Analyzing this phase of the BTC cycle
My work in the chart should be pretty self explanatory. It's nothing that's reinventing the wheel or anything, I just point out the most important levels that we need to watch out for based on my 10 years of crypto experience and the Halving cycle model that I've had great success with
The Bear warning line is generated from the idea that BTC, being a volatile market, can have massive price dips without derailing the bull run on the long term. Historically the lowest dip we've ever seen in a bull run was nearly %70. Any time we've dipped lower we went into a prolonged bear season. From our ath of around 63k we land right around 19k. Any lower than that and we are almost certainly in a bear market.
The primary trend line should be obvious, but it's still important to note where it is, and the slope that it's on. If we stay inside the sideways pressure of the "crab zone" that btc has set up between 30k and 50k We should have no problem breaking that trend line in august/september. Even if we start to trend lower as long as we don't break the bear line at 19k oct-nov is when we could expect the run to resume. The Trend could resume even earlier, but it would be a bit surprising for me.
Final thing to note is the previous trend line and how volume starts to die off right as the price strays from the trend line. We still reached higher highs after coming off of that line, but I saw a lot of people redrawing their trend lines and not taking perhaps one of the earliest warning signs available to them as a sign that the local top was near.
My price target for if the run resumes the way it should is between 100k and 300k, depending on how long we take to get there and how much diminishing returns we get compared to previous cycles. I personally tend to err conservative and I expect close to 130k give or take 10k.
If you really don't know what I'm talking about, think there's no way the trend could resume, that we're going to be waiting for another 3 years, I suggest checking out resources like the Halving Tracker on Twitter. I'd make a similar chart, if I could figure out how to stack the cycles on top of each other like that....
I'm still kind of new to TradingView, so I'm still learning how to use this chart, so pardon me for the fairly basic analysis. There's a number of things I'd like to show people comparing this halving cycle to previous halving cycles, but I think for right now these simple things are probably the most important things to look at. My work is mostly useful for longer term investment plays rather than short term trades, but I feel like both sides could get value from this input. I am a chemist and a musician, not a finance guy, but I have had great luck trading BTC according to the halving cycle for a decade and I see nothing that convinces me that there's a drastic enough change from that model to change my strategy.
The Bear warning line is generated from the idea that BTC, being a volatile market, can have massive price dips without derailing the bull run on the long term. Historically the lowest dip we've ever seen in a bull run was nearly %70. Any time we've dipped lower we went into a prolonged bear season. From our ath of around 63k we land right around 19k. Any lower than that and we are almost certainly in a bear market.
The primary trend line should be obvious, but it's still important to note where it is, and the slope that it's on. If we stay inside the sideways pressure of the "crab zone" that btc has set up between 30k and 50k We should have no problem breaking that trend line in august/september. Even if we start to trend lower as long as we don't break the bear line at 19k oct-nov is when we could expect the run to resume. The Trend could resume even earlier, but it would be a bit surprising for me.
Final thing to note is the previous trend line and how volume starts to die off right as the price strays from the trend line. We still reached higher highs after coming off of that line, but I saw a lot of people redrawing their trend lines and not taking perhaps one of the earliest warning signs available to them as a sign that the local top was near.
My price target for if the run resumes the way it should is between 100k and 300k, depending on how long we take to get there and how much diminishing returns we get compared to previous cycles. I personally tend to err conservative and I expect close to 130k give or take 10k.
If you really don't know what I'm talking about, think there's no way the trend could resume, that we're going to be waiting for another 3 years, I suggest checking out resources like the Halving Tracker on Twitter. I'd make a similar chart, if I could figure out how to stack the cycles on top of each other like that....
I'm still kind of new to TradingView, so I'm still learning how to use this chart, so pardon me for the fairly basic analysis. There's a number of things I'd like to show people comparing this halving cycle to previous halving cycles, but I think for right now these simple things are probably the most important things to look at. My work is mostly useful for longer term investment plays rather than short term trades, but I feel like both sides could get value from this input. I am a chemist and a musician, not a finance guy, but I have had great luck trading BTC according to the halving cycle for a decade and I see nothing that convinces me that there's a drastic enough change from that model to change my strategy.
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