BEARS WON THIS ROUND - Where do we go from here?
Happy Friday folks! Our calls have been quite on point the past couple of days. Having confidence in the direction our portfolio may be headed, is quite a big stress reliever. That said, let's get into a BTC analysis that takes an even further step back.
Last night, our chart predicted pretty much on the minute to when we'd start falling again. From our given trajectory, it's becoming quite obvious that our target of 6000 will eventually be hit. Let's lay out our options from the 6000 mark.
A. THE BOUNCE
This has been what I've been expecting even when we were still up at the 8200 level. I still think that a double bottom at 6000, with a quick pop back up is still in play. However, the real lack of volume has been concerning me, which is reducing the chances of this happening. The 7200 level was broken fairly fast, and we have been continuing to head downward since then. Bottoms are normally found after a very high volume dump, followed by a high volume buy back. However, our dumping has been happening on moderate volume, with not much buying. I would even go as far as to say that the action happening right now, are traders trading amongst themselves, with quick long stops, followed by fast short squeezes.
In short, a bounce at 6000 is still in the cards - a very likely one at that. However, the weaker our descent down to 6000, would indicate a weaker bounce as well. A re-evaluation from the bounce would need to happen once it occurs in order to determine whether we'll be test an upward breakout from bear channel, or cycle downward once again.
B. THE FIZZLE POP
With so much attention leaving crypto, it would not surprise me if we continued trading sideways or even down to the right for a couple weeks/months. If we go through historic price movement, we'd have two different options here.
2014: We'd slowly fizzle downwards, pop, and then continue fizzling out, rinse, repeat.
2015/2016: Accumulation phase lasting for months at a time, until we eventually break out upwards.
I ran some correlation analysis, and the most likely scenario to follow in this case would be 2016 (80+% correlation to our current price movement). It's important to note that our landscape is completely different this time around though. Much more institutional eyes, with regulation just right around the corner. Volume is also much higher than what it used to be.
C. THE CRASH
The lack of volume in the markets would indicate the lack of new money entering BTC. With such a slow descent thus far, it's becoming more and more possible that we'll BEAR flag after reaching 6000, and dip further below. Between 5000 and 6000 is where I would start to see some accumulation happening. Breaking below this order block however, would indicate a further dip down to next support of about 4400. It's important to note that between 4400 and 6000 is a very thinly traded area, which is why I've emphasized this portion in green on our chart. In order to feel any real support, we'd need to fill this gap in on our chart.
Expect some chop from 6000 down to 4400 to fill the chart in a bit. We would not be able to make any real predictions again until we go below 4400. After 4400, the next dangerous support line would be 3000. We're digging deep down here now, so we'll leave any analysis of this area out. That would be a > 50% crash from here.
________________
I'm quite undecided across the three of them thus far, I've tried ordering them by order of probability. We are not trying to be right here. The point of this is simply to give us a broader picture of what can realistically happen. This will give us scope for when we make shorter time frame calls.
Hope this gives you guys perspective to where I'm coming from in my short term calls!
You're responsible for your own choices, this is my own personal analysis and there are always risks involved. I try to lay out the potential risk:reward in the near future for entertainment purposes only.
gl;hf
Last night, our chart predicted pretty much on the minute to when we'd start falling again. From our given trajectory, it's becoming quite obvious that our target of 6000 will eventually be hit. Let's lay out our options from the 6000 mark.
A. THE BOUNCE
This has been what I've been expecting even when we were still up at the 8200 level. I still think that a double bottom at 6000, with a quick pop back up is still in play. However, the real lack of volume has been concerning me, which is reducing the chances of this happening. The 7200 level was broken fairly fast, and we have been continuing to head downward since then. Bottoms are normally found after a very high volume dump, followed by a high volume buy back. However, our dumping has been happening on moderate volume, with not much buying. I would even go as far as to say that the action happening right now, are traders trading amongst themselves, with quick long stops, followed by fast short squeezes.
In short, a bounce at 6000 is still in the cards - a very likely one at that. However, the weaker our descent down to 6000, would indicate a weaker bounce as well. A re-evaluation from the bounce would need to happen once it occurs in order to determine whether we'll be test an upward breakout from bear channel, or cycle downward once again.
B. THE FIZZLE POP
With so much attention leaving crypto, it would not surprise me if we continued trading sideways or even down to the right for a couple weeks/months. If we go through historic price movement, we'd have two different options here.
2014: We'd slowly fizzle downwards, pop, and then continue fizzling out, rinse, repeat.
2015/2016: Accumulation phase lasting for months at a time, until we eventually break out upwards.
I ran some correlation analysis, and the most likely scenario to follow in this case would be 2016 (80+% correlation to our current price movement). It's important to note that our landscape is completely different this time around though. Much more institutional eyes, with regulation just right around the corner. Volume is also much higher than what it used to be.
C. THE CRASH
The lack of volume in the markets would indicate the lack of new money entering BTC. With such a slow descent thus far, it's becoming more and more possible that we'll BEAR flag after reaching 6000, and dip further below. Between 5000 and 6000 is where I would start to see some accumulation happening. Breaking below this order block however, would indicate a further dip down to next support of about 4400. It's important to note that between 4400 and 6000 is a very thinly traded area, which is why I've emphasized this portion in green on our chart. In order to feel any real support, we'd need to fill this gap in on our chart.
Expect some chop from 6000 down to 4400 to fill the chart in a bit. We would not be able to make any real predictions again until we go below 4400. After 4400, the next dangerous support line would be 3000. We're digging deep down here now, so we'll leave any analysis of this area out. That would be a > 50% crash from here.
________________
I'm quite undecided across the three of them thus far, I've tried ordering them by order of probability. We are not trying to be right here. The point of this is simply to give us a broader picture of what can realistically happen. This will give us scope for when we make shorter time frame calls.
Hope this gives you guys perspective to where I'm coming from in my short term calls!
You're responsible for your own choices, this is my own personal analysis and there are always risks involved. I try to lay out the potential risk:reward in the near future for entertainment purposes only.
gl;hf
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