were 9,100% (91x) (2012), followed by 2,000% (20x) (2016) and more recently 650% (6.5x) (2020);
2. There are usually a few months following halving when the bull run actually get under way, so expect a period of relatively non-activity or even negativity;
3. The peak occurs between 11 and 17 months; and
4. The price usually peaks twice.
What are your thoughts / observations?
Note
Having done some rough "at the bag of an envelope calculation" I am predicting BTC price to increase y 2.92 following halving. Given the current price, which is around 3 1/2 months before the event, I expect it to reach around $120k.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.