Bakkt Into A Corner
Updated
We are all waiting for Godot, ahh, I mean Bakkt. He has been a long time coming and by Monday all will be well. Birds (moon boys) will be singing and flowers will be blooming. At least that is what we were told. In the mean time we have one ugly chart to look at. I haven't seen a chart this ugly since the massive sell off in August. It appears to me we will retest the bounce zone around 9350. Let's hope we bounce off of it and move above 10k quickly. But I don't see that happening.
But of course we have Bakkt coming to our rescue on Monday. If it wasn't for that, then we'd be in a real pickle. We all know Bakkt will boost the Bitcoin price because it settles in real BTC and we will have increased demand, right? Well not quite. What most people may not realize Bakkt settles using OTC BTC so it won't really affect the price. Unless OTC runs out of BTC and I don't see that happening. Plus I believe Bakkt has been buying up BTC for months, likely at the 3.2k bottom so they should have a really large supply of it that they can pawn off on, (cough cough), provide to their customers. And of course the Bakkt customers can also short BTC driving the price down even lower. They wouldn't do that to us, by twisting the knife a little more, would they? We will find out by the end of next week whether we are still singing the praises of Bakkt or if we are all homeless living under a bridge drinking ripple (pun intended).
Paint me skeptical about Bakkt. We might be a nice bounce on Monday but unless we break through 12k, we are still treading water.
But of course we have Bakkt coming to our rescue on Monday. If it wasn't for that, then we'd be in a real pickle. We all know Bakkt will boost the Bitcoin price because it settles in real BTC and we will have increased demand, right? Well not quite. What most people may not realize Bakkt settles using OTC BTC so it won't really affect the price. Unless OTC runs out of BTC and I don't see that happening. Plus I believe Bakkt has been buying up BTC for months, likely at the 3.2k bottom so they should have a really large supply of it that they can pawn off on, (cough cough), provide to their customers. And of course the Bakkt customers can also short BTC driving the price down even lower. They wouldn't do that to us, by twisting the knife a little more, would they? We will find out by the end of next week whether we are still singing the praises of Bakkt or if we are all homeless living under a bridge drinking ripple (pun intended).
Paint me skeptical about Bakkt. We might be a nice bounce on Monday but unless we break through 12k, we are still treading water.
Note
With all due respect to Ernest Thayer, what happened today reminded me of the end of his poem."Casey at Bakkt"
"Oh, somewhere in this favoured land the sun is shining bright,
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light;
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout,
But there is no joy in Mudville—mighty Casey has struck out."
Bakkt came and went today, and like Casey there were no cheers today. The moon boys had their heads hung low, staring at their feet wondering how they could have been so wrong. All of the Bakkt rhetoric we endured for the past 12 months has fizzled out. But in all fairness the effect of Bakkt won't be felt for weeks, perhaps months. And Bakkt may not be favorable to the BTC price after all. Bakkt was put in place first in order to control the Bitcoin price using futures that are leveraged. It is like putting a leash on BTC so it won't run away to higher prices.
That is why I think so many ETF's were not approved. The CFTC did not want to give the power of influencing the BTC price to an outsider that was not under their control. By the end of the year once Bakkt is fully operational and can influence the price up or down, I expect CFTC to approve a couple of Bitcoin ETFs. LedgerX is suing CFTC for breach of duty. I guess no one told them the CFTC plays favorites using their old boys' network and CFTC simply wanted their teammate Bakkt to get first approval.
cryptoslate.com/ledgerx-suing-cftc-breach-duty-botched-bitcoin-futures-launch/
Yesterday I said " In the mean time we have one ugly chart to look at. I haven't seen a chart this ugly since the massive sell off in August.". After today's dramatic drop of 2.25% things have not gotten any prettier. We are halfway to the Bounce Zone and we may reach it before Friday if we keep dropping at this rate or by next week if we get some sideways movement. There is a lot of support at 9.3k and I'm hoping we get a bounce off of it. Even a dead cat bounce would be nice.
If we break through 9k then we are headed to 8k and maybe even 7.5k. We are getting further and further away from the top of the descending wedge with lower highs. The only barrier that can stop us from falling further into the abyss is the bounce zone at 9.3k.
This rapid price decline is likely engineered to wrestle more Bitcoin from the weak hands. I still expect to see 15k by the end of the year and a very bullish 2020. But we may need to go much lower before we can go higher. This is a psychological game they are playing with us.
The Bitcoin price should be moving much higher this week after the announcement the Federal Reserve is printing $75 billion A DAY to prop up the banks. Compare that with the TARP bailout in 2008 that was "only" $750 billion, or about 10 days worth of our current bailout. This is massive money printing and it will not end well for the dollar. But it will end well for Bitcoin. We just have to be patient and wait for the proper pitch. :-)
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