Bitcoin Daily Update (day 326)
Updated
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Consensio: (Using 4, 9 and 50 EMA’s) M MA < S MA < P < L MA
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel
Horizontals: R: $3,679 | Testing $3,525 for support
Trendline: Bear channel
Parabolic SAR: $3,359
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.8% spread. Pay close attention to the 2 week high. If we break down that (currently $3,766) and re enter Contango then it is a strong sell signal.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pretty neutral, not much to glean at these levels.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Thin could above 50 EMA represents little resistance if we can breakthrough the EMA.
Relative Strength Index: Above 50, pulling back for retest
Average Directional Index: Rolled over and back below 25, indicating no / weak trend
Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +5.5% | 1m: +0.6%
Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band. MA = $3,494
Stochastic Oscillator: Daily sell signal
Summary: Have been watching the charts very closely, expecting some volatility to be right around the corner. I have been experimenting with EMA’s instead of MA’s and I am really starting to like the change. I have also adjusted the inputs to 4/9/50. Looking at the 50 day EMA right now and you can see why I like it.
That is my key area of resistance. If we can close a daily candle above then I expect a lot of buying volume to follow. The ichimoku cloud shows little built up resistance above that area which confirms my suspicion.
That being said it will not be easy to close above the 50 EMA. It is trending down and has been acting as strong resistance. If we stay below it for another 24 - 48 hours then I am expecting us to take out the two week low and re enter Contango. If that happens I will be going short.
The lower TF’s just took out $3,575 support and that should result in two scenarios, both of which come with volatility:
It’s either a shakeout before the breakout, or it was the top of this rally. Still slightly too early to tell, but I expect it to be much more clear by this time tomorrow.
I am still long, however I have started to scale out and I would not be looking to re enter until we close above the 50 EMA.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: (Using 4, 9 and 50 EMA’s) M MA < S MA < P < L MA
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel
Horizontals: R: $3,679 | Testing $3,525 for support
Trendline: Bear channel
Parabolic SAR: $3,359
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.8% spread. Pay close attention to the 2 week high. If we break down that (currently $3,766) and re enter Contango then it is a strong sell signal.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pretty neutral, not much to glean at these levels.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Thin could above 50 EMA represents little resistance if we can breakthrough the EMA.
Relative Strength Index: Above 50, pulling back for retest
Average Directional Index: Rolled over and back below 25, indicating no / weak trend
Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +5.5% | 1m: +0.6%
Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band. MA = $3,494
Stochastic Oscillator: Daily sell signal
Summary: Have been watching the charts very closely, expecting some volatility to be right around the corner. I have been experimenting with EMA’s instead of MA’s and I am really starting to like the change. I have also adjusted the inputs to 4/9/50. Looking at the 50 day EMA right now and you can see why I like it.
That is my key area of resistance. If we can close a daily candle above then I expect a lot of buying volume to follow. The ichimoku cloud shows little built up resistance above that area which confirms my suspicion.
That being said it will not be easy to close above the 50 EMA. It is trending down and has been acting as strong resistance. If we stay below it for another 24 - 48 hours then I am expecting us to take out the two week low and re enter Contango. If that happens I will be going short.
The lower TF’s just took out $3,575 support and that should result in two scenarios, both of which come with volatility:
It’s either a shakeout before the breakout, or it was the top of this rally. Still slightly too early to tell, but I expect it to be much more clear by this time tomorrow.
I am still long, however I have started to scale out and I would not be looking to re enter until we close above the 50 EMA.
Note
No time for Daily Update today. On my way out the door to eat some sushi and play in pool league. However, the market is still at a very crucial crossroads. I am watching the TL on the 1h chart below and will be feeling quite bullish if we can broke through it along with the 50 day EMA at ~$3,700. If that doesn't happen soon then I am expecting a sharp move to the downside. Cheers!Note
Am very interested in XRP right now. It is coming off a daily red 9 + combo 13 and is in the vicinity of a bullish 200 EMA. 
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